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TW Member
Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #1 
Monday -

15:33 -  SOX - 484-486
breakout area now being retested.

11:20 - NTES
on today's rally.... esignal shows a daily PSAR buy...the first since ealry November. Caution: note the hourly and daily channel.

Note the recent lows between 55-56 that have been tested for a few weeks now. Friday's low was 56.15, which is the lowest price since 12/7.

from 12/8 - Bear Stearns assumes coverage, maintains Outperform and $81 tgt (NTES) 56.96 : Bear Stearns is assuming coverage of Netease (NTES), maintains an Outperform rating on the stock with a year-end 2006 target price of $81. Firm states co is a benchmark firm for innovation and leadership and, while they expect near-term flattening in growth from the co's existing two massively multiplayer online role-playing game, two new self-developed games are slated to launch in 2006, one of which, the 3D game "Tianxia, " could prove to be the industry's next blockbuster. Despite market sentiment to the contrary, firm does not believe that competitor Shanda's switch to a free-to-play model, or other smaller operators pursuing such an approach, warrant any concern that existing or pipeline subscription-only games will be pressured to follow suit.


11:08 - RTK
high of 4.20 today tested the recent all-time highs of 4.22. Executive appointment announced today.

09:26 PNRA Panera Bread tgt raised to $85 at WR Hambrecht

09:20 NMGC NeoMagic stock running up 8.5% in pre market after A.P. story released Friday afternoon (7.58 )

Friday afternoon Associated Press ran a story commenting on the movement by NMGC. States that there was no news from the company, but Needham & Co. analyst Quinn Bolton speculated that investors may have been 'gobbling up the stock out of enthusiasm for the mobile television market'... "They're well positioned in the mobile television market, and there aren't a lot of pure plays there," Bolton said. "It's possible, too, that investors may see it as an acquisition target -- Broadcom bought its competitor, Alphamosaic, over a year ago. NeoMagic has technology value, and they may be what's getting people interested in the stock." (Note: Needham has an investment banking relationship with NMGC)... stock trading at $8.30, +0.72 in pre market.

09:16 Longbow initiates select beverage companies

Longbow initiates HANS with a Buy and $118 tgt; initiates PBG with a Buy and $38 tgt and initiates PAS with a Buy and $29 tgt. Firm also initiates CCE, COT and FIZ with Neutrals.

10:16 Feb gold is up $6 to $511.80 (range is 505.10 to 512.20)

10:10 Metal Mining stocks trading at session highs, led by TRE +5.6%, PAL +4.4%, TIE +3.1%, CCJ +2.3%, PCU +1.6%

Note that TRE (4.65 +0.35) is trading at new 52-week high.

premarket - Gold stocks are strong as JP Morgan raised its '06 forecast to $560/oz: GFI +4%, GLD +1.2%.

8:51 - Feb Gold is up $4.50 to $510.30 per troy ounce (505.10 to 512.20 range on the COMEX); gold stocks look poised to rise this morning after JP Morgan raised their 2006 gold forecast to $560 an ounce. March silver (most active contract) is up 7 cents to $8.67 (8.535 to 8.695 range seen); silver stocks (PAAS, SIL, SSRI, SLW, HL) typically follow the spot contract and should rise in early trading...


08:58 GOOG Google tgt upped to $475 at Jefferies (430.15 ) -Update-

Jefferies raises their GOOG tgt to $475 from $377, as they view a $1 bln investment for a 5% stake in AOL as positive for GOOG on a number of strategic and tactical fronts; including a stronger search relationship, expansion into display advertising and weakening MSN.

08:16 CRM downgrade details (35.02 )

UBS downgraded CRM to Reduce from Neutral as they are concerned about investor expectations for growth in CY06, the likelihood that it will experience its fist q/q decline in subscriber adds in the year, and competitive products that could hit the market over the next 12 months. They think the co could continue to outperform near term, but say the upside is likely limited as compared with expectations.


Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon


TW Member
Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #2 

18:30 - PALM
after hours session trading high is 33.39 so far. Note the hourly volume during after hours trading vs. average hourly volume.

