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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
As of 8/8/11 - plus I added some downside Fibonacci targets as a guideline.

I've also noted the SOB pattern that we talked about in the chat room back in July as a possible harbinger of things to come.

I will update the chart as we move along.

Fib





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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #2 
As of 8/9/11:

Closing low for wave (iii) = 1119.46 (Monday - see chart targets)

Intraday Low for wave (iii) = 1101.54 (Tuesday - see chart targets)

Wave "w" of (iv) upside objective (irregular flat) = 1172.69 - closed at 1172.53 (Tuesday)

Wave "x" of (iv) in progress with a downside objective of 1074.43

Wave "y" of (iv) upside objective = 1189.30

.382 retracement of entire wave (iii) structure = 1198.67 (average)

All in a perfect Elliott world, of course!

Fib



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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
As of 8/11/11:

With today's rally, we have now met the minimum requirements of a 4th wave flat formation during a crash sequence having retraced .236 times the length of wave (iii) on a closing basis.

Although one may allow for additional continued choppy behavior in here, wave (v) down can start at any time...as soon as tomorrow.

For informational purposes - .236 retracement = 1172.69; .382 retracement = 1205.62 both on a closing basis, cash.

Flexibility and discipline should continue to remain a top priority.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #4 
As of 8/12/11:

I've now included a rising bottoms line at the 1120 level which, if violated, would confirm wave (v) in progress on a structural basis.

Fib



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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #5 
As of 8/18/11:

Watch breadth of market plurality for a 5th wave confirmation, but at 72/2902, it's not indicative of another correctional wave.

I've included the actual closing lows for both wave iii and wave iv next to their Fibonacci targets...not bad.

Figure the 5th wave target around 1060 cash...we'll see how things unwind.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #6 
As of the close of 8/19/11:

The Elliott count for the SPX is updated below with the most likely Fibonacci targets for wave (v) on a closing basis...all of which are within 5% of the lows seen with the April-August 2010 correction. As chat subscribers know the downside price objective given by the NYSE breadth McClellan Oscillator last month was for a challenge of these same correctional lows from last summer.

Also of an interesting note, the top to bottom mid point of last summer's correction comes out to 1119.93 on a closing cash basis...pretty much where the crash found its support earlier this month.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #7 
As of 8/25/11:

Based on the internals, it would appear that we're unwinding in a 5th wave extension to the downside...now in wave [3] of (v).

Again, a break of 1120 cash would be confirmation of this ongoing wave (v) idea.

Fib






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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #8 
As of 8/29/11:

The market decided to blow out the preferred bearish count on several levels with Friday's hard reversal, and now the best chance for the bears is that we have completed a 4th wave Elliott flat about a point away from the 4th wave of one lesser degree noted on the chart in early August.

Breadth momentum is indicating that any downside price targets beyond the summer lows of last year are now a very low probability, and if this bearish count remains intact, that a tradable low is now probable if the 5th wave targets indicated on the chart are met. Based on the guidelines of Elliott, however, any further price strength above the 1212 level would then indicate a low of some kind was established at the 1120 cash level.




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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doc

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Reply with quote  #9 
Well we did trade above 1212 for two days up to 1220 close and 2 spikes intraday to 1230 that were both promptly rejected.

Based on your last post, this would raise the possibility that we had a truncated 5th and a tradable bottom at 1120.

The hard down moves on Thurs and Friday however brings up the interesting question of if the 4th wave was a bit extended and we are indeed entering the elusive 5th wave down. We did appear to complete a AB=CD on an intraday basis almost exactly! 106.93 points up on the (a) of (iv) and 109.62 points up on the (c) of (iv). So was that just a simple abc 4th wave up and now the 5th down?

Doc
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #10 
Quote:
So was that just a simple abc 4th wave up and now the 5th down?

As long as there isn't overlap with the bottom of wave 2, yes, wave 4 may had been extended as an automobile crash can create a more severe whiplash the faster the car is going.

However, the guidelines in the "Blue Book" make it quite clear that the travel area any 4th wave is within the preceding fourth wave of one lesser degree. So based on the guideline provided, and given the way the McClellan Oscillator was able to directly challenge the early July highs which isn't a "usual and customary" characteristic of a simple 4th wave structure, last weeks "overthrow" above the 1211.14 level now opens the door to the probability of an "alternate (preferred) count" to better fit the psychology of the pattern.

So with that in mind, I have now adjusted the decline from July to the August 9th bottom to that of a (c) of c of (C) affair which would have the power to create an elongated crash type event. The (X) wave shown may or may not be completed given the recent cover short signal of the BETS indicator, but it would:

...embrace the volatility since the August 9th low
 
...allow for the recent high MCO numbers that resulted
 
...provide a way for the downside price objective given by the McClellan Oscillator back in late July to be reached between mid September and early November (per the McClellan Summation Index)

...and above all else, compliment the corrective Elliott price structure over the last 3 weeks as a bridge (a pause point) within a larger and highly complex price structure that's being pulled on one end by high liquidity levels, by panic of the unknown on the other, and by many who have been trying to time their put buying based on what appeared to be a simple 3 of 3 crash event.

We'll see how it goes, but in the meantime, let breadth of market continue to be your ultimate guide to what is likely to happen next.

Fib





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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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doc

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Reply with quote  #11 
Sorry for the silly question, but what is the expected move after the (w,x,y) of X is completed. I suppose that a "Y" wave occurs but what is the characteristic and rules that govern this next wave after the X wave is done.
TIA
Doc
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #12 
Quote:
what is the characteristic and rules that govern this next wave after the X wave is done.

