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mss

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Posts: 293
Reply with quote  #1 
Who knows how high this thing will go, PnF points to 66+/-, my thoughts come out around 72+/-. TWT, and of course it can fall out of bed.



mss
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PIK

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Reply with quote  #2 

Hi MSS, nice work.  Some items to consider moving forward from here in the energy sector:

1)  The XLE McSum is currently testing resistance from its Dec. peak and is struggling at the moment.  Cumulative A/D line for XLE continues to look healthy for the longer term (no charts shown, information provided by http://www.sentimentrader.com/).

 

2) Something I learned from Fib several years ago was to keep an eye on the Gold/Oil relationship where Gold leads the price of Oil by 11-12 months.  The McClellans from what I understand originally discovered this relationship and continue to track it today.  I have attached a chart of where we may be currently with the price structure of Oil compared to past movements of Gold. 

 

 

Right now, I see more risk than potential reward on the long side in this area as opposed to several months ago when Oil was hitting support.  As the Gold/Oil relationship continues, we could see a correction soon, which would affect the energy stocks.  Its also interesting to see that may be later this year could be a time when Oil really takes off and hits $100/barrel.  Who knows, interesting none the less.

 

Just food for thought.

 

Regards.

 

PIK 

 

 

 

 

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mss

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Reply with quote  #3 
Hi PIK,
Thanks for reminding me of that relationship. At the present time we might consider that the relationship has changed some, due to the following: Value of dollar to gold, Price of coal and other energy sources, etc.
THE FIRST SET OF CHARTS HAD AN ERROR -
The CORRECTED charts below do indicate a current rollover may be in the works.





mss
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mss

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Reply with quote  #4 
Updated charts and corrected posted above.
mss
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trinharder

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Reply with quote  #5 
From Burge's page.  http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID445101

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