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doc

TW Patron++
Registered: 12/01/04
Posts: 475
Reply with quote  #1 

Most technical tools we follow have time period where they seem to work better than other time periods where often the current situation or context seems to be the reason why. Shorter duration Hurst cycles have not worked very well over the past year and it is my belief that this is because the price cycles have been overwhelmed by repetitive waves of powerful market moving fundamental news. Stated another way, I think that shorter duration Hurst cycles are less reliable for trading when the VIX and the ATR (average true range) are high. That said, the longer duration Hurst cycles like the 80 week cycle may offer some valid low points to watch out for.

Using Airedale's last phasing, which I believe to be correct, the last two 4.5 year lows were in March 2003 and August 2007. Since the Aug 07 low, we are now 75 weeks along this first 80 wk cycle. Hurst had observed that cycle lengths tend to run slightly longer in bear markets and slightly shorter in bull markets. He also advised to take an average of the last three cycles for estimating the timing of the next low. The average for the last three 80 wk cycles is 76.7 wks. The first 80 wk low off the Mar 03 lows early in the bull market was a bit on the short side. The average of the last two 80 wk cycles is 78.5 wks. Based on this, I expect the next 80wk cycle low to be dead ahead in the next 1.7 to 3.5 weeks. Allowing for variance, it could be anytime in the next 1-5 weeks. Not great help for timing trades perhaps, but it does suggest that caution is warrented until you are satisfied that the 80wk low is in (FLD crossings, valid trendline crossings, etc). See chart.

" align=baseline border=0>

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p45849756407&a=159773488&listNum=10



The current FLD crossing has projected a downside target of 785-790 area on the SPX cash +/- 15 points. We have hit that range already. As you have probably noticed, volatility increased this past week. I expect it to increase further until this 80 wk low is carved out.

Doc

relax

TW Patron
Registered: 04/17/08
Posts: 38
Reply with quote  #2 
don't know if it is simply because i have started looking at cycles again, but the shorter duration cycles seem to have come back working well

whether this signals more "orderly" markets with less "paulsonistic"-intervention, i don't know, but maybe these shorter cycles will work better from now on

since 10/10 we have clear 5 week bottoms at 11/21 and 12/29, one lower and one higher bottom

next one should be up in two weeks

I have not really read too much about the FLD crosses - are they available on stockcharts

would be great if you can post the fld cross/projection next time it happens

cheers

dowdeva

TW Patron +
Registered: 09/16/07
Posts: 4
Reply with quote  #3 
Doc,

Thanks for the analysis. However, how do you get we are 75 weeks from the 80 week low? Counting from 8/6/2007, the nominal 4.5 year low (using Airedale's phasing), I count that as of last week we were either 77 weeks along if you don't include the week of 8/6, and 78 if you do. Using your principal of variance, the 80 week low may have bottomed last week at 78 weeks.

From what date are you positioning your low?

Deva
doc

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Posts: 475
Reply with quote  #4 
Relax, thanks for the reply. I'll be happy to let you know when the next projection comes in.

Deva,

While Airedale was originally looking at Aug 6 as the 4.5 yr low, I felt that the price action looking at the top components of the Dow, SPX, and Nasdaq favored Aug 16th as the low and Aire also came to that conclusion for the same reason. Based on that and not including that week (the low came in the middle of the day on Thursday), we just finished 75 wks and now getting close to 76 wks if you go by Thursday. While with variability, we could be forming that low right here, I'm just suggesting that it might be prudent to see positive price action lift us up first before jumping in long in case there is a final sharp drop yet to come. Hope that helps.

Doc
doc

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Registered: 12/01/04
Posts: 475
Reply with quote  #5 

We are now 76 and 1/3 weeks along since the 4.5 year low in Aug 2007 with the 80 week low most likely still dead ahead. That suggests increased volatility and the potential for a big move, first down and then up out of the 80 wk low (unless we've already carved out the 80 wk low, which I don't think so). You'll have to copy and paste the entire link below to your browser if the software is truncating it...(Why does it do that?)

http://tinyurl.com/clcn4s

With the ema compressions on the McClellan data that Fib has nicely pointed out, the Hurst data fits in nicely with the concept of revisiting the Nov lows, testing them, and perhaps breaking them. The potential triggers will most likely be the monthly employment data, more bank/auto news, uncertainty and bickering about the stimulus package, and options expiration. Given that we don't have any crystal balls on the exact timing of this low, caution is advised and it might be prudent to keep the stops honest and positions smaller, unless you want to "go for it".

