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fib_1618

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This weeks chart array continues to support corrective action overall as we note that prices are generally leading cumulative breadth to the downside, and in several instances, this lack of breadth leadership is remarkable in its amplitude.

On a negative note, the BETS indicator did turn to a "cash position" this week after being on a "Hold with a Bullish Bias" signal at the beginning of October. As we have noted in the chat sessions, this turn in the indicator does compliment not only our mid October top forecast given by the NYSE breadth McClellan Summation Index back in early September, but this also coincides nicely to our ongoing forecast of a trading range where the lack of any advancing or declining trending movement is noted on a short term basis (that of 4-6 weeks), and would be in keeping with a correctional sequence in progress.

On a positive note, the NYSE Bond CEF advance/decline line moved once again to new all time highs on Friday which suggests that liquidity remains more than ample to continue support prices in and around current levels. We also note the the Open 10 TRIN remains quite "oversold" here which will tend to keep prices from declining in any important way. Also on the radar are the various breadth MCSUM's structures that continue to show a lack of conviction by the sellers. Given that some have already traced out either ledges or fishhooks, and in some cases both of these structures with the current sequence, this would suggest that we're close to some sort of completion of this phase of the current corrective period that got started earlier in the month.

Also showing a positive nature is the XAU advance/decline line which is supporting bullish divergence with the basket price of this index, and the Aussie advance/decline line which continues to show a positive correlation to this same divergent structure in the XAU. This would suggest that the best of any decline in the price of the precious metals from our sell signal of a couple of weeks ago could now be behind us, and like the general market, we might be beginning stages of constructing enough of a platform to where a new advancing sequence will get its support.

Have a great week of trading!


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