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hiker

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Reply with quote  #1 

"Footquarters" has two sites where he posts:

it appears he is in the SPX bear camp at the moment



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #2 

Foot's chart and comment about the unwinding of the Yen carry trade -

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=24442018

his forecast for SPX -

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=24442185

AAPL chart -

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=24438564


 

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #3 
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=24675183
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hiker

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Reply with quote  #4 

1. Yen trend vs. SPX update by "Footq.."

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25141787


2.  SPX 60 min -

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25141797


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #5 
his post about SPX monthly -

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25254053


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #6 
NDX idea -

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25325750

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #7 
 Foot's Yen chart -

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=26016770


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #8 
early Friday a.m., Oct 24, 2008 -

article containing some info. about the yen achieving a new high vs. the dollar -

(full article from Bloomberg news is shown below the relevant excerpt)

article excerpt -

Carry Trade

The yen climbed to the highest since August 1995 against the dollar as the risk of a global recession prompted investors to slash carry trades, in which they fund purchases of higher- yielding assets with Japanese currency. The yen gained 1.8 percent to 95.51 against the dollar at 12:35 p.m. today, set for its highest level since August 1995. Against the euro, it rose 3.3 percent to 121.77.

--------

full article -


Asian Stocks, U.S. Futures Slump on Profit Declines; Yen Surges                

By Kyung Bok Cho and Satoshi Kawano

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks tumbled and U.S. futures fell after Sony Corp. slashed its earnings forecast and South Korea's economic growth weakened, deepening concern a global slowdown is hurting profits. The yen and Treasuries climbed.

Sony plunged 13 percent to the lowest level since 1995 as it cut profit expectations for the second time since July, while Toyota Motor Corp. lost 5 percent after reporting a drop in quarterly sales for the first time in seven years. Japanese exporters extended losses after the yen jumped to a 13-year high, cutting the value of overseas sales. Samsung Electronics Co. lost 5.8 percent in Seoul on a decline in net income and concern that the nation is heading for a recession.

``Slowing U.S. and European growth have sent shockwaves through the economies of the developing world,'' said Hiroshi Fujimoto, a fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management Co. in Tokyo, which manages the equivalent of $5.7 billion. ``Exporters are likely to see their sales drop off a cliff.''

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slumped 4.7 percent to 81.24 as of 2:06 p.m. in Tokyo, set for its seventh weekly decline in the past eight weeks. More than 900 stocks fell on the 990-member index and six of the 10 industry groups lost 4 percent or more.

Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures retreated 2.2 percent. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 6.9 percent to 7,881.21, falling past 8,000 for the first time since May 2003. South Korea's Kospi index tumbled 8.3 percent, set for its worst week since 1997. Lotte Shopping Co. paced declines after profit missed estimates. HSBC Holdings Inc. tumbled, driving Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lower, after Morgan Stanley cut the bank's stock target 25 percent.

Treasuries rose, sending 10-year notes to their biggest weekly gain in a decade, as spreading financial turmoil wiped out more than $10 trillion of global stock-market value this month. India's rupee fell through 50 against the dollar to a record low.

Carry Trade

The yen climbed to the highest since August 1995 against the dollar as the risk of a global recession prompted investors to slash carry trades, in which they fund purchases of higher- yielding assets with Japanese currency. The yen gained 1.8 percent to 95.51 against the dollar at 12:35 p.m. today, set for its highest level since August 1995. Against the euro, it rose 3.3 percent to 121.77.

Sony, the world's second-largest maker of consumer electronics, slid 13 percent to 1,999 yen in Tokyo. Net income will drop 59 percent from a year earlier in the 12 months to March 31, Sony said yesterday, citing the stronger yen and worsening economic outlook.

Panasonic Corp., the world's biggest consumer-electronics maker, fell 9.3 percent to 1,388 yen in Tokyo. Sharp Corp., Japan's largest maker of mobile phones and liquid-crystal displays, slid 10 percent to 658 yen, the lowest level since April 1982.

Toyota Sales

``Sony's announcement casts a shadow on all electronics shares,'' Soichiro Monji, chief strategist at Tokyo-based Daiwa SB Investments Ltd., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Toyota Motor Corp., the world's second-largest automaker, fell 5 percent to 3,250 yen. The company said quarterly sales dropped 4.3 percent, the first decline in seven years, as the financial crisis crippled worldwide auto demand.

Korea Slowdown

Samsung, Asia's biggest maker of chips, flat screens and mobile phones, dropped 5.8 percent to 445,000 won in Seoul, the lowest since January 2005. Third-quarter net income fell 44 percent, as oversupply drove down prices of semiconductors and displays.

Lotte, South Korea's biggest department-store operator, lost 9.1 percent to 139,500 won, capping an eight-day, 37 percent plunge. The shares trade at almost a third of the price they were sold in the company's 2006 initial public offering. Lotte said yesterday its quarterly profit declined 19 percent amid slowing sales.

South Korea's economy grew 0.6 percent in the last quarter from the previous three months, the weakest pace in four years, the central bank said today. The data sparked concern a recession is looming in Asia's fourth-largest economy as consumers rein in spending and the global slowdown damps export demand.

Stock Valuations

MSCI's Asian index is set to drop 6.9 percent this week and has plunged 48 percent this year, its worst annual performance since the measure was created in 1987. Stocks tumbled after financial firms' mortgage-related losses swelled, worsening a global credit crisis that eventually toppled banks including Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Shares on the Asian measure are now worth 1.1 times book value, cheaper than those in the U.S. and Europe. The S&P and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index trade at 1.8 times book value. Asia's stocks traded as high as 2.6 times book in May 2007, when U.S. stocks were at 2.9 times and Europe was at 2.6 times.

HSBC, the world's second-biggest bank by value, tumbled 7.3 percent to HK$93.30 after Morgan Stanley cut its share-price target to HK$75. The London-based bank may halve its dividend in 2009, while an appreciation in the dollar could cut earnings by about 15 percent, Morgan Stanley analysts said.

A decline in shipping rates sent China Cosco Holdings Co., the world's biggest operator of dry-bulk ships, down 8.8 percent to HK$3.64. STX Pan Ocean Co., South Korea's biggest, fell 8.2 percent to 79 cents in Singapore.

Baltic Dry

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity-shipping rates, declined 5.9 percent yesterday in London, the lowest since Sept. 11, 2002. The gauge has plunged 62 percent since Oct. 3, when it last rose. Goldman, Sachs & Co. slashed its price estimate for China Cosco by 73 percent to HK$4.30, in a report.

To contact the reporter for this story: Kyung Bok Cho in Seoul at kcho7@bloomberg.net; Satoshi Kawano in Tokyo at Skawano1@bloomberg.net

                        Last Updated: October 24, 2008 01:09 EDT

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #9 
Oct 24, premarket session -

SPY low of day so far is 83.25 vs. 52wk low of 83.58...now trading 83.85.

yes, futures are limit down.



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #10 
Oct 31

Yen is testing the support trendline from above, as drawn by "Footquarters" -

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=25141787

his chart of the SPX monthly remains on a "hold-short" signal (see the stoch RSI)

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=25254053

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #11 
article about the reverse carry trade

http://seekingalpha.com/article/103462-reverse-carry-trade-borrowing-proves-deadly?source=yahoo\

article excerpt -

From where I am sitting, a lot of the recent turmoil in emerging markets is a direct result of the reverse currency trade -- borrowing at low rates in foreign currency in order to invest at home. Argentina, Brazil and half of Asia blew up less than 10 years ago for just these reasons.

When will they learn? Do people have that short a memory.




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