18:10 PALM Palm: Conference Call Summary (30.94 ) -Update-

Very positive Palm call: Co touts 78% share of U.S. handhelds market; co says 32% of its customers will upgrade to a smart phone, and co suggests most will move to a Treo. Co says Treo 700 on Windows is expected to ship on time; Palm says it will introduce 4 new smart phones. Co touts 8th-consecutive qtr of double-digit revs growth. Co says highest growth opp over time is outside the U.S. Smart phone revs up 86% vs. year ago; co shipped 602,000 Treos in the qtr. Co expects margin improvement heading into the 2H of its fiscal year. Co expects 33.0-33.5% gross margins in Q3; op ex of $99-101 ex items. Analysts want to know about int'l growth, how co will expand in Europe. Co notes work w/ carrier partners, more work to develop relationships there, doesn't give specifics, but says Euro partners will contribute to revs in '06. Analysts also ask about new models coming: Co says it doesn't expect to do anything beyond the Treo brand. Palm says it will focus on radio technologies, exploiting both Palm and MSFT platforms more effectively, and do things in conjunction w/ new carriers and geographies. Palm also expects form factor improvements.

17:42 company states during conf. call tonight that it plans to launch four new smart phones early next year...and that is working on models for other US and foreign carriers that will have similar functionality as the 700W, which is exclusive to Verizon .

16:48 PALM Palm beats by $0.03, guides above consensus (30.90 +1.05)

Reports Q2 (Nov) earnings of $0.47 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.44; revenues rose 18.2% year/year to $444.6 mln vs the $440.8 mln consensus. Co shipped over 1 mln Treos in 2H, implying over 530k shipped in Q2. Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.31-0.33 vs. $0.29 consensus; sees Q3 revs of $370-375 mln vs. $365.70 mln consensus. Palm sees Q3 gross margins of 33-33.5%.

prior to market close - note
that PALM which reports earnings tonight is at the bottom of an unfilled gap. One analyst today is expecting upside from the report. (Also note the price channel on the weekly comprised of the declining tops....for a guide to a potential further breakout point or resistance)


DO closed today at a price that retraced all the losses of the prior two trading days:

the losses represented nothing more than a 3-box reversal on the PnF chart seen above....this is customary price behavior.

NBR for comparison -


3-box PnF reversal in play today. Is there more downside to come? Note the lower upsloping channel line on the weekly is at lower prices.

Note the daily price channel.


tested the 50 sma/ema's today....closed below the 50 ema....a negative crossover of the 8 vs. the 34 ema is very close and the 8 ema continues the downward angle. Note the Bollinger Bands. Distance from the daily price candle and the PSAR sell line continues to increase.

Note the price level of the uptrend line on the PnF chart.


3-box reversal in play on the PnF chart....price closed just above the 50 sma.


15:45 HANS
- has moved above the high of 12/15.

13:51 Gold falls $9.10 to close at $497 on the COMEX; 1st close sub $500 since Nov 30

12:49 CRM notches fresh session low of 33.80, nearing initial support at yesterday's low of 33.71 (33.81 -0.72) -Technical-

Congestive support below here is in the 33.45/33.40 area.

12:05 GLD streetTRACKS Gold Shares breaking down, coming into support in the 49.50 area (49.51 -0.71)

11:23 - HANS - has
moved above the 3-day top.

09:48 IWM Russell 2000 Ishare -- sets new 4 wk low, testing its 50 day ema at 66.70 (66.70 -0.30)

08:58 MRVL Marvell tgt upped to $66 at Amtech (58.06 )

Amtech raises their MRVL tgt to $66 from $60, saying recent proprietary checks with industry and channel sources have led them to believe that MRVL is benefiting from favorable trends in HDDs and optical storage that impact the near-term, and more importantly, 2006. Their sources indicate that Toshiba will soon debut a higher capacity 80 GB microdrive version at the upcoming C.E.S. in Las Vegas that could be used in future vPods and other storage-hungry devices. In optical, they believe MRVL is currently engaged in next-generation S.O.C. design activity with at least three leading players in DVD recording drives for PC desktops and notebooks with more material revenue contribution in 2H06. Firm raises their current qtr (Q4) and FY07 ests above

08:36 ESRX Express Scripts tgt upped to $90 at Prudential (87.96 )

08:35 S&P futures vs fair value: +2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0.

Futures trade gets a boost following encouraging economic data and now suggests a higher open for the indices. Total Nov. PPI fell 0.7%, due to lower energy prices, while core PPI rose just 0.1%, also better than forecasts, suggesting inflation remains contained at the wholesale level.

