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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
I'm now getting indications that a new flood of money is moving into the marketplace which should provide enough energy for a price trend to develop to the upside. This along with a buy signal from the Trading Index last Friday as it moved above 4.00 strongly suggests that if a 9 month (40 week) cycle is in play it bottomed 2 weeks early with the Dubai scare.

Confirmation of this cyclical occurrence will only come once we see the various MCSUM's take out their mid November high points with good separation of the daily postings.

Be vigilant.

Fib

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

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kean

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Reply with quote  #2 
Fib,

Isn't confirmation the MCO going above its rising tops line, or do we need the additional confirmation by the MCSUMs?

Tim 

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
Quote:
Isn't confirmation the MCO going above its rising tops line, or do we need the additional confirmation by the MCSUMs?

Ideally, a break above the declining tops line on the MCO will more than likely come a day or two before the MCSUM breaks above its November highs. The MCO will serve as a short term confirmation of 4-6 weeks, while the MCSUM will be that of a intermediate term confirmation of 6-12 weeks.

One thing we didn't discuss yesterday was the current compression of the 19 day and 39 day EMA's on many of the cumulative volume charts (refer to last weekends update to see what I'm talking about). Looking at the charts after today, you can see what looks like the beginning of bulls resuming control of the daily intermediate term trend and why I made the post.

Fib


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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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doc

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Reply with quote  #4 
Hi Fib,

In broad terms, what would be highest on your shopping list?
Clearly the largecaps have had relative strength lately and their McSum are the highest. Smallcaps have been the weakest. Do you think the secondary market will outperform going forward to play catchup, esp given gold going nuts suggesting available liquidity, or do you think money flow will still favor the largecaps given the technical data? Thanks

Doc
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #5 
Sorry for the slow reply Doc...busy day.

What I would do is look over the position of the breadth MCSUM's at DP and use these rules of thumb:

Those MCSUM's that are higher than +500 and we'll tend to see greater percentage moves of those individual issues that make up that index on any rally higher, and they will tend to lose a lesser percentage of price decay on any move lower.

Those MCSUM's that are below the +500 level but above +250 are still generally bullish overall which would mean that they are not in a position to where a declining trend in price can take hold, but will rally sharply on any "friendly activity".

Those MCSUM's that are at or near their zero lines will move in concert with the overall flow of money once clarity is known, but not as large of a percentage move as those issues that are part of a +500 MCSUM club.

Those MCSUM's that are in and around the -250 level are technically "oversold" and will react to any positive momentum but will trail the rest because of their lack of potential. On the flip side, these same issues will lead with greater percentage moves on any downside resolution.

That's about as broad as I can make it...I hope it helps in your decision making process.

Fib

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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doc

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Reply with quote  #6 
Thanks Fib. Do you still think the new flood of money is going to come in to lift this market. WE've had a few false starts last week and seem to be caught in a trading range.

Small point change NYMO today, Monday.

Doc
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #7 
Quote:
Do you still think the new flood of money is going to come in to lift this market. We've had a few false starts last week and seem to be caught in a trading range.

What you had on Monday was another test of overhead resistance on many of the breadth MCSUM's along with some MCO's showing compression with a small point change. In this case, the bears needed to hold their positions in this continued zone of indecision and succeeded but not with a lot of confidence. And now we come upon the ideal nesting date of the (anticipated) 9 month cycle which is due this coming Friday as if the market is biding time waiting for this date to come.

Again, the battle continues between buyers and sellers with the total market MCSUM moving horizontally above its zero line keeping the bulls slightly in control of the action. We've also seen that the SML breadth MCO has moved to a higher high over the last week, while Tuesday's failure to move higher was held in check in and around many of the MCO's zero lines seen over at DP.

Whenever the eventual resolution to all this comes, I present below the "famous" trade show indicator that follows the markets response when I have those occasions of going out of town for a prolonged periods of time. Although my next trade show doesn't come until next March (in Las Vegas), I am going on vacation this coming Saturday, so next weeks action could provide the long awaited breakout that many have been waiting for so patiently over the last month.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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doc

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Reply with quote  #8 
Thanks Fib.  But wait just a cotton pickin' minute. On your chart, "vacation" is always coinciding with a change in trend. That means this rally is cooked. We must be forming an IT TOP!

Doc
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #9 
Quote:
On your chart, "vacation" is always coinciding with a change in trend.

I like to look at it as a important moment in the ongoing pattern, Could be up, could be down, could be a resumption of what's gone on before. All depends on the internals at that time. But isn't it amazing how Vegas has this propensity of coinciding with significant turning events(?)...the last five are jaw dropping.

Fib


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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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