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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
Could very well be that we're at an important turning point.

Stay tuned.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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Reply with quote  #2 
I agree Fib. Quite a bit of selloff happened in euro and aussie dollar - time to turn.

I presume you do not expect gold to go much lower then, right?

Best,
Greenie

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
Quote:
I presume you do not expect gold to go much lower then, right?

Indications are that gold continues to be in a continuing triangle that should be all said and done sometime in September. During the time between now and then, the Dollar should start moving lower in what should be the first leg of a minor third wave down, bounce higher into this same September period while gold compresses into its apex, and then move towards the 69 level with gold breaking out of the triangle in what should be its final run to the upside.

All in a perfect Elliott Wave related world, of course.

Watching the price of silver, and its related products, should help in the area of timing.

I hope to present an updated Elliott gold count sometime this weekend.

Fib


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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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kamakaze

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Reply with quote  #4 
Fib:
Due in large part to your discourse here I have avoided my usual fate, and have actually had a nice increase in my gold mutual fund.
I note that the $HUI is smak on the bottom of a declining Hurst style channel and that it's 51 weeks from the previous low of bottoms formed by this channel. This 51 week period is made up of a 18 wk and a 19 wk and currently a 14 week set if cycles, the last 3 weeks are straight down, which L@@ks like most cycles finishing the downside, i.e. the capitulation phenom -

Does a 51 week cycle "fit" any known $HUI behavior?
Certainly even if there is a bottom here the dang thing could meander sideways for 6-8 weeks, fitting your Sept forecast, and unless and until the channel actually turns up, it's just a rally, tho the channel would allow a real nice move.

Since my IRA mutual fund is responsive, I'd. of course, like to ride any significant rally, so I'm scrounging for thoughts for use now.

I eagerly await your comments hoping you have time to share.
Thx,
Mike


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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #5 
Quote:
Does a 51 week cycle "fit" any known $HUI behavior?

Certainly even if there is a bottom here the dang thing could meander sideways for 6-8 weeks, fitting your Sept forecast, and unless and until the channel actually turns up, it's just a rally, tho the channel would allow a real nice move.

Hi Mike

Well, after this past weeks trading in gold (and the dollar), the triangle forecast now has a very low probability of playing out - unless - gold performs a full stop and reverses strongly on Monday (which might happen with the current geopolitical goings on).

Looking back on the last three weeks, our first clue that something might be suspect with the preferred Elliott gold count was with the breakdown in the breadth data (especially in the XAU ), and then having the US Dollar move above Fibonacci pattern resistance as it did this week, gave a very strong indication that something different might be going on that needs our immediate attention.

Now, with that said, the PM stocks are as "oversold" as we've seen them in quite some time, so some sort of reflex rally is indicated near term. Whether this anticipated turn is related to the cycle you've indicated here or not will fully depend on how vigorous this reflex shows, and how quickly gold itself is able to move back above it's 200 day EMA in the process.

For now, I would be on high alert just in case this same cycle hasn't completed it's nesting process, and this is still very much possible given that IF gold is in a fourth wave as the longer term pattern suggests, the .382 retracement level still lies some $50 to $75 lower than current price levels.

We'll just have to wait and see how it all plays out, but breadth should lead the way, as it always does.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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kamakaze

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Reply with quote  #6 
Fib,
Thanks for your comments!
Should these post be on the gold thread?
I'm wondering if anyone has evidence of dominant cyclic behavior on the the $HUI or the XAU?
I find that cycles and Elliott often compatible and thinking maybe cycles might help identify the turning point in the 4th wave, I'd hoped to start a cycle discussion with my 51 week comment. An observation of the HUI chart appears to demonstrate an approximate 12 month cycle in prices.
I one allows that cycle duration is also cyclic, the observed "annual" cycle expanding and contracting would be normal, the point being here we are 51 weeks since the last observable bottom, looking for potential 4th wave bottoming process .....
Any thoughts out there?
Mike


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