08:26 Boone Pickens appears on CNBC

Boone Pickens appears on CNBC to discuss the price of oil. His 2006 predictions is that oil will go down, slide off to $50-$53, citing too much oil. Demand destruction comes with price increase, believes it's the solution. Long term he says we will see triple digit oil, not exactly sure when, but it will be based on the normal course of business. When asked about collusion for natty gas, says that there is no time to collude, the cos are too busy (see 02:45 WSJ comment for color). He predicts early in next year you'll see oil prices at their lowest, same with gasoline, and he believes gasoline drops to the $2 level and then will be back at the 3$ level by the end of the year. For next year sees $55-$65 range for crude,and sees $8 to $12-$14 on natty gas.


Boone Pickens said on CNBC that oil will go down in 2006, and will slide to $50-$53; also that natural gas could go to $8-$9 depending on weather. Pickens also says he thinks COP made a good buy long-term w/ BP; does say oil will hit triple digits if Venezuela has a civil war; maintains we will see $100 oil pbl w/o any unusual events sometime in the future; says LNG market will get stronger. Pickens also says gasoline will be back up near record $3 levels by next year;

JMP initiates Broadcom (BRCM 47.01) with a Mkt Perform; While the co's growth has accelerated in recent quarters, firm believes that the mkt fully recognizes its near-term growth potential.

JMP Securities initiates WebMD (WBMD 30.59) with a Mkt Perform as they believe the current valuation reflects their optimistic growth outlook and may not be reflective of some of the investment risks...
08:06 RHAT Red Hat target raised to $29 from $21 at First Albany (26.03 )

08:06 Goldman Sachs raises gold price forecasts

Goldman Sachs selects "Long Gold" as one of its top trading picks for 2006 due to inflation concerns against a backdrop of still abundant global liquidity, concerns over all major currencies, uncertainty over the impact of the US current account deficit and US housing market, on rates and the US Dollar. Firm raises its gold forecasts to $515/oz from $430 in 2006 and to $500/oz from $400 in 2007. Firm expects prices to trade in $475-$550/oz range over the next 12 mos. Firm favorite gold stocks: NEM, FCX.

Prudential initiates Cheesecake Factory (CAKE 37.84) with a Neutral and $40 tgt, as they have concerns that 2006 EPS growth could dip below its 20% plus target and could fall below estimates due to rising operating costs, limited aid from commodities and inefficiencies from its new bakery.


Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon


TW Member
Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #3 
Wednesday -

16:56 CHK Chesapeake Energy President Tom Ward buys 50k shares at 32.49-32.55

16:55 CHK Chesapeake Energy Chairman & CEO Aubrey McClendon buys another 100k shares at 32.38-32.50 -Update-

13:53 - LFL - note the daily and weekly PSAR....daily PSAR buy triggered by today's high.   Note the convergence of the 50 and 200 ma's.  Compare this one to GOL which serves the neighboring Brazilian market.

13:02 - new 52-wk highs:


11:51 - CRM
today's low tested the low of 12/02 and the high of 11/29

KFX - note the daily channel and today's volume.

11:33 KFX KFX: Continue to expect a short-squeeze to play out - Natexis Bleichroeder (15.25 +1.04) -Update-

Natexis Bleichroeder continues to expect a KFX short-squeeze to play out around the following catalysts: 1) sending K-Fuel to Black Hills for initial test burns: expected by year-end 2005; 2) getting test results back from the initial test burn: expected 6-8 weeks into 1Q06; 3) finishing the new silo: expected by the end of 1Q06; 4) sending out the first unit train of K-Fuel: expected in spring 2006; and 5) releasing new forecasts and/or financial metrics for the cos plants and business plan: expect something along these lines to be announced around the time (or perhaps after) KFX releases its full-year 2005 results. Maintains $19 fair value estimate.

16:00 CLF - PSAR buy on the daily today and a close above the 21 ema. Note today's volume and the price trend relative to the 5 ema and the 8 ema.

10:54 CLF - 91.85-92.18 note these past candle highs on the daily. Note the current PSAR sell test on the daily. Note the test of the daily downsloping channnel. Note the move above the 21 ema on an intraday basis today.

09:11 BEAV BE Aerospace -- price target raised at CSFB, reiterates Outperform (20.61 )

Credit Suisse First Boston calls BEAV analyst day bullish, raises target by $4 to the $24-$25 range, reiterates Outperform; says co is well positioned to grow its leading market share as aircraft deliveries ramp, corresponding to higher EPS. Cos' $1 bln backlog is being driven by retrofit orders from non-U.S. carriers; says backlog can create opportunities for additional business from the likes of British Airways, others. Firm adds that BEAV can achieve 100-200 bps of margin improvement over the next 3-5 years.

