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hiker

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Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #1 
November 11, 2011 chart updates

two charts are posted separately in the start for this thread

chart #1 is the SPX daily closes with SPX internals

chart #2 in the separate post is the NYAD daily chart, with NYA internals

* I am going to post chart updates here at least once weekly for these two charts

summary of actionable data points:

1. SPX and NYA internals:

SPX and NYA require a recapture of the 55% level for the percent of components residing above their 200-day moving averages ... in order to confirm a bullish trading bias ... until this occurs these internals can be reliably considered indecisive based on the long-term chart history for this metric when paired as a data set with the percentage level of components above their 50-day moving average

2. the most simple NYA price levels for trade bias confirmation:

NYA -  $7311 is the must-hold price level for the bullish case to continue

NYA - the $7771 to $7950 horizontal zone requires recapture at a minimum or this current price action is not likely to be a lasting advance with staying power



Attached Images
Name: SPX_daily_close_-_Nov_11,_2011_close.png, Views: 105, Size: 97.92 KB



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Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

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hiker

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Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #2 
November 11, 2011  update for chart #2

chart #2 is the plot of the 8-day sma for the daily NYAD, with the cumulative NYAD and other NYA internals shown in other sections of the chart

1. NYA internals:

NYA components require a recapture of the 55% level for the percent of components residing above their 200-day moving averages ... in order to confirm a bullish trading bias ... until this occurs these internals can be reliably considered indecisive based on the long-term chart history for this metric when paired with the percentage level of components above their 50-day moving average

2. the most simple NYA price levels for trade bias confirmation:

NYA -  $7311 is the must-hold price level for the bullish case to continue

NYA - the $7771 to $7950 horizontal zone requires recapture at a minimum or this current price action is not likely to be a lasting advance with staying power

Attached Images
Name: NYAD_daily,_8-day_sma_-_Nov_11,_2011.png, Views: 105, Size: 129.72 KB



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Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

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hiker

TW Member
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Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #3 
November 11 chart update for chart #3

chart #3 is the NYA monthly closes since 2002 shown in histogram format

* notice the correlation of:

1. the NYA price action above or below the 5-month simple moving average (shown in solid red)

 with

2. a status above or below the 55% level for the NYA and SPX components' 200-day moving average (SPXA200R and NYA200R shown in the lower portion of this chart)

the Ned Davis Research item noted below is contained in the public domain

* According to a study dating back to 1985 by Ned Davis Research, when more than 70% of stocks are above their 50 day moving average and over 55% of stocks are above their 200 day moving average, The Ned Davis Global Equity Composite has increased at a rate of +22% per annum. When fewer than 40% of stocks are above their 50 day moving average and fewer than 55% of stocks are above their 200 day moving average, the Ned Davis Global Equity Composite has declined at a rate of -18% per annum. Under mixed conditions, the Composite performance has been near average.



Attached Images
Name: NYA_monthly_closes_since_2002_-_Nov_11,_2011.png, Views: 104, Size: 93.84 KB



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Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

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hiker

TW Member
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Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #4 
November 17, 2011 - chart updates for charts #1, #2 and #3 are shown below in separate posts,
and are posted with no comment since the chart data is evident and can be readily evaluated by the viewer

1. chart #1 - is the SPX daily closes chart in histogram format with SPX internals, and selected NYSE internals : 

both the SPX and NYA require a recapture of the 55% level for the percent of components residing above their 200-day moving averages  ... in order to confirm a bullish trading bias ... until this occurs these internals can be reliably considered indecisive based on the long-term chart history for this metric when paired as a data set with the percentage level of components above their 50-day moving average

Attached Images
Name: SPX_daily_closes_in_histo_-_Nov_17,_2011.png, Views: 70, Size: 104.41 KB



__________________

Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

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hiker

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #5 
November 17, 2011 chart update

2. chart #2 - is the plot of the 8-day sma for the daily NYAD (NYSE Advance-Decline breadth), with NYA daily price closes, 
with the cumulative NYAD and with other NYA internals 

*** NYA internals to be used for trade bias confirmation

NYA components require a recapture of the 55% level for the percent of components residing above their 200-day moving averages ... in order to confirm a bullish trading bias ... until this occurs these internals can be reliably considered indecisive based on the long-term chart history for this metric when paired with the percentage level of components above their 50-day moving average 

*** this chart displays the most simple NYA price levels for trade bias confirmation

NYA - $7311 is the must-hold price level for the bullish case to continue 

NYA - the $7771 to $7950 horizontal zone requires recapture at a minimum or this current price action is not likely to be a lasting advance with staying power 


Attached Images
Name: NYAD_daily,_8-day_sma_-_Nov_17,_2011.png, Views: 69, Size: 129.94 KB



__________________

Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

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hiker

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #6 
November 17, 2011 chart update

3. chart #3 - is the NYA monthly closes since 2002 shown in histogram format, with NYA and SPX % of components above their 200-day moving average 

* notice the correlation of: 

1. the NYA price action above or below the 5-month simple moving average (shown in solid red) 

with 

2. a status above or below the 55% level for the NYA and SPX components' 200-day moving average 
(SPXA200R and NYA200R shown in the lower portion of this chart) 

the Ned Davis Research item noted below is contained in the public domain 

* According to a study dating back to 1985 by Ned Davis Research, when more than 70% of stocks are above their 50 day moving average and over 55% of stocks are above their 200 day moving average, The Ned Davis Global Equity Composite has increased at a rate of +22% per annum. When fewer than 40% of stocks are above their 50 day moving average and fewer than 55% of stocks are above their 200 day moving average, the Ned Davis Global Equity Composite has declined at a rate of -18% per annum. Under mixed conditions, the Composite performance has been near average. 

Attached Images
Name: NYA_monthly_closes_since_2002_-_Nov_17,_2011.png, Views: 74, Size: 92.45 KB



__________________

Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

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