An Elliott X wave is just a bridge between two corrective waves labeled A-B-C. So the expectation from the completion of X is another A-B-C pattern to complete the larger (and more elaborate) A-B-C-X-A-B-C structure.

Elliott labeling can be quite complex all depending on how the structure(s) eventually unwind, and because of this, why many believe that the methodology provides very little in the way of trading merit. For a bit more clarity on the current count, the bigger concept here is that we impulse higher (1-2-3-4-5) and counter trend lower (A-B-C). Anything labeled A-B-C would then be a counter trend label to the larger impulse, while W-X-Y labeling would be counter trend movements within the larger counter trend. Confused? Good...you're not alone.

Anyway, as far as price targets for the second A-B-C, you can either have equality with the first correctional structure or minimally .618 times the distance between the high and low point of the first A-B-C. So, if we topped out at 1219 last week, the downside target for an equality retracement would come in at 975, and interestingly enough, a .618 retracement would come in at 1068 cash, closing basis...pretty much the average objective of the 5th wave targets previously noted in this thread. Want more? How about since the MCO has given us a downside target of the lows of last summer to finish off this correction, the average between these two downside objectives is 1021.50. The closing lows from last summer? 1022.58.

Cue suspenseful music.

Fib

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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doc

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Reply with quote  #13 
Thanks Fib. Glad I asked. Turn up the volume on the suspenseful music another notch. The 80wk FLD cross has given a downside projection of 1010 for the 4.5yr low due in the end of the year. I was also allowing for an overshoot down to 950 level. ES bottomed at 1077 afterhours during the 20wk low in Aug = 1080 on the cash. I frankly don't see 1068 holding it as far as the low for the 80wk low. Nice to see two different methods lining up.
Doc
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #14 
How about...the second wave A stops around 1068, and the second wave C meets both your 1010 and/or my 975?

I have forgotten...what is the projected time period for the 80 week low?

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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gman

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Reply with quote  #15 
Dave,

Do you think we are still doing time within the (X) wave, or, with todays action, does it currently appear that we are beginning the next (A) wave down?

--John
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #16 
Quote:
Do you think we are still doing time within the (X) wave, or, with today's action, does it currently appear that we are beginning the next (A) wave down?

The best answer to your question is maybe as we really won't know for sure until certain levels are broken on the MCO from our chat room discussions this past week. However, structure wise, we're fairly confident that we're dealing with a bear flag...we surmised in yesterday's chat session that the bears were about to regain control based on the positions of the MCSUM's...and the news back drop for a break down here is quite complimentary for a bearish resolution noted from our near term compression points.

Elliott wise, we have a pretty good feel that we didn't just complete a fourth wave, so whether we've completed a X wave, B wave, or something else entirely, is still yet to be determined with any high degree of confidence. However, with today's high TRIN number (5.31) on the NYSE, if the counter trend pattern finished up last week at 1218 as noted, then that would put us in wave 3 of a 5 wave structure to the downside which could be our second A wave. Confirmation of this would be all too clear once we open on Monday morning where the 1120 level should be challenged, if not, all out violated in quick fashion.

What I do want to stress though in all this is that the actual Elliott labeling of where we should be is still wide open to interpretation, but at the same time, we have also eliminated other considerations that many Elliotticians are still holding on to given their analytical simplicity. So it would be far better to continue to let breadth of market plurality be your ultimate guide here, and we'll see if we can firm things up as we approach the various support levels and target price objectives that have been shared within this thread.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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doc

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Reply with quote  #17 
The 80wk cycle is due roughly 15.5 to 16 wks from now. We had our 20wk low early Aug and now the 5wk low due this coming week.

Doc
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #18 
As was the fear from the last update, the 1154 close on 9/9 provided a nice .618 retracement of the previous price range from the 1119 lows of 8/8 to the highs seen at the end of August at 1218 and we now look to be retracing out a more complex correctional structure labeled (X) below. Regardless of the actually labeling, the guidelines of Elliott Wave continue to suggest that these 3 wave pattern structures are correctional in their make up and should be played accordingly.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #19 
Updated count as of 9/30/11 showing the corrective (X) wave complete with September 16th's quadruple witching and confirmed with the break to new intraday lows on September 22nd. If this remains the valid count, we should move to new closing lows the early part of next week.

Fib





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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #20 
Well, we got the new closing lows on Monday, and it looks like wave (A) is now complete - now in wave (B). Under this ongoing count idea, it would appear that the time table completion of this pattern will come the week of October 17th and maybe into OPEX on the 21st.

Fib





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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #21 
The updated corrective Elliott Wave count for the S&P 500 is shown below.

As its continued basis for guidance I've used the strength of short term money flow as measured by the McClellan Oscillator; the recent breakout of the declining tops line of the NYAD line itself; the strong plurality of volume accompanying the October 4th reversal and structural advance; a 8 day period on the RSI; a 13, 21, 8 setting on the Hist MACD indicator; and the recent record put buying and "Occupy" protests rounding out the sentiment levels of the pattern itself.

Based then on this complimentary and integral evidence that is Elliott, it looks as though we can now call this correction complete based on the guidelines and rules of this specific methodology.

Please note that this will be the last post in this thread. I hope you found this ongoing exercise productive if not informative.

Other count ideas are always welcomed and encouraged.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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