07:47 Early Research Calls V

Upgrades: Sandler O'Neill upgrades Clark (CLK 12.67) to Hold from Sell on valuation... Downgrades: Goldman Sachs downgrades Westwood One (WON 16.19) to In-Line from Outperform as they expect the stock to trade in line with their broadcasting coverage group... Miscellaneous: Lehman initiates Avon Products (AVP 29.18) with an Underweight and $27 tgt as they believe direct selling is a momentum business and AVP's sales are declining or decelerating in 6 of its top 7 markets which account for 65% of sales... Goldman Sachs says that while it can't recommend Apple (AAPL 72.11) as more than a trade into MacWorld as it seems fairly valued, the firm raises its CY'06 EPS estimate of $1.92 from $1.73.

07:37 TASR TASER started with a Buy at Merriman (6.15 )

Merriman initiates TASRE with a Buy. Firm estimates that the co has only penetrated 12% of the potential domestic law enforcement mkt. FIrm also believes that many of the factors that have negatively impacted sales over the past year are lessening — presenting an opportunity before sales resume an upward climb in FY06. Firm expects to see TASRE shares approaching the $9.20 level over the next 12 months.


Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon


TW Member
Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #4 
Thursday -

15:36 Point Gainers List

Stock pacing the way on a point basis include: HUM +7.20, RIMM +6.71, GRMN +5.50, CEPH +4.37, GOOG +3.79, ISRG +3.39, CME +2.95, ATU +2.89, GPN +2.88, BCRX +2.36, NVL +2.32, SNDK +2.29, OSIP +2.26, AGN +2.22, RGLE +1.97, JEC +1.95, HRS +1.95, LRCX +1.93, BUCY +1.92.

15:38 Point Losers List

Issues posting the largest losses on a point basis include: CTHR -9.51, HHGP -7.52, BBBY -4.93, TUES -2.28, PAYX -1.89, ARI -1.81, MLHR -1.70, RECN -1.57.


recent test of the 50 sma -

Janco raised their tgt on Broadwing (BWNG +4.4%) to $10 from $7.25. The firm said that the co is starting to benefit from the consolodation in the enterprise space. The firm believes that BWNG has a good reputation in the enterprise space and is starting to see more business from its existing customer base, and that they expect that trend to continue into 2006. The firm stated that BWNG's network is state of the art and with their converged (layer 2 and layer 3) network product they are gaining the attention of large enterprise customers.


12:12 NUE Nucor downgrade details -Update-

As mentioned at 11:56, Prudential downgraded NUE to Underweight from Neutral-Weight because they believe the steel market is in fundamental oversupply, and it seems that consumption will be slowing heading into next year. Firm says that a good portion of their "bear expectation" concerning the steel market already has developed, as selling prices down one-third for spot hot-rolled sheet and substantial drops in apparent consumption in 2005 represent the reversal of last year's excesses.

12:09 STLD Steel Dynamics has potential 25% downside -- Longbow (34.77 -0.63)

Longbow remains negative on the steel sector and believes investors should sell into recent strength based on: (1) flat rolled steel price weakness; (2) lower contract prices; (3) sluggish Big-3 automotive sales/production; and (4) higher natural gas prices. Firm believes the industry is beginning a down cycle, suggesting earnings will decline into 2007. At the same time, firm does not see major industry consolidation until the valuations on the group become much more compelling... Firm sees at least 25% downside risk to Steel Dynamics (STLD). The co's exposure to the flat rolled sheet market (70-80% of STLD shipments) will more than offset the recent market strength in certain long product categories. Firm's revised price target is $26 per share.

12:09 Steel sector slumps following NUE downgrade, led by WOR -3.2%, NUE -2.5%, STLD -1.6%, SID -1.5%, AKS -1.3%, X -1.1%

11:56 NUE Nucor slips to session lows, intraday downgrade cited (66.86 -1.04)


11:43 New 52-Week Highs: Technology and Gold

Technology and gold stocks are leading the new 52-week high list today. Tallies so far today for new highs vs lows are 77-62 (NYSE) and 83-34 (Nasdaq)... Sectors with good representation on the new high list today include Internet (ADAM, TSCM, WBMD), Technology (CTXS, DTAS, ECLG, INFA, INFY, KNXA, NWRE, RACK, RHAT, WTHN), Semi/Semi Equipment (AMD, ATRM, JBL, PLXS, SIGM, STAK), Retail (ANN, GYMB, ODP), Biotech/Pharma (ARNA, BAY, BBC, DDD, PPCO, VRTX), Mining Equipment (BUCY, JOYG), Gold/Mining (AEM, AU, CBJ, EGO, GLG, GRS, KGC, RGLD, SA), Recent IPOs (FMCN, ITRN, KNXA, RACK, WTHN), Oil Services (BR, DO, RIG), Healthcare (HUM, NDC, PDX, SIE).

