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hiker

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Reply with quote  #1 
"The most common retracement rate is 50% of a previous trend. A minimum retracement is 1/3rd and a maximum is 2/3rd of a prior trend."

IF the retracement back Up of the current downtrend becomes MORE than a 2/3rd retracement of the recent swing declines for SPX, NYA and XAU, then we can consider a reversal of the 2008 downtrend may be CONFIRMED.
---------------

updates for Dec 16th just prior to the close, but the closing-basis nos. are not much different -

retracements of the most recent swing declines:

NYA - 68% represented by today's high

SPX - 67% represented by last week's high

XAU - 66% represented by today's high

retracement calcs above are for these swing declines:


SPX swing decline is:

$1,007 to $741

NYA swing decline is:

$6,352 to $4,607


XAU swing decline is:

$153.84 to $63.52                                


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #2 
December 17 intraday chart update

chart below is the 60-minute NYA chart for 2008 showing only two moving averages (price is invisible)

yesterday's price high is marked with the pink H line

it could take some time to turn the 200-period moving average back above the major price horizontal residing at $5,503



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mss

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Reply with quote  #3 
Do we not have a IT bullish cross with the 50/200? RSI looks good and MACD is at "0"now of course I am not day/hourly trading. Just think a pull back on re-trace will not be much.



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #4 
looking at past history, the 200-period moving average turning back Up is what makes a price advance something more than a fake-out. 

you be the judge.


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mss

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Reply with quote  #5 
You have a good point. Boils down to trading/position time frame I guess.
mss

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #6 
Dec 17 close

NYA 60-minute chart, and the  price line (black) has been added

the 200-period moving average turning back Up is what makes a price advance something more than a fake-out



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #7 
Dec 17

the Oct low for the 50-period moving average is marked with blue H line



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #8 
Dec 18

NYA 60-minute chart:

one idea for clues is that the 50-period ema needs to hold this now brief move ABOVE the October low for the 50-period ema which is marked by the H line at $5,600

the 200-period sma continues to point DOWN, for now..and it resides BELOW the $5,503 major price horizontal



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #9 
Dec 19

NYA 60-minute

NYA closed only 2 points lower than Thursday



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