Registered: 1101777014 Posts: 4,679
Reply with quote #1
This would suggest that the August 9th crash lows are probably going to hold for a couple more weeks before we actually see a retest of these same lows beginning sometime after quadruple witching on September 16th.
Although this may turn out to be the correct forecast, Friday's action does allow for an acceleration to this same time line as both the OEX and Dow breadth McClellan Oscillators settled below their important mid August lows on Friday. Looking at the charts for this week, the composite NYSE advance/decline line met our short term objective of testing its longer term rising bottoms line, but at the same time, the common only NYSE advance/decline line moved to just below its August 19th lows after Friday's sell off. This would indicate that the general market climate remains heavy and in need of some additional time before we're likely to construct a tradable low. Elsewhere, both the NYSE preferred and bond CEF advance/decline lines continued to move to all time high levels during the week, while the NYSE REIT advance/decline line looks as though its completed a simple snapback to its previous accelerated rising trendline. This would now suggest that a move back to longer term rising bottom line seen on the REIT chart can be anticipated before we're likely to see tradable low point with this basket of stocks. The precious metals and XAU advance/decline lines continue to struggle higher in all of this, so we can expect further firmness with this sector over the near term, but at the same time, we might be close to some sort of pause in this same direction given the lack of viscosity in being able to move forward. No real analytical changes are noted to last weeks forecasts with the international's...the current DAX data remaining the weakest cog in this machinery. US Equity Markets : US Interest Rates : US Real Estate : Precious Metals: Australia: England: Germany: __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977