10:39 AAPL Relative Strength: Apple Computer tests Dec 13 gap high of 74.21, resistance around 74.70-74.90 (74.29 +0.79)


look for breakout failure or continuation...see PnF chart in the chart gallery link above

note the bearish gap of mid-November

10:36 SNDK SanDisk testing Dec high of 60.69, gap resistance at 60.82 (60.66 +1.18)


14:37 RIMM Research In Motion sets new session high, resistance at 200 ema of 69.06 (68.56 +6.80)

12:21 PALM Palm Taking Share from Blackberry -- Caris (32.27 +0.37)

Caris notes in the November quarter, Palm shipped about 500 K Treos vs RIMM's 1.1 million. However, PALM's growth in unit shipments of Treos is outstripping that of RIMM's. Treo units doubled yoy in the first six months of fiscal 2006, while RIMM's BlackBerry units grew about 50% yoy over the same period. Also, Palm raised guidance on revenues, while RIMM kept theirs the same. Further, Palm is introducing four new products in fiscal 2006, which is more than RIMM's expected three new products. PALM's expected new Treo smartphones should help make it become more competitive in the lower-end consumer segment, The new Treos for Europe should also help spark growth in the international market, especially where prices are stable. RIMM, on the other hand, is focusing on the Chinese market, where price competition is brutal.

10:32 RIMM - testing 66.85 December high.


16:00 new highs -


Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon


TW Member
Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #5 
Friday -

15:29 Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include:

MXO +57.0%, APFC +48.9%, MUSE +32.4%, HAUP +29.8%, AGIX +27.2%, WDC +24.2%, DPTR +23.1%, STXS +22.1%, CESV +21.9%, NVL +20.4%, ERES +19.9%, BKHM +19.4%, TSCM +18.3%, WPCS +17.8%, FLOW +17.1%, NWRE +16.8%, HUM +16.4%, SPIL +15.8%, WRNC +15.6%, OSIP +14.8%, ELGX +14.7%, REGN +14.1%, PRLS +14.0%, BCRX +13.8%, CEPH +13.6%, RACK +13.6%.

15:08 Point Losers List

Issues posting the largest losses on a point basis include: BOL -6.70, FORD -4.52, ABS -2.60, BMHC -1.63, JOYG -1.52, OSTK -1.33, GOOG -1.30, HAUP -1.25, APC -1.20, RIMM -1.19.

15:06 Point Gainers List

Stocks pacing the way on a point basis include: CEPH +4.45, APSG +4.39, CME +3.29, PGNX +2.63, ACS +2.58, PAY +2.52, BIDU +2.33, CERN +2.31, STAA +2.22, ASMI +2.19, KSS +2.00, UARM +1.86, SHLD +1.83, AGIX +1.55, NVL +1.55, CTHR +1.49, SNDK +1.47.

10:23 - SNDK
today's low tested the value of the hourly PSAR, which has been on a buy for a while. Today's high so far tested the 62.55 recent high visible on the daily chart:

new all-time highs...many of the airlines are moving up
new high today
new 52-wk high for second consecutive day
note current price now at gap resistance
$59.12 is the 2005 high.
about 20 cents below the all-time high reached in the IPO days
new highs
routinely making new 52-wk highs, note the PnF for resistance levels
new all-time highs
cup and handle breakout this week
new highs
  new highs
testing high
continues this week's move up.
testing the downtrend line on the PnF chart


10:08 Homebuilders TOL, RYL, MTH, LEN, KBH, PHM, BZH trading at session lows following Home data

Reuters is reporting that Nov single family home sales was the biggest decline since Jan 1994.

09:56 BMD Birch Mountain opens Muskeg Valley Quarry (7.66 +0.32)

Co announces the opening of its Muskeg Valley Quarry located near Fort McMurray, Alberta, in the heart of Alberta's oil sands region. "I am pleased to report that we have met our goals for 2005 and are looking forward to ramping up our MVQ aggregate operations in 2006",


Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

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