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hiker

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Reply with quote  #1 
continued from a prior post, and the content here is a deeper analysis to examine  additional price level signals which will be useful in the event of a larger price decline during the November to January time period than some traders are forecasting at this moment -

http://forums.technicalwatch.com/post/SPX-and-NYA-internals-5577914

two versions of the SPX daily chart are displayed below, updated for the November 15, 2011, close:

for the purpose of monitoring future price action vs. the mid-point price level of the August to October/November 15th intraday high to intraday low trading range for this period of time

* once any future price declines break below this mid-point value of a major index, the potential for future upward price action with staying power becomes less probable

chart #1 presents the SPX with the mid-point range value shown as the bold dashed orange line ... and the HGX (housing index) and BKX (banking index) are shown with the SPX price action because it will be difficult for the SPX to mount a sustainable price advance OR decline without these sectors participating to some extent


Attached Images
Name: SPX_daily_with_HGX_and_BKX_-_Nov_15,_2011.png, Views: 496, Size: 70.70 KB



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #2 
November 15, 2011 chart view

chart #2 presents the SPX price action with the mid-point value for the August to October/November 15th trading range for the NYA, COMPQ, NDX, RUT and OEX indices

Attached Images
Name: SPX_daily_-_Nov_15,_2011.png, Views: 496, Size: 80.44 KB



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #3 
November 15, 2011 chart view

chart #3 is the RUT to OEX daily ratio I have posted at this board before to present the "risk-on" OR "risk-off" evaluation metric ...

I am including it here so the data contained in these three charts can be viewed together

Attached Images
Name: RUT_to_OEX_daily_ratio_-_Nov_15,_2011.png, Views: 496, Size: 70.73 KB



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #4 
November 18, 2011 chart updates 

Summary:

Friday's November 18th closing price vs. the midpoint price level for the August to November high-low trading range (the mid-point of the trading range is the solid blue horizontal line shown on each index and the gold dashed horizontal line shown on the SPX portion of the chart below):

% distance Friday's close is above or below the midpoint / mid-point value / Friday's close -

SPX - 2.2% above midpoint / 1190 / 1215.65

NYA - 0.2% below midpoint / 7297 / 7282.47

COMPQ - 1.3% above midpoint / 2538 / 2572.50

NDX - 1.3% above midpoint / 2224 / 2253.95

RUT - 2.1% above midpoint / 705 / 719.42

OEX - 1.8% above midpoint / 538 / 547.80

* the future price location relative to the midpoint of the August to November trading range will be instructive to traders ... bearish confirmation requires a downside break of the midpoint price range for all these indices, and until such a price event actually occurs this current pullback can be reliably considered a fake breakdown or partial retracement of the August to November horizontal trading range

Attached Images
Name: SPX,_NYA,_COMPQ,_NDX,_RUT,_OEX_daily_-_mid-point_values...8,_2011_close.png, Views: 417, Size: 79.51 KB



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #5 
continued November 18, 2011 chart update -

Summary for chart #2:

* the RUT to OEX daily ratio looks OK in its chart configuration because a pattern of higher lows for this ratio continues for the October to November period... no additional bearish confirmation signals have resulted from this week's price action in spite of the fact the risk-on signal remains unconfirmed by this chart ... the second chart observation is this ratio is 1.8% above the slightly rising 50-day simple moving average

* RUT price action remains above the $709.58 to $689.30 potential horizontal support zone 

$709.58 horizontal has proven itself:

1. as resistance during six price events since May, 2010

2. as support during three price events since late October, 2011

since the actual price action has proven the $709.58 horizontal value to be actionable, it is now considered prior failed resistance and is now proven support until a future price decline firmly violates it to the downside

* ten major Sector ETF's closed above their 50-day simple moving average on Friday, and this moving average has not seen a serious downside violation for the SPX or for these ten major Sector ETF's  since the advance back above the moving average in October - charts at the link below -

Attached Images
Name: RUT_to_OEX_daily_ratio_-_Nov_18,_2011_close.png, Views: 415, Size: 69.83 KB



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #6 
an additional chart #3 updated for November 18, 2011:

chart of the XLI weekly price action vs. its 89-week ema compared to the SPX weekly closes vs. the 89-week ema: 

* the comparison of the actual price location relative to the 89-week ema for both XLI and SPX will be highly instructive and useful to a trader at this time and in the future 

(note: XLI is the Industrials sector, in which market participants discount their expectations for the future global economic conditions...so, the current absence of a serious breakdown now is important information for vigilant traders

XLI contains a large number of components, and GE is the largest holding within XLI in terms of % of total XLI assets

Attached Images
Name: XLI_weekly_with_SPX_-_Nov_18,_2011.png, Views: 413, Size: 73.51 KB



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Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

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