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fib_1618

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It was another good week for the bulls as the NYSE Composite advance/decline line moved to new all time highs mid week before the market finally pulled back to relieve some of its "overbought" condition generated by the one month advance.

Although the New York Composite Index had an easier time of it, the biggest challenge for many of the indices this past week was to move above their early November price highs. But with the NYSE Common Only advance/decline line already having accomplished this feat earlier in the week, and the NASDAQ advance/decline line (see this week's Cumulative Charts) breaking above it's declining tops line, it shouldn't be too long before this hurdle is overcome by the market in general. It should be also duly noted that the BETS indicator moved to its first "accumulation" signal on Friday since August 10th.

In other areas, it would appear that the yield on the 10 year note is now locked within a range between 1.5% and 1.9%. With the NYSE Bond CEF advance/decline line showing a slight break of trend this past week, we will use this data as our proxy as to any eventual breakout we may see from this same range going forward.

The Precious Metals and XAU advance/decline lines continued their effort in securing a tradable bottom at or near multi month support levels, with the good news coming from the McClellan Summation Index (not shown) that turned up this past week from "oversold" levels along with the XLB sector ETF finally moving above its MCSUM zero line to its highest levels since April. Any further strength above the declining tops lines drawn on the charts would therefore provide enough leverage to begin accumulating issues in this sector for at least a counter trend play...maybe more.

Finally, the internationals continue to show bullish characteristics with both the DAX and FTSE advance/decline lines improving on their recent new highs from last week, while Australia's All Ordinaries Index moved to new 2012 closing price highs. However, these new price highs in the Ords come with a problem as the Aussie advance/decline line continues to show a series of tops beneath tops in its structure. This could be partially remedied with a breakout above this negative line of influence, but overall, once any new found energy wanes, this will leave a vacuum between the internals and price that will need to be corrected, and this usually comes with a violent outcome. But for now, the trend remains up until proven otherwise.

Have a great week!

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