Registered: 1101777014 Posts: 4,806
Reply with quote #1
But when Friday finally rolls around, the expectation is for another positive week overall as the market prepares for what should be bullish December.
With the help of the NASDAQ Composite's 1.67% gain, the major market indices were up only slightly this past week by an average of .19% in what turned out to be more like a car spinning its wheels in a pool of mud without gaining much in the way of traction. Speaking of the NASDAQ, it should be duly noted that its had higher daily closes now for 24 out of the last 31 trading days for a ratio of 77% to the good, and it's riding a winning streak of 6 higher weekly closes during this time for an overall price gain of around 670 points (a little over 16%). Not bad. And if that wasn't enough, Friday's close puts the Composite just 256.99 points away from its all time closing highs of 5048.62. Nope, not bad at all. Looking at the breadth charts array for this past week and we see that money flow continued to move into equities on a broad front with the NYSE Composite and NYSE Preferred advance/decline lines both making new all time highs on Wednesday, while the NYSE Bond CEF and NYSE REIT advance/decline lines actually settled on Friday at these same lofty levels. We also see that both the NYSE Common Only and NYSE Specialty CEF advance/decline lines also showed participation as well with the commons actually breaking perceptively above its declining tops line in this same effort. With the holiday week now behind us, and given that this weeks BETS number took a licking as it moved back into negative territory on the back of deep declines in both crude oil (-14%!) and the metals, it will be crucial now for the buyers to continue to flex their muscles to help offset this commodity weakness and that equity prices will continue to rise in spite of this. We will note, however, that with the NYSE Bond CEF advance/decline line now back into new all time high territory, this us that we will see higher equity prices in the near future...with only the amplitude of these same gains being called into question. promises With the US markets taking their holiday pause this past week, we see that this allowed both the DAX and FTSE advance/decline lines to play catch up as they also showed good cumulative gains with the DAX now 20 net advancing issues and 48.58 points away from its all time highs, while the FTSE is 47 net advancing issues and 207.58 points from new all time highs of its own. With the NYSE, DAX and FTSE currently playing tag with their all time cumulative highs, this would suggest that we are back to being globally synchronized to see gains or losses concurrently on either side of the Atlantic moving forward. On the negative side, the metals complex got hammered on Friday as the price of gold was down 2.97% for the week while silver was down 6.45% and is now challenging its early November lows. Looking at the Precious Metals and XAU advance/decline lines and we see that they also took it on the chin on Friday with only one issue in the basket of 56 PM stocks ending higher for the day, though both A/D lines remain well above their recent lows in what could be the beginning of constructing foundational internal lows for each. We also see that the Aussie advance/decline line continues to reflect this ongoing weakness in the metals as it closed at 17 month lows, while up in Canada, the TSX and the TSX Ventures indexes (see cumulative charts) showed price losses of 2% and 5% respectively over the last two days. Given the way these same late week collapses came about, we'll go with the idea that a technical snapback in the metals is now complete, and that our ongoing downside targets of $1100 and $986 in the price of gold are back on the front burner moving forward into the end of the year. So...there wasn't much in the way of grand excitement this past week, though the market internals continued to show solid money flows into the composite equity markets of the U.S., England and Germany. Continued follow through will allow prices to remain buoyant, but with all of their McClellan Summation Index' now above "escape velocity" levels (+592, +853, +996 respectively), we'll continue to give the benefit of any doubt to the bulls for the next couple of weeks with many historic records being broken in this same effort. Any further pauses along this path of least resistance should be of the intraday variety with swift, shallow price pullbacks, with the continued expectation of seeing new all time price highs in the NASDAQ Composite Index by the end of December. Have a great trading week! US Equity Markets : US Interest Rates : US Real Estate : Precious Metals: Australia: England: Germany: __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977