Registered: 1101777014 Posts: 4,577
Reply with quote #1
Because of this, and the unfortunate massacre down in the Orlando area earlier today, the expectation is for some follow through weakness on Monday and into Tuesday, but then firming into next Friday's quarterly OPEX.
Well, the market pretty much gave us what we were looking for with Monday and Tuesday providing the bulk of the declines for the week and then moving net sideways into June's quarterly OPEX event. So when the final bell rung on Friday, the major market indices wound up finishing down by an average of 1.33%, with the NASDAQ Composite Index showing the largest loss of -1.92%, while the New York Composite Index was the only major index that didn't close down by more than 1% (-.94%) for the week. Looking over our usual array of cumulative breadth charts show that the NYSE Bond CEF and NYSE Preferred advance/decline lines once again closed at new all time highs, while the Investment Grade and NYSE REIT advance/decline lines just missed in making it a quartet. This ongoing strong flow of investment capital has now driven the yield on the 10 year note to its lowest levels since its all time lows that were last seen in June of 2012, and not be outdone, the yield of the 30 year bond is also at its lowest levels since its all time lows of January 2015, with the 20 year bond hitting new record lows this past Thursday. All in all then, the cost of money remains at historic low levels, and with this abundance of liquidity, this should keep the financial markets, and especially equities, from seeing any important bouts of price decay for several more weeks, if not months. Looking at the precious metals complex and we see that the price of gold closed at its highest levels since January of 2015 on Friday, while the price of silver continues to lag the progress of the yellow metal. Along with the Precious Metals and XAU advance/decline lines continuing to show a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, this would suggest that the trend in the precious metals remains positive, but it wouldn't be too surprising if we see some early weakness next week in order to provide a better platform so that both metals will be able to move in tandem above the various areas of price resistance still yet to be challenged. Looking at the internationals and they remain mixed this week with the Aussie and Bombay advance/decline lines continuing to support advancing trends, while the CAC, DAX and FTSE advance/decline lines remain on the defensive side as we go into next Thursday's historic European Union vote in the United Kingdom. With that said, however, we do note that there was some late week nibbling action in all three of the bourses creating a small bottom above bottom in their structures, so we might see a nice rebound early in the week as we attempt a technical snapback to or toward the lines of what was previous support marked on the charts. So with the BETS moving to a "Hold with a Bullish Bias" signal with a reading of +45, the markets continue to be supported by enormous amounts of cheap cash on a worldwide basis. So much so that the yield on the 10 year German Bund moved to negative interest rates this past week forcing players to move into other products that would provide a positive return on their investment capital. With the interest rate sensitive issues here in the United States continuing to move to higher cumulative highs in their money flow components, our ongoing expectation of seeing higher stock prices going into the July 4th holiday remains in focus, though with the concern by many of the U.K.'s decision hanging in the balance, a more laborious path toward this goal hasn't changed from last week. Have a great trading week! US Equity Markets : US Interest Rates : US Real Estate : Precious Metals: Australia: England: France: Germany: India: __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977