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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
US Equity Markets:

The NYSE composite A/D line continued to maintain its structure of higher highs and higher lows keeping the accelerated uptrend intact. This past weeks shake out also allowed the SPX price structure to once again test its longer term support line. As long as the current trend in the A/D line continues, there will be plenty of liquidity to absorb any near term shocks to the financial system (e.g. - oil prices), and once these issues are resolved, prices should once again continue to follow breadth's lead to the upside.



With t
he news from the Arab states as a backdrop, the NYSE common only A/D line was able to fulfill its technical obligation of a snapback to what was the previous all time highs noted on the chart. Minus any near term choppiness in and around this same area next week, and where the rising bottoms line should provide containment, we should see a resumption to the upside of this breadth aggregate in the not too distant future.  



There were no real changes in the NYSE preferred only A/D line last week as it continues to ride its rising bottoms line to higher levels.



US Interest Rates:

The
NYSE Bond CEF A/D line is now less than 53 data points from moving above its late November highs which would then resume the longer term uptrend on a technical basis. The forecast of a possible blow off in the yield of 10 year notes earlier this month seems to be working out nicely as the uptrend in yields broke its rising bottoms line this past week. All we need now is for the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line to break above the November highs for confirmation of an intermediate term peak in rates, and from where a sideways to downward bias in rates would then be the technical expectation over the next 4-6 weeks.



US Real Estate:

The NYSE REIT A/D line and the REIT price index continue to move in sync with each other to the upside. As long as the intermediate upward trend in breadth remains, prices should continue to follow.



Precious Metals:

An interesting dichotomy developed last week between the Precious Metals A/D line and XAU A/D line as the metals markets reacted violently to the unrest in the Middle East. Although the more broadly based Precious Metals A/D line showed a lack of breadth conviction with the price of gold (and silver), the better capitalized issues that make up the XAU A/D line showed a lot of money flow which provided technical support to the current XAU index to once again challenge its previous all time highs. Unfortunately when we see the "generals" leading the "soldiers" in an implied direction, the overall trend is susceptible to a (sometimes violent) reset so that we can once again have all participants on the same page to trend. In Elliott Wave analysis this would be your classic "B" (or "X") wave structure (in gold) where if something doesn't look or feel right, it usually isn't. Let's then look for a short term pull back beginning next week to "right the ship", and from there we'll see if there's enough of a wash out to once again resume the longer term trend higher with as many precious metals issues on board this time around as possible.






Australia:

After seeing the XAO price index move slightly above its April 2010 highs last week, both it and the XAO A/D line moved sharply lower to where the XAO A/D line actually broke below its intermediate term rising bottoms line in the process. As has been the case for months now, unless this A/D line is able to break above its longer term declining tops line seen on the chart, it's highly unlikely that the price index will be able to put much of an effort together to leave its April 2010 peak behind. This past weeks break of breadth support now puts very heavy pressure on the bulls to not only reverse this near term trend of selling, and if successful in doing so, to then to show a more hearty expectation of future economic growth for the continent by breaking above its overhead resistance or a classic Sign Of the Bear (double top) pattern might be the direct result. Stay tuned.



England:

The FTSE cumulative A/D line continues to show a lot of indecision by traders as it persists to move net sideways. It should be pointed out, however, that last weeks "shaking of the tree" resulted in a more favorable breadth to price configuration for the bulls, and if the current test of trend support is successful for prices, any piece of good news near term should have a positive result to both the patterns overall.



Germany:

Last weeks agitated protests in Northern Africa was able to provide the DAX cumulative A/D line the excuse to fulfill its own technical snapback to what was its previous overhead resistance line seen on the chart. With a simultaneous test of the DAX's rising bottoms line in place, we're now set for at least a near term bounce higher...and maybe more.




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mss

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Reply with quote  #2 
"Unfortunately when we see the "generals" leading the "soldiers" in a implied direction, the overall trend is susceptible to a (sometimes violent) reset so that we can once again have all participants on the same page to trend."

IMO this confirms a early warning in a fast correction of 10%+
mss
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
Quote:
IMO this confirms a early warning in a fast correction of 10%+

Given the backdrop of the recent rise in the metals, 10% would seem to be a reasonable expectation.

Thanks for chiming in.

Fib


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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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