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hiker

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Reply with quote  #1 
charts updated for the October 14, 2011 close

Regarding: SPX $1225 - prior horizontal breakout value (daily close basis)

two chart views (second chart in the following post)

Attached Images
Name: SPX_daily_-_Oct_14,_2011.png, Views: 397, Size: 96.41 KB



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #2 
the daily RUT to OEX ratio chart shown below provides evidence regarding the trend
for "risk-on" or "risk-off"

* notice the ratio has not yet confirmed "risk-on"

* notice the SPX $1225 level shown as a horizontal value in the SPX daily closes portion of this chart ... $1225 was a prior breakout value of great importance because $1225 was rejected when tested on the two prior events before the December, 2010 breakout above $1225

Attached Images
Name: RUT_to_OEX_daily_ratio_-_Oct_14,_2011.png, Views: 394, Size: 68.97 KB



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #3 
October 14, 2011

since JPM is an important component of XLF and OEX, the chart below
provides a weekly closes chart view of the SPX with JPM as an overlay in gold color

* notice the SPX weekly RSI-34 vs. its 50 value provides a reliable confirmation for the advancing or declining trend by SPX price action

* SPX $1225 is evident as useful for measuring the trend of weekly price closes

* JPM remains in a confirmed declining trend relative to its distance from the prior  weekly close lows ... all that can be stated with fairness is that it is currently bouncing within a badly broken chart pattern

Attached Images
Name: SPX_weekly_closes_with_JPM_-_Oct_14,_2011.png, Views: 379, Size: 65.30 KB



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #4 
October 14, 2011

BPSPX to VXO daily ratio:

* the chart pattern remains in confirmed breakdown mode as evidenced by the distance of the ratio below its pattern of 2004 to 2011 lows ... the ratio has now bounced to the level near its 89-day ema ... the one fair statement based on this actual chart data is nothing more is currently evident than an oversold bounce, and more upside follow-through will be extremely significant toward confirming something different is taking place

* selected major market averages are plotted vs. their 600-day sma, and it is interesting the NYA advance to/above its 600-day sma is lagging the other indices by a noticeable margin

Attached Images
Name: BPSPX_to_VXO_daily_ratio_-_Oct_14,_2011.png, Views: 376, Size: 126.28 KB



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no_mind

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Reply with quote  #5 
Hiker,
    Thank you so much for the wonderful charts. One question on the Rut/Oex ratio. Could you please tell me at what level you would consider the "risk-on"?   
     In the first chart of the SPX daily, love the tight squeeze between the ema (89) and ema (377), it's even tighter than it was back in Sept. '10.
Best,
Tom

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #6 
hello Tom,

RE: your RUT to OEX daily ratio question:

ANSWER: sustained daily closes above 1.3341 will confirm the "risk-on" chart event, with earlier "warning" signs of the potential confirmation already marked as levels on the chart

consider the ratio data with this daily chart shown below, which makes it readily apparent the RUT has been unable to surpass and remain above the late August and September intraday highs

attached chart is updated for the October 20, 2011 closes

Attached Images
Name: SPX_daily_closes_-_Oct_20,_2011.png, Views: 80, Size: 102.24 KB



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no_mind

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Reply with quote  #7 
hiker,
    Thanks so much for the clarification and the updated charts.
Best,
Tom

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