I wonder if buying VIX bullish call spreads or maybe the 45 straddle might be a way to play this for the more sophisticated trader? Any thoughts?

Doc


fib_1618

Moderator
Registered: 11/29/04
Posts: 3,753
Reply with quote  #6 
Quote:
You'll have to copy and paste the entire link below to your browser if the software is truncating it...(Why does it do that?)

I don't have a clue on that one...probably a link limitation feature inherent with the message board software that I haven't been able to rectify. In the meantime, I've converted the link to a tiny url in additional to your attachment.

Quote:
I wonder if buying VIX bullish call spreads or maybe the 45 straddle might be a way to play this for the more sophisticated trader? Any thoughts?

Although I won't specifically comment on the option trade ideas, I will suggest that keeping an eye on the VIX, with the compliment of an 8 day moving average Bollinger Band, will help in regard to both an entry and exit strategy...moving above the average being bullish (the bears in control), and staying below the average being bearish (the bulls in control). It is also worth noting that even the Bollinger Bands are showing compression in this time period as well.

Thanks for the thread...its been an interesting read.

Fib





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doc

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Registered: 12/01/04
Posts: 475
Reply with quote  #7 
We are now 77 and 2/3 weeks into the Hurst 80wk cycle and still under its influence. As mentioned in the beginning of the thread, I didn't expect it to help too much with daily or even swing trading due to the very high volatility, making even modest stop-losses a recipe for getting chewed up in either direction. For my part, it seemed like the robust rally last week could have been the indication that the 80 wk low was past, so I didn't feel comfortable taking large short positions Monday.

I believe we are still forming the 80wk low and that it will come in the next 1-10 trading days, though I have one model going out into early March. Fib's VIX broke up through the middle BB. We had a small point change yesterday that resolved decidedly down and perhaps not unexpectedly with the full stoch at 70. Also, we have been quite overbought on the open10s. Finally, we have a SOB pattern to work with all over the place and probably breaking the neckline on the DOW today (whispers from last month with MCO breaking the divergent lows).

All in all, trade safe and we might get a better rally if we fall sharply here in price and develop nice divergences, but have to be on the lookout for more bearish technical breakdowns as well.

Doc

doc

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Reply with quote  #8 

We are now 78 weeks along this 80wk cycle from the 4.5 yr low of Aug 2007. Cycles have been lengthening as they usually do in bear markets. I believe we are forming this 80wk low right here right now in the next 1-10 trading days. On the SPX cash, there is a 2.5wk fld projection formed over the last 2 days that targets 776 +/- 10 points.

This could be a volatile sharp V bottom if the heavier weighted stocks in the index make their 80wk lows at the same time, or if it is news driven with an increase in amplitude due to that. It could also be a sloppy more ambiguous consolidation bottom if the heavier weighted stocks in the index make their 80wk lows on different days in a splayed out fashion, similar to the 80 wk low in Jan-Feb 2006.

The bulls will have their best chance in months immediately after this 80wk low.
The 9 yr cycle will be heading down
The 4.5 yr cycle up
The 80wk cycle up
The 40wk cycle up
The 20wk cycle up
The 10, 5, 2.5, 6-7day cycles all up.

Airedale RIP would have loved this...

Doc

doc

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Reply with quote  #9 
Hurst 80wk low update: Today is 79wks from the Aug 07 low and while cycles run longer in bear markets so we are now definitely in the window. The SPX projected to 776 +/- 10 and today we hit 777.03. Now let's see what the market will do from here. I know the Aire would be probing longs right now with stops in place, trying to nail the bottom, but would also say privately that it is always safer to wait for some upcrosses of the 3-3.5 or 6-7 day flds to enter trades as Hurst, the master, would preach....

Trying to catch the bottom is more fun, but you might get stabbed several times (by the falling knife). We also have warning signs from the internals that need to be honored, and a double top chart pattern and the SOB pattern.

Doc

doc

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Posts: 475
Reply with quote  #10 
I've done a refinement of the expected timeframe for the 80wk Hurst low based on the shorter cycles, and in the past, the larger cycles seem to dominate the timing so we have to take this with a grain of salt. That said, the window appears to be from this coming Friday afternoon through next Tuesday afternoon. In other words, 4.5 to 7 trading days from now. That is on the outer edge of the window established on the weekly charts...So there appears to be some time left for more carnage...

Doc
doc

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Reply with quote  #11 

We've now completed 80wks from the Hurst 4.5yr low and this week was in the outer range for 80wk lows based on recent samples of 80wk cycles, but I'm not surprised as cycles do lengthen in bear markets.

Based on shorter cycles, today could have been the 80wk low, though the window is open through early next week. From here, we should get cyclical upward pressure. The big question will be if that will be sufficient to overcome any fundamental effects that may be present in the coming weeks and months.

Now if you want to wait for an upcross of the 2.5wk fld (7 day offset), the following values represent the values which the daily bar's midpoint must exceed for an upcross to occur for the SPX cash.

Tues 766.47
Wed 760.11
Thur 760.09
Fri  766.51


Doc

Do I get extra bonus points for placing the "80wk" label right over the spot where the price low would occur??  Of course, now price will go lower next week, lol.


mojave

TW Member
Registered: 03/05/07
Posts: 26
Reply with quote  #12 
Doc, I appreciate the thread; we certainly appear to be at interesting time/prices conjunctions here - Hurst, Elliott, DeMark, sentiment, etc. Should be another interesting week.

I attempted to get thru Hurst's "Profit magic..." book a while back, but I'll admit it was anything but clear to me. Fortunately I've got some written notes from Airdale's old posts  - so, while I'm not clever enough to project forward, I at least understand what you've shared here. 

 
imhotep

TW Member
Registered: 03/16/07
Posts: 10
Reply with quote  #13 
Doc, first of all, great thread.  Thank you for posting a thread on the cycles.
I followed Airedales posts as much as I could, but his became somewhat confusing for me.  You are laying this out, so I can visually grasp, that what you are portending.

Whether you are nailing the cycle low at the exact low point, doesn't really matter.  As you stated, in bear markets they tend to run a little longer.

My question, .....would it be safe to say, if one were to take the 50% area of each of those cycles, could one somewhat extrapolate the cycle high, for each of those periods?  I think the answer would be yes, but please correct me, and explain why in further detail.

My next question would be,.....based on a 4 - 4.5 year business cycle, would it be safe to say, since we are only 1/3 of our way into this stock market final low, we still have 2/3 of the larger cycle left to complete?  Which, under my thought process, means we have 120 - 160 weeks left till the "final low".

I hate to guess.  I'm looking for people with greater knowledge to share that which they are knowledgeable, with those of us, that are either less knowledgeable, or a wee bit slower to the draw. 

Thanks for you help in this matter!
doc

TW Patron++
Registered: 12/01/04
Posts: 475
Reply with quote  #14 
Thanks for the kind words but I have nowhere near the experience nor the expertise that Airedale had. I miss his wisdom and he was always willing to explain things when asked.

Extrapolating cycle highs is more complex and less predictable than cycle lows which tend to converge and "nest" together. So along with the 80wk low, you also have the 40wk, 20wk, 10wk, 5wk, 2.5wk, 6-7day, 3-3.5day and so on cycles bottoming at the same time. This makes for sharper bottoms in general. Tops are more rounded as each or these cycles peak at different times. Also, each cycle will generally peak in a left or right translated fashion. In bull markets, the trend is up and cycles are right translated meaning the peak comes in the second half of the cycle. In bear markets, the reverse.

This 4.5 year cycle began aug 2007 based on Airedale's phasing which with all the discussions and arguments presented for and against, still makes the most sense to me. Each 4.5 year cycle has 3 80wk cycles in it. So there are two more before this 4.5yr cycle bottoms. That will be in about 3 years. This 80wk cycle was very left translated. The current economic situation suggests that the next one will also be left translated, meaning the peak should be in the first 40wks or 9 months of the cycle.

Not very bullish for the next 3 years. On the other hand, the rapidity of this decline demonstrates that it was due to flagrant fundamental conditions that came to light causing what Hurst might call a pseudotrend. Once the fundamental conditions burn themselves out, the underlying trend can resume, sometimes with a quick snapback.  Will see what happens moving forward.

In the meantime, I see this 80wk low coming early this week. It could have been at the close Monday, but it could easily be Tuesday or Wednesday as well. the violent down move today leaves the 2.5wk fld quite a ways away, making an early entry that much more risky. Best to play it safe and let the market tell you when it is ready to turn, if it is at all.

Doc
imhotep

TW Member
Registered: 03/16/07
Posts: 10
Reply with quote  #15 
Thanks for the great explanation Doc, very much appreciated!!
I have definitely been awestruck by the rate of this decline.  I keep
refering back to the tech bubble implosion, and trying to detrmine "where we are", in comparison.  Your explanation does bring a lot of light on this subject.  I thank you again for your time, and willingness to teach! 
doc

TW Patron++
Registered: 12/01/04
Posts: 475
Reply with quote  #16 
I believe that the Hurst 80wk cycle may have bottomed in the early afterhours session. Let's see. We still have the employment report on Friday. I don't see how that could be good news.

Doc
doc

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Registered: 12/01/04
Posts: 475
Reply with quote  #17 
Well we are now 81wks from the 4.5yr low. Making a minor adjustment to the shorter cycles in marking the last 20wk low late in the day Oct 10th instead of at the open, today was the outer window for the 80wk low instead of late Tuesday. I still think the 80wk low is upon us. These are the benchmark FLD datapoints to cross next wk for the 2.5wk cycle using a 7 day offset:

Mon: 765.58 (not likely to get a midbar cross on Monday!)
Tues: 742.90
Wed:  714.64
Thurs: 701.98
Fri:     711.36

With a decent rally, we could get an upcross as early as Wed or Thurs.
I should also point out that with the VIX and ATR still so high, it is possible that cycles will be overcome by the daily news coming out. On the other hand, several measures of diversion from the mean are stretched awfully far. On the other hand, the options data still doesn't reflect much fear, at least the simple stuff I have access to. Time will tell.

Doc


doc

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Reply with quote  #18 
Here is a long term chart with the 4.5 year lows in black and the 80wk lows in dashed purple from 1982. This was Airedale's phasing and work (the 80wk lows pre 1994 I filled in visually, but the 4.5 yr lows and subsequent 80wk lows are all his). 

In this small way, we can keep his memory going as we enter the month that he suddenly and unexpectedly past away last year.

I used a linear chart on the NYA index and note that Friday's bounce came as the index touched a 27 year old trendline going back to the 1982 lows with now 5 valid touchpoints.

Doc

doc

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Reply with quote  #19 

Here it is with the Fib retracement off the same 1982 lows.

Doc


doc

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Reply with quote  #20 
Well Tuesday was what the first day off an 80wk low should look like. The price explosion was strong enough that we should get a 2.5wk fld up cross tomorrow barring any collapse that targets the 750-770 range on the SPX cash. We need some follow through now. Looks like that 27 year trendline on the NYA might have been just what the patient on life support needed.

Doc
stickan

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Registered: 07/17/05
Posts: 50
Reply with quote  #21 
There are actually some other , long term, fib and geometrically interesting things on that chart.
1 The red pitchfork (Andrews Median lines) hits the ATH with the upper parallel median line and the low with its lower 75% warning line
2. Using the same pivots and Andrews Schiffs Median Lines (or "1" with 50% offset), light green,  we find that Doc's trendline i s exactly parallell with those median lines! Not only that - the 25%-33%-66% -75% outer warning lines hits top D and bottom E
3. 61,8% decline of the 1974-2007 bullmarket hits bottom E almost exactly.
4. A projection of the 1987 decline (in percent), from the 2007 top multiplied by fib 1,786 also hits the bottom.

doc

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Reply with quote  #22 
Nice chart Stig!

Is your analysis that this is a good point for at least an IT bottom for now or do you see us going for lower lines and .707 or .75 retraces?

Today we had an upcross of the SPX 2.5wk fld which projects to the 765 area +/- 10 points. The higher order FLDs are in a cascade position which could give higher targets if this market is ready to move up. Tomorrow is the 3-3.5day low so I wouldn't be surprised by weakness.

I'm still very cautious in this market, as I'm not convinced how much influence Hurst cycles have right now over the noise of strong market moving developments. I'd like to see better developments in the bond CEF, high yield bonds and the counterparty risk arenas as well as the options data. Even the open 10s are getting low. Time to be alert.

Doc
doc

TW Patron++
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Reply with quote  #23 
Well, can't argue with the price action so far for an 80wk low. We have a 6-7day low due sometime Tues-Wed so consolidating or dropping to a retracement would be healthy. A scary 2 day drop into the 6-7day low could even get some of the fear indicators more in line with a bottom. We'll see.

