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mojave

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Posts: 53
Reply with quote  #1 
We're all aware of Zweig Breadth Thrusts. Turns out there are many other 'methods to the madness' I see, as I notice Arthur Hill and Ned Davis Research and others present 'Thrust Signals' occasionally, measured in various ways.

Are Zweig's signalling here?

1.png

2.png

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mojave

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Reply with quote  #2 
Arthur Hill has offered various methods to measure 'thrust'.

One method he wrote about in 2010 was simply $NYMO / $NAMO moving from -50 to +50 in a 'single motion'... ala late March 2020: Did $NAMO manage it, and was it 'good enough'?

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mojave

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Reply with quote  #3 
Finally, I notice Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research tweeted this chart, showing 'Thrusts' when
"90% of stocks cross-back-above their 50SMA, after falling to at least 75% in between"

[From https://twitter.com/edclissold/status/1265639120937857025 ]


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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #4 
The Zweig Breadth Thrust is based on the concept of how quickly the NYSE's advance/decline ratio numbers go from poor to great in a compressed time period. Marty's original arithmetic was based on an exponential moving average ratio of advancing issues, but there are those who also use a simple moving average as well. Starting point for "the count of days" begins once the percentage ratio moves below and then moves up and through the 40% level with the objective of reaching 62% within a 10 day trading period.

Based on this then, the first chart is using the EMA quotient, and though it did generate a signal on the 10th day (9th day if we drop the May 25th holiday), the problem here is that the May 13th bottom was exactly at 40% and NOT below it. The SMA quotient did trigger a buy signal on the 28th if we don't count holiday May 25th here in the states, but how reliable of a signal has it been using the SMA? In the long history of this indicator, its been pretty much hit and miss.

Either way, only in the fullness of time will we know for sure.

Fib

[emathrust052920] 

[smathrust052920] 


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mojave

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Reply with quote  #5 
Thanks for your comments.

As mentioned, I've seen various "thrust" methodologies offered here & there - all variations on a theme. 

After our speed-record decline, followed by a speed-record advance off that bottom, It's tempting to say, "gee, I guess it's different this time!"

But what does it all mean going forward?

I never know, and I try to stay 'in the moment' using the tools & education you've provided in these forums over the years.

Thanks for that!
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