Registered: 1101777014 Posts: 4,530
Reply with quote #1
Because of this, it wouldn't be too surprising to see the beginning of a 2-3 week period of choppy, volatile behavior going into OPEX on the 20th, but this time with a bearish aura accompaniment.
Well, it was choppy and volatile, but not exactly with a "bearish aura", as the major market indices finished the week higher by an average of 1.46% from last Friday's close, with the Small Caps showing the most amount of strength with an average gain of 3.00%, while the New York Composite once again brought up the rear by only adding .50% to last week's settlement. Although the interest rate sensitive issues took it on the chin with Friday's robust job's report (especially the REIT advance/decline line), the real technical damage came in the precious metals arena as the price of gold was down $52.80 (-4.62%) as it played a game of "hurry and catch up" to the weakness we've been seeing in both the Precious Metals and XAU advance/decline lines over the last two months. With the price of gold closing Friday at its lowest weekly levels since February of 2010, along with the PM A/D lines making new all time lows of their own, the longer term downside price target of $985 for gold looks to be a doable objective for this current price sequence. For the gold bulls, it's now time again to look for the development of divergence between the precious metals stocks in relation to this same downside price target as being a whisper that the larger correctional sequence from the 2011 highs might be finally coming to a conclusion...most likely in the month of December. If, on the other hand, the PM A/D lines continue to make lower lows as we approach the $1000 level, this would then signify that we will likely see continued bearish action in this asset class into the first half of 2016...with the next probable turn in April. Other than that, it was a pretty good week overall as global equity markets took everything pretty much in stride in spite of the idea that an increase in short term rates might be more of a reality now if the FED is going to follow through on their promise in using the jobs data as their proxy in making such decisions. So with the BETS climbing back into neutral territory, and many of the domestic and international breadth MCO's showing an impressive amount of resiliency even with all the talk of monetary tightening here in the United States, let's go back to a more neutral approach towards stocks as we come out of the gate on Monday and allow the market's rhythm dictate if this new found clarity on rates is enough of a spark to continue the drive of investment capital into the market to challenge the summer price highs or, as we presumed last week, a 2/3 week period of digestion of the 6 week advance is indeed needed before we move into the holiday season. Have a great trading week! US Equity Markets : US Interest Rates : US Real Estate : Precious Metals: Australia: England: France: Germany: India: __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977