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geosing

TW Member
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Posts: 356
Reply with quote  #1 
Conditions are there for a Mark Fisher TRT (Trend Reversal Trade). Gap down after a sharp downtrend.

Initial buying takes the market up through the opening range and trades higher for at least double the opening range period. Then it fizzles out and sells off. Selling fizzles and market goes up to the opening range again. This is a buy. Exit if market does not immediately take off higher. Risk is to second, preferably higher low of the day.

A day trade, but could be a short term bottom for swing trade. It will be emotional session so discipline is required to trade today. Be careful out there.

Geo
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geosing

TW Member
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Posts: 356
Reply with quote  #2 
200 point swings in minutes in the overnight session. wow.

Geo


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geosing

TW Member
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Posts: 356
Reply with quote  #3 
Smaller time frame TRT is a no go - due to the first hour jam job. On 27' time frame, which is the largest I use for day trading, the set up is still valid. However OR low  is 11614. So until YM trades below - around 11580 - no TRT. Plenty of other opportunities though. I am scalping long with 90 point stops (3 boxes)!!!

Breadth steadily improving, so squeeze may be the name of the game.

Geo
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geosing

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Reply with quote  #4 
No TRT in any time frame.

Geo
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kaiser_soze

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Reply with quote  #5 

Hi Geo,

I use Mark Fisher's methods in my trading.  It is nice to see somebody else at TW use his methods.  Yes, I am keeping an eye on the TRT.

But I am also keeping a macro ACD count.  On the QQQQs, the macro ACD count is at -21, which is a ridiculous level.  I mean -9 for two days is supposed to signal a crash like event (which has happened btw).  I am not even sure how to interpret a -21.

IF we do bottom today or tomorrow, the ACD count will have to rapidly reverse from its extreme negative levels. The best way for that to happen is to have an "A" down followed by a "C" up to create +4 points.  Also today onward, all offsets are 0 and negative, which means that additional point boost.

Yesterday's low on the Qs was 42.73.  Qs look to open 43 ish.  Might make an A down to test yesterdays low and then sharply reverse to make a C up later in the day.  Just one possible scenario.

KS.
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geosing

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Posts: 356
Reply with quote  #6 

Hello KS,

MacroACD can get up there in the 20's ... but normally extreme at those levels and should start dropping off. Theoretically you hold the position signalled by -9 level till the 30 day either resets or you lock in profits around the -9 level, as the numbers start coming off. I guess you just stay short.

Tuesday's gap down had to be considered a MAH trade opportunity for sure.
Gave me confidence in my long trades.

What period do you use for OR for the QQQQ's? I only casually monitor the MacroACD Numbers for the YM, as I never hold positions overnight.

It appears the opposite to your suggestion is happening.  A Up and then moving towards C Down - at least looking at NQ. ES and YM are staying above OR so far after the A Up.

Geo



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kaiser_soze

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Reply with quote  #7 

Textbook !!

Failed A up followed by A down and then a C up.  +4 points.  Since the last offset was zero, our macro count is now at -17.  Due to the highly oversold condition of the market, I wouldnt be surprised if we got another +4.  One possible scenario : Gap up tomorrow; A down to fill the gap and then C up to close higher.

Also GEO, I use 0.22 on the QQQQs for OR




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