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fib_1618

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Please note that this weeks charts have now been rescaled to provide better insight moving forward.

US Equity Markets
:

The NYSE composite A/D line has continued to maintain its constructive behavior by being able to hold above its intermediate term rising bottoms line shown in orange. The very recent bottoms above bottoms in this same structure suggests that the bulls continue to be in charge of the direction in price. If, however, the bears are able to penetrate below this line near term, the longer term rising bottoms line, shown in brown, should be able to keep the current rising structure intact going into the end of the year.



Unlike the
NYSE composite A/D line, the NYSE common only A/D line continues to have its problems in moving above the spring highs. The good news here is that the current pullback has been shallow enough where we might be setting a platform to eventually break through this line of intermediate term resistance, and with it, a vigorous challenge of the all time highs just above that. Looking closely at the breadth to price interplay of the last week, and we're starting to see that breadth is holding up better than price right now. This might suggest that the current correction might be close to completion.



No real changes with the NYSE preferred only A/D line as it continues to move sideways well above its longer term rising bottoms line. As long as this rising trend line isn't violated, this would suggest a bullish outcome once this pause to refresh has completed.



US Interest Rates:

After breaking below its longer term rising bottoms earlier this month, the
NYSE Bond CEF A/D line has now fulfilled the technical expectation of a simple snapback to or towards this same line of prior positive influence. With the small upside breakout of the triangle outlined on the yield of the 10 year note still yet to reach its objective of around 3%, the odds would favor another move lower in the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line near term. If, however, we're able to re-establish the longer term upward trend, this should be enough to "raise all (equity) ships" to higher breadth and price highs, and with it, a snapback back down in yields to the short term rising bottoms line from the October lows.



US Real Estate:

The NYSE REIT A/D Line continues to move within the confines of an ascending triangle configuration. The good news for the bulls here is that the recent pullback in price has now brought breadth and price into a more positive configuration from where an upside breakout in this ascending triangle would now be doable. Stay tuned.



Precious Metals:

Both the Precious Metals A/D line and XAU A/D line remain in their rising trend channels. This is important information in that it would be highly unlikely that the price of gold would be tracing out (what looks to be) a head and shoulders top as a break of the A/D trend would had already been noted prior to the creation of the right shoulder. Given the nice support shown with the XAU price pattern at its old all time highs, it could very well be that we're close to some sort of tradable bottom in this sector.






Australia:

After breaking above its intermediate term declining tops line earlier this month, the XAO A/D line has now fulfilled the technical expectation of a snapback to or towards this same line of prior negative influence. It will now be important for the bulls to re-establish their directional control of the last 6 months or further corrective activity back to the rising bottoms lines from July bottoming period would be the direct result going into the end of the year.



England:

After finding it tough going to move above the overhead resistance line seen on the chart, the FTSE cumulative A/D line has now fully retraced back down to its rising bottoms line where it found trend support last week. With the FTSE breadth MCSUM (not shown) now showing a reading of -284, it wouldn't be too surprising if a breadth and price bottom was created this past week given this compliment to the trend bounce.



Germany:

The DAX cumulative A/D line continues to be having its problems of moving to new highs. With the DAX price pattern pushing higher highs without the benefit of breadth leading the way, this continues to be an accident waiting to happen. With price now perceptively above the upper boundaries of the patterns rising trend channel, if the bulls don't belly up quickly, we might be looking at a hard and fast decline as soon as next week to once again attempt a reset.




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