All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
Turkey

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 122
Reply with quote  #1 
Fib something you said on the TT board really struck a chord with me. Your response to a poster where you state, "It certainly does feel bad," implying of course it can always feel bad but lets look at the facts.

The semis certainly feel awful. That gap down yesterday certainly felt like a breakdown gap. But, a breakdown gap should have gapped below resistance and we are still in the same channel. Now today if this takes on new momentum to the downside I will be the first to call myself wrong but without follow through this could be the bear trap of the season.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p82360829863

Best to you, and thanks for all you do!
0
DickW

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 17
Reply with quote  #2 

Turkey, I had the same thought: sharp and vicious slam makes you want to run the other way. The other issue is what was actually said by the companies that "caused" the decline differs from the bulk of the reporting. Ultimately the market casts the winning vote but this one really needs to be watched carefully for a head fake.

0
Turkey

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 122
Reply with quote  #3 
Dick,

It certainly does seem to either be the end of something or the beginning of something.

You have to place your bets based on the best available facts and then always admit your mistakes. In the end that is all we can do.
0
Turkey

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 122
Reply with quote  #4 
Well it is almost 11:00 and the semis could not build on yesterday's possible breakdown gap. For that to have been a breakdown we would need to see confirmation and it just isn't there.

So, my guess now is to look for a fill of that gap in the coming days. Beyond that I have no idea.
0
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,419
Reply with quote  #5 
I like where this thread is going with this "thinking out loud" posting.

I hope you continue to share your thoughts as things move along.

I'm going to take the liberty of posting the SMH chart, with my default settings, to add some additional technical input that might help you further in possibly seeing something that wasn't quite evident before.

Fib




__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Turkey

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 122
Reply with quote  #6 
I just hopped off with a little profit on my nvda long.

Looking at your chart I wonder about the gap through moving averages and the market looks to be deteriorating just a bit. I do wonder if today's strength is option related nvda is stuck just under max pain which is 32.50. I may re enter on a close above that number but with the weekend coming up I don't need to be a hero.
0
Turkey

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 122
Reply with quote  #7 
Since we are thinking out loud I just wanted to add one thing.

Everyone talks a great deal about sentiment. But to me the most important sentiment is my own. I can read my own feelings better than I can read other peoples feelings. Taking that nvda trade yesterday as posted on TT felt like the most horrible move in the world. Then this morning I started feeling like maybe I am a genius.

So, I fade myself. Heck, I know most of you are smarter than me, I am the best person to fade because I have the best read on my own sentiment.
0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch