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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
Well, the 10th day has come and gone, and according to Stock Charts, we reached 61% which is just under the 61.5% guideline for a confirmed thrust. So does being close have any forecasting merit?

To answer this, I checked with fellow TW member Darris McCollum who keeps this same data using the advance/decline data direct from the NYSE, and he shared that "the full 10 day time frame gave the best low to high reading, but the 1st 8 days qualified as well." He went on to say that "Not that is matters, but the 10 day on the SPX advancing went from like 36% to 69% in 10 days"!

Here is a copy of his spreadsheet showing the 8 and 10 day periods where both moved from just above 39% to over 63%! Based on this, and Stock Charts being "that close", we'll give the benefit of the doubt to the market and state that a we have a confirmed bull market breadth thrust which would suggest higher equity prices for the next couple of months at a bare minimum.

Fib

Tuesday, July 22, 20141983.5320869440.688450.5044
Wednesday, July 23, 20141987.01175612760.579160.5043
Thursday, July 24, 20141987.98141815990.470.5206
Friday, July 25, 20141978.34101120090.334770.4991
Monday, July 28, 20141978.91132217090.436160.4784
Tuesday, July 29, 20141969.95119018260.394560.4834
Wednesday, July 30, 20141970.07118118620.38810.4668
Thursday, July 31, 20141930.6727528420.088230.4572
Friday, August 01, 20141925.15113919280.371370.4120
Monday, August 04, 20141938.99188411730.616290.4367
Tuesday, August 05, 20141920.2186121970.281560.3960
Wednesday,August 06, 20141920.24181212300.595660.3977
Thursday, August 07, 20141909.57141516550.460910.3968
Friday, August 08, 20141931.5923387450.758350.4391
Monday, August 11, 20141936.9222478040.736480.4692
Tuesday, August 12, 20141933.75124617850.411090.4708
Wednesday,August 13, 20141946.7223107620.751950.5072
Thursday, August 14, 20141955.1820609740.678970.5663
Friday, August 15, 20141955.06147115380.488870.5780
Monday, August 18, 20141971.7424346440.790770.5955
Tuesday, August 19, 20141981.60195610800.644270.6317
Wednesday,August 20, 20141986.51154014550.514190.6236
Thursday, August 21, 20141992.37183012040.603160.6378

[zweig082114]

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

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doc

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Reply with quote  #2 
Thanks for the update Fib. Just to clarify for the readers, the main difference between Darris's findings and Stockcharts is not discrepancies in the breadth data but the formula used to get the results. 

The SC chart you have posted is the 10 ma of ADV/Total where Total includes ADV + DEC + UNCH.
Darris's version is more in line with what I have seen as Zweig's original formula which was the 10 ma of ADV/ADV + DEC where the unchanged issues are not included in the denominator, thus making the denominator smaller and the fraction of the ADV therefore a bit higher each day. On the other hand, the SC chart where the denominator includes the unchanged issues, makes the fraction of ADV a bit smaller due to the larger denominator. Hope that is clear.

Either way we have had a SLM as we say, or  a "straight line move" off the lows.

I'm betting that a print of 2000 SPX or 200 SPY will generate at least a temporary reaction down, but who knows, maybe not...

Doc
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
Quote:
The SC chart you have posted is the 10 ma of ADV/Total where Total includes ADV + DEC + UNCH. Darris's version is more in line with what I have seen as Zweig's original formula which was the 10 ma of ADV/ADV + DEC where the unchanged issues are not included in the denominator, thus making the denominator smaller and the fraction of the ADV therefore a bit higher each day. On the other hand, the SC chart where the denominator includes the unchanged issues, makes the fraction of ADV a bit smaller due to the larger denominator. Hope that is clear.

Very clear.

Thank you for the clarification Doc...in my rushed effort in making this post, I should have touched upon this important difference.

Fib

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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mojave

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Reply with quote  #4 
FWIW, yesterday's SC data showed both 10sma & 10ema tagging 40.0 I believe.  Not quite 'below' 40, and possibly other data is different, but I thought it may be of interest.


Thrust.png

But, the VOLUME chart didn't come quite as close:

Thrust_V.png 

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #5 
Yep...keeping an eye on it here...thanks for the heads up!

Fib

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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