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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
The Zweig breadth thrust indicator is computed by calculating the number of advancing issues on an exchange such as the NYSE divided by the total number of issues (advancing + declining) on it, and generating a 10-day exponential moving average of this percentage. The indicator signals the start of a potential new bull market when it moves from a level of below 40% (indicating an oversold market) to above 61.5% within any 10 trading day period, a sentiment shift that occurs only rarely.

Looks like we'll get our trigger today...day 10 would be on Tuesday, September 8th.

Though I doubt we'll reach 61.5% this time around, the chart below does show that when we get below 35%, it does produce critical price lows in the longer term structural price pattern.

Fib

[zweig082515] 




 

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #2 

thanks, Dave!  

excellent timing for this information.
 



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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
As of Friday, Day 4 - EMA at 52%.

For those interested, the SMA is at 43%

Fib

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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PrincelyM

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Reply with quote  #4 
Hey Dave, do you have a list of previous instances where this setup triggered? Just curious....After March 2009 will do. I remember seeing you post this data earlier but cannot find it now.

Thanks!
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #5 
Predictably, the last EMA thrust confirmation came at the lows of 2009.

Current reading is at 48% with 3 trading days to go.

As I mentioned at that start, I doubt that we'll get a confirmation this time around...the SMA may be another story.

Fib

[zweig090215]

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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PrincelyM

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Reply with quote  #6 
Interesting..the guy at this link says it occurred in Mar 2010 and Jul 2010 

http://stockcharts.com/public/1130414/chartbook/230315073

I am wondering if its because he did not use the 10 day criteria...weird.
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #7 
Here's the close up of 2010 of the EMA...March never had a trigger, July was 15 days.

Fib


[zweig2010]

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #8 
FYI - in the article shown at the Link, Tom McClellan is not including the # of unchanged issues in the divisor ... I  believe unchanged issues are included when using $NYTOT as the divisor

3053 = the sum of the NYSE Adv + Dec issues today

3202 = $NYTOT reported at today's close by StockCharts.com

https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/supposed_breadth_thrust_signal_actually_just_missed/



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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #9 
Quote:
FYI - in the article shown at the Link, Tom McClellan is not including the # of unchanged issues in the divisor ... I  believe unchanged issues are included when using $NYTOT as the divisor

Thanks for pointing this out Steve...yes, this is one of the problems with the Stock Charts data as to its "purity" in this area.

Given that Friday was day 9 of the 10 day count down, and the EMA is at 49%, we'll lay this latest trigger event to rest as having no chance of a breadth thrust confirmation...as was expected.

Fib

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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