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fib_1618

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The next near term challenge for the bulls is to take out the reaction highs seen (on the NYSE composite and common only A/D charts) at the end of August on both of these charts. Based on the McClellan Oscillator, however, this shouldn't be too much of a problem as we have already taken out these comparable reaction highs this past week.

After taking a well deserved rest for much of the week, the market finally moved above the August A/D line highs on Friday fulfilling this next technical expectation. Prices on the DJIA, OEX, SPX and COMPQ also broke out above their 50% retracement levels from their May price highs to their October lows along with closing above their 200 day EMA's, but there are still some of the more broadly based averages, most notably the NYA, that have yet to fulfill these same technical chart structures. So although we had a positive note to finish the week, the bulls still have plenty of work to do to get all of the market averages in fully agreeing on our next pattern sequence.

Elsewhere, the NYSE bond CEF and preferred stock advance/decline lines closed Friday at new all time highs, and other than that, there wasn't a whole lot that happened during the week except maybe for an obligatory snapback here and there. However, the REIT price index did break above its declining tops line on Friday which fulfilled this expectation given by the buoyancy of the NYSE REIT advance/decline line over the last two months.

So the bottom line for this week is to be sure that we continue our discipline by watching any long positions closely and not be lulled into any bullish "complacency" until more broadly based evidence is provided that will allow us to do so.

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