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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
It's time, once again, to start a new thread on this subject.

You can review the previous thread on this subject by clicking http://tinyurl.com/auuv9e

**********************************
With prices moving above their .618 retracement level last Monday, this left no doubt that the ongoing count needed to be reviewed as to its validity. Based then on the pattern structure, and in particular the lack of a clean 5 waves down from the January highs, proposed below is the preferred labeling in which I believe has the "best fit" to the current degree of trend given the technical, sentiment, and fundamental circumstances.

Besides providing a cleaner impulsive count from the 2007 highs, a fourth wave triangle of Intermediate degree would also allow for a final move to lower lows later on this year to fulfill other technical "obligations" that were missing earlier this month.

If this count is to remain valid, wave "C" of this 4th wave triangle should have a great deal of problems moving above the 840 level (836 is Fibonacci resistance), and it should have no business whatsoever moving above 875 (the late January highs), both on a closing basis.

In the fullness of time.

Fib






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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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johneeboy3

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Reply with quote  #2 
Dave,

Time my prove my post to be the height of foolishness, but I must say I'm glad to see you're not counting a complete 5 wave decline into the 666 low as EWI and others have done. I know impulses can be compressed in time during fifth waves of this degree, but in all honesty I'd rather discount Elliott Waves as having any applicability at all in that decline than try to squeeze a five-wave decline into what clearly will never be five waves.

Anecdotally, the triangle count you present certainly would fool a large number of elliott wavers and others at the moment, and cause 'max pain' to traders.

I also see heavy long-term horizontal resistance on the weeklies and dailies around 850, plus multiple overhead trendline resistances.

Regards,

John

 

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gelfgelf

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Reply with quote  #3 
Hi Dave,

i have been working off of this ending diagonal.  The attached chart shows that the larger wave 3 has not occurred yet.  what are your thoughts of this count.  seems to me, everything has been corrective since October.  i have us finished or finishing the wave 4 of the ED.  then heading to 5 of the ED.  Thoughts?

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fib_1618

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Quote:
I know impulses can be compressed in time during fifth waves of this degree...try(ing) to squeeze a five-wave decline into what clearly will never be five waves.

Hi John

I'm also having a great amount of trouble counting 5 down into the March lows as well, and with the various (non)confirming circumstances mentioned above, the expanding triangle seemed to be the best fit given the price structure and psychology of the last 4 months.

Definition wise:

"
B" waves are sucker plays where the market is not in sync - and usually is news related in one way or the other. In the case of equities, one will see inconsistencies between one index and the other either in price or the internals that accompany such a move. ''B'' waves can make new price extremes than the orthodox price termination point of the previous 5 wave structure or only partially retrace the ''A'' wave move based on how much emotion accompanies such a pattern. If something doesn't look or feel right about a price pattern, it's more than likely a ''B'' wave.


This then would help explain such oddities that you mentioned at the end of the last thread, and where everything we note is valuable information in our effort to postulate probable direction.

Quote:
The attached chart shows that the larger wave 3 has not occurred yet.  what are your thoughts of this count.

Hi Dave

Your ending diagonal idea would certainly help explain the lack of impulsive fluidity as we moved into the November lows, and I too have this idea on the back burner as an option. What eventually pushed me towards the simpler count idea, however, was last Friday's declaration from the Wall Street Journal that a "Start of (a) Bull Market" began with the March lows. Statements like this are usually found in bearish "C" wave triangles where they act as corrective third waves, while in the ending diagonal, one would more than likely find such statements during wave 2 (which, thinking about it again, did indeed happen...but came from the media's lead up to the inauguration and the hope of change).

Be that as it may, the one thing we do know is that we'll have a better grasp of things between these two ideas sooner rather than later, with both suggesting lower price lows in the next two months before any intermediate term advance can finally begin.

Thanks for the input gents...it's very much appreciated.

Fib



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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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