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mss

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Reply with quote  #1 
For those reading my posts for the first time. I am not a day trader, I am a position trader and deal in ETFs and stocks 95% of the time. My trades may last a day or a year. I will swing trade at times, just for fun.

This chart I use to determine short term trend changes that might effect my positions.
Current suggestion is a shallow bounce with little strength. Momentum is weak and RSI is not heavily oversold.



This chart supports the shallow bounce and indicates how much of a bounce.



This chart is one of several I use to keep a good feel on the main trend. It also gives me a way to estimate the next potential turn. The first minor stop was 805, not shown, but the next is suggested at 700-695.



There are several ways to measure money flow and all are useful. I tend to stay with price momentum most of the time, because price is always right, even if we like it or not.

Please understand, I am not always right, nor am I always wrong. Sometimes I just get lucky and sometimes I don't.
The market can change at a seconds notice, so all predictions are good only at the time made.

Comments and questions always welcome.
mss


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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #2 
Quote:
Please understand, I am not always right, nor am I always wrong. Sometimes I just get lucky and sometimes I don't.
The market can change at a seconds notice, so all predictions are good only at the time made.

Quite a disclaimer...are you sure you're in the right business??

Thanks for the post.

Fib


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mss

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Reply with quote  #3 
Dave, I ask every day, "am I in the wrong business" and every day I answer, "maybe/maybe not"

I was asked to post the live versions of the above charts.
I posted them and two more with brief thoughts as to what they indicate.

LINK TO 5 CHARTS SWING WAVE BOARD

Questions and comments welcome.
mss

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mss

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Reply with quote  #4 
A short week like this past one tends to shade the data so a picture of what happened or might happen is not clear. However, there is a strong suggestion that the 1005 SPX, I thought I foresaw as a near term high, may not now be reachable. A better guess might exist after Tuesday.
mss

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relax

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Reply with quote  #5 

Keep us updated ;-)

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mss

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Reply with quote  #6 
I have added a new chart of the NYA to the link which will update. It appears that NYA is range bound 5250 -5750 weekly and until up get a break up/down only short term trading is doable. JMO
mss

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #7 
Dec 11 intraday

what one of "mss" charts now looks like intraday (taken from his chart link which updates live)



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #8 
Dec 11 close


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #9 
Dec 12 intraday

chart update at new high of day so far that just filled the "gap-down" below yesterday's close



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #10 
Jan 2nd closing basis update of chart prepared by "mss"


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mss

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Reply with quote  #11 
This will be the last post on this thread by me as I will start a new one later today. "fib" will move this thread at the end of January to the archive section so any additions to this should keep that in mind.
The weekly chart below is suggesting that we have a "bullish trend" in progress, but NOT a Bull market, we are still in a Bear. Note the TREND LINE congestion in the "square" and this will not easily be broken.
The target ranges are somewhat confusing at present as the FED's action is playing with the indicators IMO.
Targets are: Top max 1022, most likely upper range 942-982, swing middle 839-879, swing lows 776-736. Key closing point is 803.34.DO NOT rule out a mini crash to 705-695 at some point in the next several weeks.

Comments welcome, mss




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hiker

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Reply with quote  #12 
Jan 7


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #13 
Jan 9


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #14 
Jan 16


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #15 
Jan 20 intraday update of SPX daily chart based on daily closing prices data:

as revised today by the author, "mss" -



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