Doc
doc

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Reply with quote  #24 
The market action is consistent with Friday March 6th as the 80wk low. The 3-3.5 day low was the early am dip March 12th. If you blinked, you missed it. The 6-7 day low came in late Monday and into early am Tuesday March 17th. I thought it would come later Tues or Wed and I was wrong. Shortening of cycles usually occurs in bullish environments. The 2.5 wk fld target of 765 SPX cash was met and OVERshot in the first 6 days! Very bullish action.

Price action has now generated an upcross of the 5wk fld that targets around the Jan-Feb double top/SOB area of 870-875.

The 2.5wk cycle low is due 12-14 days from the March 6th bottom and with the cycles shortening, perhaps 12-13 days, which would be Tues-Wed March 24-25. This could come at higher or lower levels from todays close.

Doc
hiker

TW Member
Registered: 12/01/04
Posts: 9,229
Reply with quote  #25 
hi Doc,

shown below is a March 20 long-term daily chart with index prices, copper futures and the cumulative NYSE advance-decline line ...

this chart is helpful to me for assessing what price levels define horizontal breakouts going forward:

here is the March 6th version of the same chart -

http://forums.technicalwatch.com/tool/post/fib_1618/vpost?id=3349840


__________________
Ralph Acampora CMT, April 15 a.m. 2014:

1. At best, the market is now in a wide trading range; at worst, it is creating an intermediate term market top froth with failed rallies.

2.  Rally(s) from current levels will, at some point, encounter serious overhead supply.
That will be the moment of truth.

3.  April 14th witnessed a brisk over-sold rally. Further broad based upside follow through is needed to correct the recent technical damage.
doc

TW Patron++
Registered: 12/01/04
Posts: 475
Reply with quote  #26 
Hiker,

Thanks for a great longterm chart. Copper seems to have signaled ahead but now is at resistance on your chart.

Do you derive anything from the chart beyond an observation when and if it occurs, that price has moved above or below important horizontal S/R lines?
Thanks.

Doc
hiker

TW Member
Registered: 12/01/04
Posts: 9,229
Reply with quote  #27 
hi Doc,

my personal use of such horizontal price levels is exemplified here -

http://www.websitetoolbox.com/mb/fib_1618?forum=30657

in numerous chart threads.

yes, I keep it simple what a move or stall/reversal at a horizontal R or S means to my personal trading.

simple is better in my book.  I would rather trade between horizontal support and resistance price levels, than trade most other trade strategies

...it works for me.  a breakout of price and breadth, or breakdown,
is easily distinguished from a fakeout.

 Of course, breadth and price both require chart analysis to make such distinctions in a timely manner.
 - hiker, Steve


__________________
Ralph Acampora CMT, April 15 a.m. 2014:

1. At best, the market is now in a wide trading range; at worst, it is creating an intermediate term market top froth with failed rallies.

2.  Rally(s) from current levels will, at some point, encounter serious overhead supply.
That will be the moment of truth.

3.  April 14th witnessed a brisk over-sold rally. Further broad based upside follow through is needed to correct the recent technical damage.
doc

TW Patron++
Registered: 12/01/04
Posts: 475
Reply with quote  #28 
Thanks Steve, You do an excellent job with the horizontal S/R lines and many times prices move to those lines and stop for a while, testing, and sometimes reversing.

Hurst 2.5 wk low: Today completed 12 days off the March 6th 80wk low. This cycle tends to run 12-14 days, though lately closer to 13-14 days. Given the recent bullish shift, possibly closer to 12-13 days. I think the low will probably come tomorrow. Mondays move doesn't change the cycle length. It was simply an "unforeseen" fundamental event that increased the amplitude.

5wk FLD target to 870-875 area still in play.

If I keep the 10wk cycle at 10wks exactly, today we generated a cross of the 10wk fld that target 950 area. If I use a 26 TD offset, there is no cross yet, and I think a 26 day offset is more proper, given the recent length of cycles. Stay tuned.

Doc
doc

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Reply with quote  #29 
First off, we did generate and upcross on the 10wk FLD on March 25 and confirmed on the 26th targeting 950 +/- 28 points on the SPX cash. The 5wk FLD target of 862 +/- 20 points is due in the next 9TD's and so far the outer range has been undershot by 9 points.

