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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #1 
I am not usually a big fan of surveys for guaging trader sentiment due to the nature of polls...  I prefer the money-on-the-table type sentiment tools.

However, the Traders Talk bull-bear polls are starting to show a definite bearish bias here.  The raw data making up the following charts is courtesy of Mark Young's Traders Talk site, and at one time at least, he told me (in an e-mail) I could use this data on other sites.

The first chart is simply a 5 day moving average of the percentage of bulls for those pollees who commit to being bullish or bearish for each day, bulls/(bulls+bears).  Over the 3.5 years I have been jotting this data down, the bulls are currently as lonely as they have ever been.



Mark's Traders Talk position poll is exhibiting a similar bias to the ursine side of the ledger.  This indicator is derived by counting the partially/fully long traders as bullish and the partially/fully short traders as bearish.  A five day moving average is calculated for each group, and the blue curve in the next chart represents the bull position 5 day MA minus the bear position 5 day MA.

This indicator was bit more extreme than it currently is in September 2006, and is closing in on that extreme.



The Trader Talk polls are not always a fade in the very short term, but by examining other instances over the past few years when the bearish slant was this one-sided, being short was not a huge money maker over the ensuing couple weeks.... of course, this time could be different.

FWIW

Randy
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mss

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Reply with quote  #2 
Nice charts, and confirms my thoughts also.
Nothing looking "bearish" in this chart. Might/could get a short term consolidation, 1490??, but nothing IT or LT that I can see yet.


mss
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kamakaze

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Reply with quote  #3 
INTERESTING BOP CHART!
Oddly, in reference to your comment, the BOP appears on the chart to be at the upper level of it's oscillation with a hook, which, one could infer that it's unlikely to continue higher than ever and in fact that the next move could be heading toward the lower range boundary.
So, looking at this BOP chart, what suggests to you that this BOP will continue to head up overall?
thx,
Mike


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mss

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Reply with quote  #4 
Hi Mike,
Sorry in being so late in responding. Below are two charts of longer time frame and one with 144sma BOP which has a very steep rise suggesting more rise in the index. We can and should get a correction/consolidation for the ST but based on history a turn down will be needed for IT or LT slide. Of course anything can and might happen.





Hope this answers your question, comments and questions are always welcome.
I will try to post another chart this weekend.

mss
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kamakaze

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Reply with quote  #5 
Thanks!
still looks like it could be "range bound" on the orange chart....
not a bear, just a nervous "hoping it goes up" dabbler
mike

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