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fib_1618

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US Equity Markets:

After a brief digestion period over the last two weeks, the NYSE composite A/D line accelerated higher at the end of the week to new all time highs. This acceleration thrust in the A/D line was in conjunction with the SPX breaking back above the price peak seen last April. With the NYSE breadth McClellan Summation Index still slightly below its October highs, it will be important for the bulls to see good follow through early next week or we might be looking at a multi week correctional period as the advancing price pattern meets the upside price objective that was given on October 8th. Good follow through, however, will then give new upside price objectives to work with moving forward.



Not only is the NYSE common only A/D line within striking distance of eclipsing its April highs, but it's now less than 5200 data points from reaching its all time highs. Bottoms above bottoms continue to control the intermediate term pattern. Near term, however, this A/D line is slightly lagging the Dow price pattern to the upside, so unless the bulls show go follow through near term, we might be in store for a multi day reset period to get things back into a better breadth to price configuration.



No real changes with the NYSE preferred only A/D line as it continues to move to a new all time highs. As long as this A/D line supports a series of bottoms above bottoms, it promises higher prices for the equity markets overall. It should also be duly noted that the New York Composite Index is now 150 points from reaching its upside price objective.



US Interest Rates:

After moving net sideways for the last 4 weeks, the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line has once again moved to new all time highs this past week. As long as this A/D line continues to trend to higher highs, it's a very low probability that equity prices will see anything more than a pause in the ongoing uptrend. The yield on the 10 year note is now in the process of snapping back to or towards its declining tops line, and it should continue to stay around its historic lows for as long as this A/D line maintains its bullish structure.



US Real Estate:

After snapping back to both its breakout and trend lines last week, the NYSE REIT A/D Line then moved to higher highs along with the price action of the REIT index itself. Although price continues to lead breadth at this juncture, the character of both the price and breadth uptrends suggest that we should continue to look for higher highs until proven otherwise.



Precious Metals:

After taking a pause with the rest of the market last week, the Precious Metals A/D line and XAU A/D lines moved to new recovery highs confirming the new all time highs in both the price of gold and the XAU price index. As long as this bullish configuration between breadth and price exists, the precious metals arena should continue to see higher price highs.






Australia:

After perceptively breaking above its 2nd fan formation declining tops line last week, the XAO A/D line continued to hold above this breakout area in spite of Australia's Central Bank raising its cash rate by 1/4%. As long as this break above resistance holds, this will now allow the XAO index to proceed in challenging its April price highs.



England:

Although the FTSE price index moved above its April price highs last week, the FTSE cumulative A/D line did not confirm the breakout. As with the NYSE data, it will be important near term for the FTSE bulls to rectify this breadth to price configuration promptly or a multi day reset will likely be the result.



Germany:

The DAX price index continues to show robust upside behavior without the DAX cumulative A/D line confirming the move. As with several markets already discussed, it will be highly important for the DAX bulls to show some better conviction near term or a hard pull back might evolve to fill the vacuum that has been created by this lack of structural dynamic.




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