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fib_1618

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US Equity Markets:

After a brief post holiday respite, the NYSE composite A/D line finished at new all time highs at the end of the week. Meanwhile, the SPX price pattern continued within the confines of a symmetrical triangle and closed at the upper end of this pattern. Until the NYUD line is able to break above its own triangle configuration (see cumulative charts), and with it above its 200 day EMA, it's likely that we'll see another pullback in the SPX next week in an attempt to regroup before making another push to follow the lead of the advance/decline line.



The NYSE common only A/D line continued to move sideways this past week, but it's vigor remains muted compared with the NYSE composite A/D line. Until we see better participation with the NYSE common stocks, it's unlikely that we're going to breakout from the current indecision price pattern in the DJIA outlined in orange.



New all time highs continue with the NYSE preferred only A/D line. The ongoing leadership in this group of stocks promises a pattern of higher highs in the NYSE composite A/D line for the unforeseen future.



US Interest Rates:

Although the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line continued to make all time highs this past week, the bigger news is that the 10 year yield was able to break above its declining tops line that has been controlling the pattern since the early April period. Given that the April period was also the time in which money started coming out of the stock market, this pattern breakout might be a tip off that the trend of money allocation might be ready to move back into equities.
 



US Real Estate:

Not a lot of changes in the NYSE REIT A/D Line and REIT patterns this past week with continuing backing and filling likely in an effort to provide better sync between price and breadth.



Precious Metals:

With spot gold finding technical resistance at its all time highs, the Precious Metals A/D and XAU A/D lines also took the occasion to take a pause this past week with the XAU A/D line fulfilling a simple technical snapback to its breakout line. With underlying fundamentals remaining friendly for the bulls, and the continued bullish behavior in the junior precious metals stocks (see CDNX price chart in the cumulative update), a breakout to new all time highs in the price of gold shouldn't be too far off.






Australia:

The XAO A/D line continued to make higher highs this past week and is now challenging its early August top. If these highs are taken out, this should be enough to move the XAO price pattern above its overhead resistance line. Given the current strength in commodities in general (see the AMEX and TSE cumulative charts), any break above this price resistance line would be enough to open the door for the XAO price pattern to retrace most, if not all, of its correctional structure from the April peak.



England:

The FTSE cumulative A/D line showed renewed strength this past week and has now broken above the horizontal range of the last 4 months. Aside from any further strength where previous trendline support will act as a magnet, the next technical expectation would be for a simple snapback to the upper end of the horizontal range before a more concentrated effort will be seen to re-establish the longer term uptrend from July 2009.



Germany:

The DAX cumulative A/D line is now providing an obligatory snapback to or towards it's previous uptrend that was controlling the pattern. With the other world markets continuing to show buoyant behavior of late, it wouldn't be too surprising to see another sell off take place in this market of stocks in the next week or so in what should be in preparation for a coordinated market bottom in global equities in the next 3 to 4 weeks.




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