All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
luckylee

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 6
Reply with quote  #1 
78 will be broken, imho.

0
mortiz

TW Patron++
Registered:
Posts: 1,054
Reply with quote  #2 
Nice work!

Below is a chart of the USD daily close versus the 10 day SMA of Market Vane's (MV) daily USD bull percentage. Market Vane takes surveys on several equity indices, commodities, and currencies.  This particular series, the USD bull percentage, only goes back to 2002, but it has pretty good batting average for diverging with price at IT bottoms and tops.

As the MV USD bull data suggests (as have you) $78 is not going to hold.  Whether the ultimate support surfaces at $71, we'll see. Suffice it to say, the fundamentals of US government out of control spending does not support a rosy picture for longer term strength of the USD.



FWIW

Randy

0
luckylee

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 6
Reply with quote  #3 
Thank you mortiz. What a whipsaw move today, I'm glad I stay on track and ignore the short term noise.

Attached are: USD/SEK and 2 charts indicating green shoots in other currencies

0
luckylee

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 6
Reply with quote  #4 
I believe this break is now confirmed that it is in 76.58 (76.46 Friday low, ytd low).

We are going to see some sort of panic here.

Individual pairs that I've been watching very closely: AUD/USD and USD/JPY. Since I am a bit afraid of intervention, I very rarely trade USD/JPY. Only AUD/USD and EUR/USD.

On the daily looks like they're overbought and the US dollar is very oversold, but any dip is a buy. Very bearish for US Dollar despite many people calling bottom in the US dollar. Looking at the weekly MACD, the reversal is not in here yet. I have a turn date on Sept. 14th (+/- 1 day) but I don't know if it's a top, bottom, breakout, or breakdown phase.

There's a few gaps in /6C, /6S, /6A and those gaps will be filled shortly.

We will break July 2008 low.

0
luckylee

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 6
Reply with quote  #5 
Covered my USD/CHF shorts and I may want to short again in mid-December. The /DX is still heading to a minimum target of 72 and most likely breaking below July 2008 low.

I have my regrets not going long the Yen (I'm always scared of intervention). What a missed opportunity but oh well. This pair is heading to 80. Still not playing the Yen. I don't like Fujii the bald guy.

Looking at the crosses, it seems NZD/JPY could be building the head in a smaller H&S. Similar pattern to 2007 top.

The dollar could have a brief rebound before mid 2010 but I will sell the rest of my dollar into this rally.
0
luckylee

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 6
Reply with quote  #6 
as expected, here's the dollar short squeeze. will sell into it in a few days.
0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch