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fib_1618

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US Equity Markets:

The NYSE composite A/D line continues to maintain its accelerated rising bottoms line and this has now pulled the SPX price pattern above its intermediate term declining tops line from the February peak.  The expectation for next week is for the SPX price structure to play catch up to breadth's leading indication of higher highs and a resumption of the longer term trend from last September's lows.
 



The NYSE common only A/D line also continues to maintain is rising structure as well, however, the price pattern of the Dow Industrials has moved to higher highs without the advantage of breadth leadership. Given that we're measuring more than just 30 stocks with the common only data, it will be important that we see a resumption of this common only leadership quality over the Dow early next week or a near term shake out may be needed to get back into a better breadth to price configuration.



The NYSE preferred only A/D line continues to maintain its longer term trending structure of higher highs since the November 2009 lows. As long as this group of stocks continues to rise it promises good things for equities, in general, for the unforeseen future.



US Interest Rates:

The NYSE Bond CEF A/D line continues to move into new all time high territory. As long as these issues maintain this ongoing leadership, it promises us that liquidity levels are more than ample to absorb any or all shocks to the system, and that higher equity prices will be the direct result for some time to come. A higher Bond CEF A/D line also suggests that yields on the 10 year note will continue to ease on a short term to intermediate term basis.



US Real Estate:

The NYSE REIT A/D line moved to new 4 year highs this past week, and we are now less than 600 data points from new all time highs. REIT prices themselves are now at 18 month highs, but remain well below their all time highs of 93.85 made in February of 2007. Overall, this sector has tremendous upside potential given the leadership of its A/D line and remains a solid buy.



Precious Metals:

The Precious Metals cumulative A/D and XAU cumulative A/D lines remain constructive, however, the precious metals breadth line continues to lag gold's progress to higher highs. Between these two areas it is still suggested that any investment in the XAU group of stocks will tend to have a better performance than that of the broader precious metals index where continued due diligence will be needed in maintaining those same positions.






Australia:

The XAO cumulative A/D line continues to be the weakest of all of the global markets covered in this weekly update with the trend decidedly lower. Although the XAO price index has once again been able to test its highs in sympathy of the global buoyancy of late, there are still far better markets to risk ones capital with a potential for a better pay out.



England:

The FTSE cumulative A/D line perceptively broke above its intermediate term declining tops line last week and is now leading price to the upside. Near term expectations are for a challenge of the December A/D line highs, and if successful in breaking above them, a test of the all time price highs of 6732 seems probable.



Germany:

The DAX cumulative A/D line is not only testing its February highs, but breadth continues to lead price to the upside. A break above the February highs near term would be a highly bullish event, with the all time price highs of around 8100 the next technical objective for this German market index.




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