All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #1 
Potential big move is setting up. We'll see.



0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #2 
If 44.23 can become support instead of resistance, as of this writting, then the resolution may be to the upside.
0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #3 
Follow up.


0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #4 
Where's the cattle prod?


0
hiker

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #5 
thanks, Johnny....very helpful charts. Today's stall point of the decline was interesting and visible on your chart above.

CMF on the daily is of interest...and the PPO on the weekly is of interest -

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qqqq

price has narrowed the distance from the 50-day sma ....price is closer to the 50 sma than since early August

__________________

Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #6 
Thanks, Hiker. I'm glad and flattered you find them helpful. Thanks for your charts! The indicators are insightful.

Given that charts can vary from vendor to vendor, decided to post this Decision Point chart again. Also, the indexes to tracking ETFs can vary, too. This chart was posted with the warning area of the MCSUM. Now the MCSUM is near the level the last time this index reversed. Will the bears be able to take control and least for a while? Was the first break out from the coil a false one and the second one the real deal. Again, it appears that that at least in this area of the market, it is at a critical juncture, yet with more damage. Will the sentiment get quickly beared up now just to have the bulls surge back in? The greatest damage for a lot of traders would be a sideways, choppy market for a while. Just trying to trade it as it goes.

regards,

Johnny




0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #7 
This poster use to post here, but may need a new password or something. Great charts and analysis.

regards,

Johnny


0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #8 
There are a couple of horizontal lines to maybe keep an eye on for a test in the 43.26 to 43.33 area. The chart from the 19th has one of those lines. On the weekly this area shows up, too. This may be the area for the line in the sand for the Qs/NDX to continue in a sideways formation.
0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #9 
Where's the Qs Santa rally?


0
hiker

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #10 
12/22 intraday

42.97 - covered QQQQ swing shorts here just now...may be early but close enough to major horizontal support for me..let's see

what happens at next support, if reached:

42.67 (43.38-.26 support above failed)



__________________

Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #11 
Hiker,

Nicely done. On the more recent chart that has the lower TL "6," which intersects the horizontal line at 42.82 could be interesting.

The NDX MCO & VMCO both have down thrusts. At these down thrust levels, if in an uptrend, it meant a bottom was or nearly completed, then the uptrend continued. In a downtrend, a bounce was near, but then the downtrend continued.

In 02, 03 and 05 when these down thrusts occurred close to Jan, it marked the initiation of a significant downtrend. (It also happened in Feb 99, but that is later than the time frame of which is the focus). The first quarter tends to be tough sledding for the NDX & Qs. Given the time frame and situation, this index could see a reflex rally next week, but unless there is great internals improvement, the IT trend will most likely be down and rallies to be shorted.

regards,

Johnny

0
Eminimee

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 162
Reply with quote  #12 

Here's the picture on the compq...holding 2378 potentially very bullish.

 


0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #13 
Hi E,

Thanks. That very well could be. As you know, the NASI is approaching 0 from a relatively shallow peak. How it behaves in this area may be telling. A bounce off of the 0 line would not be unlikely. In 06, the COMPQ underperformed relative to the SPX and DOW (see charts on the 1st quarter thread). Whether accumulation occurs as reflected by the NASI at or below the 0 line, and if the market does not completely fall apart, 07 could be an interesting year.

regards,

jmicou

0
hiker

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #14 
Johnny -

seems to me that shorting QQQQ rallies makes sense...at least until QQQQ moves back above failed support near 43.34.

42.50 to 42.67 is the lower side of the trading range to watch....for what price action does on such a test, if any.

I shorted today's rally in the a.m., but not expecting much in the way of range expansion today...we'll see.

---------

not even a 3-box consolidation reversal yet on the PnF chart which remains bullish for now -

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qqqq



__________________

Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #15 
Hiker,

Sold a lot of longs lately. Today bought a little Qs on the pullback. Had an hourly buy yesterday AM and a prelim daily buy this AM. This is just spec. The 50 dema may be a battleground. Don't know. Will not be around the computer much this week, so probably little posting.