Now the rally off this 80wk low presented us with a bit of a problem. It was so strong and wicked, that the 2.5wk low was virtually inconspicuous. I have to say that it probably came Wed afternoon before the capapult rally into the close. Friday the 20th would be better for the bull case, but awfully short at being only 10TD from the low.

Sooooo.... the bad news is that today we had the 3-3.5 day low and we noticably took out the 2.5wk low. We'd hafta call it a cycle straddle for the bullish case to be good. Now that could be the case, as there was news out on the auto industry. Is so, we need to rebound up starting tomorrow.

The good news is:
1. We have a right translated first 2.5wk cycle off the 80wk.
2. We have a right translated first 5wk cycle off the 80wk.
3. Today we met and exceeded the 6-7TD FLD downside targets but did NOT break the 2.5 wk FLDs on any of the indicies including spx, indu, oex, nasdaq, ndx, rut, mid, vle using 7day offset which I think is proper. As long as the futures remain up and we trade higher tomorrow, we won't break below tomorrow either.

It would be nice to see the 766.20 low hold, esp if that gap gets filled and if really, it would be better not to break today's low. With the shorter cycles, the next 6-7d low should be Thurs-Fri. I'd like to see that higher than today's low. Of course, there is major news out both Thurs and Friday so stay tuned.

Doc
doc

TW Patron++
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Reply with quote  #30 
Well the 3-3.5 day cycle straddle low held on Wed and we were off to the races! Now we have a right translated 6-7TD cycle as well. Bullish.

The 6-7 day low is due Thurs-Fri and I didn't see anything resembling a low today. Will see tomorrow.

The 5 wk FLD target of 870 area still in play. If all cycles remain right translated, that should come early-mid next week. The 5wk low is due April 13th.

Doc
doc

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Reply with quote  #31 
Well the target at 870 has been met and we are 7 wks along from the 3/6/09 bottom. The 10 wk low is about 3 weeks away. After 7 weeks up, 3 wks down to the 10 wk low would not be unexpected. On the other hand, we could keep on rising another week or two and have a minor price low for the 10wk low. We do have overhead resistance at 875 level on the SPX and ewave patterns suggesting a rest. Also today, NYMO broke its uptrend line from the lows.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25228246941&a=166419825&listNum=7



If we generate any Hurst downside targets, I'll post them. For now, I'm short from 868 level with a stop above 880 on a closing basis.

Doc

doc

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Reply with quote  #32 
Well we are 9 weeks along this 1st 10wk cycle with the Hurst 10 wk low due late this week to early next week. No downside targets yet except the NDX to roughly 1350-75 depending on the offset used.

Doc
doc

TW Patron++
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Reply with quote  #33 
10 wk Hurst cycle low now exerting full force effects. NDX target met.
New targets now coming on line.

SPX 2.5wk fld target 863 +/- 6.7 points.
NDX 5wk fld target 1295 +/- 14.1 points.
NYA 2.5wk fld target 5523 +/- 48 points.

If tomorrow is a predominantly a down day, RUT will generate a 5wk fld target down to 435 area.

Doc
doc

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Reply with quote  #34 
Well the 10wk low came in on Friday IMHO, exactly 10wks from the March 6 lows. The downside targets above were all undershot. That is bullish.

We have an outstanding 20wk fld upside target of roughly 1020 +/- 35 points on the SPX cash. I remain bullish unless the 10wk low is taken out. Then is the NYMO and NAMO divergent lows are taken out, even more bearish.

Doc
doc

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Reply with quote  #35 
The 950 target I posted on 3/25/09 for SPX has now been met.
The 1020 target off the 20wk fld is still in play at this time.

The first 2.5wk cycle low since the 10 wk low came in on June 3rd as expected. Now we are 7 days along this next 2.5wk cycle and the 5 wk low should come in this Friday at quad witching (6/19) or the Monday after. No downside targets yet and with the 2wk consolidation, any downside target will be mild.

Now if the 2.5wk low gets taken out (923.85 on SPX cash or 5983.06 on NYSE) then that's bearish. Watch out if the 10wk lows go out (878.94 on SPX).

Current state of Hurst cycles by my phasing:

9 yr   Down
4.5yr  Up
80wk  Up
40wk  Up
20wk  Down
10wk  Up
5wk    Down
2.5wk  Down
6-7day Up

Doc
doc

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Reply with quote  #36 
There are some potential crosses and the 5 wk flds for various indexes that target the 10wk Hurst lows from around May 15. Being so close to the 5 wk low due in the next 1-3 days, there may not be enough time to achieve those targets. So either the market drops briskly here into OPEX quad witching or we undershoot those targets with a snapback rally off the 5 wk low. Given the current configuration of the internals, and the fact that this was a left translated 2.5 wk cycle, the upside off this last 5wk cycle before the 20wk low could be the expected snapback to zero for the various mco's. This raises serious concern about the market reaching the 20wk target of 1020.

Doc
doc

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Reply with quote  #37 
Well with quad witching OPEX, the 5 wk Hurst low decided to come in a tad bit late-- Monday instead of Friday. There could be some overthrow into Tues am, but the markets better rally from there, or else something else is going on that could turn very ugly. As it is, this 5 wk low dropped down fairly close to the mid May Hurst 10wk low on most of the non-tech largecap indexes.

I think the next technical expectation is for a rally off the 5 wk lows as the various mco snapback to or towards the zero line and perhaps try to engage positive territory. With the 20wk low now 5 wks away, the current weakness might suggest only 1-2wks of positive influence before we have fairly high negative cycle effects into the 20wk low due around July 24th.

Doc
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Reply with quote  #38 
With the overthrow into Tuesday AM, the Hurst 5wk low is now in with an SPX low of 888.86.

Upside target SPX: We got an upside target for SPX cash today off the 6-7 day fld targeting 928 +/- 4 points. Wouldn't be surprised if that is met next week after the 3-3.5day low tomorrow.

If tomorrow doesn't trade lower than -18 points or so, we will also have an upcross of the 2.5wk fld which will give an upside target to the 732ish area. (edit: should read 932ish area)
 
We also have to be prepared to take profits when getting close to these targets (I did today), as at some point, I expect to fail, falling short of targets, and start descending into the 20 wk lows.

We still have an upside target of 1030 area outstanding that I would be surprised to meet, but who knows. I'm looking for an excuse to start building shorts again.

Echo/Doc
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Reply with quote  #39 

".....we will also have an upcross of the 2.5wk fld which will give an upside target to the 732ish area. "



That's  a nice Freudian slip doc .....thanks for the update.

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doc

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Reply with quote  #40 
RF, nice catch. should have been 932, but with Fridays action being mildly down to neutral, the 2.5wk fld cross is now confirmed and targeting the 936-939 area depending on the offset used. That could be met very early next week if the market decides to go on a tear (less likely), or more likely near the end of next week or early the week, after as the 6-7 day low which I have targeted for Wed-Thurs of next week.

With 21 or so trading days left to the Hurst 20wk low, I would guess that the mco's,  after having produced a textured complex pattern under the zero line, will now have a simple untextured pattern above the zero line to relieve the short term oversold situation before descending into the 20wk lows.

If the market does continue to show strength, then we will know based on:

1. New breadth highs confirming new price highs
2. Complex mco pattern above the zero line
3. My weekly DJW chart confirms by transforming into a bullish stance.

Having a crystal ball would allow one a better entry but I don't have one. Short of that, better not to lead off with any large positions and instead to wait for clarifying data.

Doc

doc

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Reply with quote  #41 
Well SPX made it up to my original target of 932 and the 6-7day low came in on Thursday with a vengence. I doubt we will bounce back to the 936-39 area and in fact, I think we will most certainly generate a down cross of the 2.5wk fld targeting the 877 (edit typo from 777, sorry) area based on a crude guess of the market range tomorrow. A confirmed target to follow.

Doc
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Reply with quote  #42 
Well with today's price action mostly negative, the SPX cash is targeting 872 +/- 6 points for the 2.5wk low, most likely due this Thursday to Friday.

Doc
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Reply with quote  #43 
Hurst 2.5wk low: I think it came in at 12:34:56 7/8/9 mountain time on Wed.
SPX cash target of 872 met perfectly and a couple of points overshot. I forgot that the last 2.5wk low came in 1.5 days late, so this one coming in early would even that out.

The 20wk low is due Friday July 24th. We will get a 20wk fld cross here in the next few days. Using a 48day offset, we crossed today, targeting 803 area, but I am thinking a 50day offset would be better, so no cross yet in my book.

Doc
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