Registered: 1101777014 Posts: 4,785
Reply with quote #1
For now, any pullbacks should continue to be short and rather shallow affairs, with volatility continuing until we finally see some sort of buy side exhaustion from this current run up. Once the pause has provided enough of an affect to once again produce negative sentiment, we should then be ready to see new all time price highs in many of the major market indices that trade in the United States.
As it turned out, it was a rather tepid week of trading, as the major market indices wound up gaining an average of .45%, week over week, this time being led by the Dow Industrials and its 1.05% gain. A cursory view of this weeks breadth charts array shows that, with the exception of the NYSE Specialty CEF and NYSE REIT advance/decline lines, all continued their weekly gains to higher highs. In fact, the NYSE Composite advance/decline line is now less than 2075 net advancing issues from new all time territory while the NYSE Common Only advance/decline line is in need of 3280 net issues to meet this same goal. As long as we continue to see money flowing into the equity markets, and especially into the interest rate sensitive A/D line derivatives, the path of least resistance for prices will remain to the upside. Over in the precious metals, we saw that both gold and silver finally broke their downside destructive behavior with a short covering rally in typical snapback action toward last December's area of previous price support. A look at both the Precious Metals and XAU advance/decline lines also shows that though precious metals stocks participated fully in this bear market bounce, both of these same money flow lines remain under the heavy influence of their declining trendlines. As long as the trend of money remains as highly negative as it currently is, we should continue to expect that prices in the metals themselves will maintain their weakness over the next several weeks. Over in Europe, both the DAX and FTSE advance/decline lines continue to show good constructive technical evidence after testing and finding renewed support on their previous rising trendlines from September of last year. As with the NYSE breadth charts that are covered here in these weekly updates, as long as this series of rising bottoms continues, we should expect to see prices in both the DAX and FTSE remain buoyant in their attempt to challenge their declining trendlines noted on their respective charts. So...another week has come and gone as the fuel and momentum of the mid October hard thrust reversal has seen prices closing higher for 3 straight weeks. However, with the BETS indicator still showing a lack of confirmation with these higher highs, we should continue to be on guard to seeing a one to two week digestion period to help give the commodity based Canadian markets an opportunity to play catch up to this same re-initiation thrust seen in the US markets. Taking the two together then, let's maintain last week's expectation of short and shallow price pullbacks to continue, with choppy sideways behavior becoming more evident, and with any near term surprises to be positive ones to the upside as we move into this month's OPEX period on November 21st. Have a great trading week! US Equity Markets : US Interest Rates : US Real Estate : Precious Metals: Australia: England: Germany: __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977