The MCSUMs are in another area where they could run it up and go, or rally it a bit and dump it. Probably should sit around in cash built up.
0
hiker

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #16 
Hi Johnny,

thanks for the QQQQ update.

IYR is the ETF long reentry that I have been concentrating on the most....it needs to move back above $83.52-.99 before I consider it more than a price channel trader....we'll see...it could be a good holding if 2007 turns out to be bullish above the recent highs in the averages.



fyi, here is one I have been trading...am now out...have alerts set. PnF chart shows that demand remains in control and higher prices may be ahead...horizontal line represents today's new 52-week high at one level of horizontal resistance, & near trendline resistance -

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?OVEN




__________________

Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #17 
Hiker,

I'm in a snow storm and keep loosing electricity and phone. Anyway, look at a long term NDX (at least to Oct 02) chart with the PVO. You may even want to post it.



0
hiker

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #18 
12/29

thanks for the idea, Johnny.  Happy new year!

this simple view paints the near-term picture -




__________________

Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #19 
Hiker,

The red circles highlight the blue vertical and horizontal extremes based on todays indicator level. The green vertical and horizontal lines are other relative extremes.

The end of year to the beginning of year seem to be interesting.

And a happy new year to you, too.

regards,

Johnny



0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #20 
Closed the little Qs long yesterday. Not a great trade. Less than 1%. The hourly gave a sell. Oh, well. The daily is still on a buy. Strong support around 43.65; strong resistance around 44.60. On the 12/22 chart above, the horizontal red line is the first line to take for the bullish case.

Although most the charts look bad, there are some ST indicators suggesting that a rally could take place soon, so if that red line could be taken out with the daily MACD crossing over as opposed to a back kiss, then at least a run on the stops is likely. Ready to go short, if price and the signals reflect as such.

0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #21 
Follow up chart:


0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #22 
Although the week is not yet complete, a chart:


0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #23 
Also, check out the PVO. A blow off top is possible. Staying in reactive mode, however.
0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #24 
Now testing the descending TL channel, top channel #4. So ST measures are at an extreme.
0
hiker

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #25 
1/22 closing basis

I am not buying this move until a bounce is in play..could easily go much lower...tomorrow and Wed. will be most interesting.

daily -




__________________

Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #26 
Agree:


0
hiker

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #27 
I entered Q's long in the premarket weakness....target to sell and consider flipping to short ranges at the most (for now is my thinking) - 43.69/90 - 44.23...your 43.86 no. mentioned yest. may be all we get....stop is 8 cents below my a.m. entry.

giving it a shot made sense with the premarket entries today

am monitoring what happens once a move above the 2-day sma occurs, if any...and monitoring the 5 and 20 sma's on the 3, 13 and 60 minute charts


__________________

Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #28 
hiker,

So far, your entry is looking good. Some indicators are now flashing "buy." The question now is whether or not the market can put this together to set up a rally.

0
hiker

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #29 
I am wanting to leave this long trade early...I am taking 50% off the table for now on the move to .95 ...standing aside for bit.

no post value here since it is not based on analysis...


__________________

Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #30 
There is the TA aspect and there is the trader aspect. You are also an excellent trader. There is a lot of value in your post.
0
hiker

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #31 
thanks, Johnny.

weekly chart...what will happen if and when $44.45 Thursday's bounce high is tested?

QQQQ near-term resistance at 44.45 (Thursday's 11:15am and 12:05pm bounce highs).

heavier resistance 44.82 - 45.40

this weekly chart makes the $42.88 area of great interest from the standpoint of potential support, and when
to possibly start favoring aggressive swing trading the short side

...until then, sell signals may be elusive and not as fun as long trades.






__________________

Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #32 
Reversed at resistance and testing yesterdays lows. EOD may tell the story.
0
jmicou

TW Patron +
Registered:
Posts: 948
Reply with quote  #33 
Started a new thread.
0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch