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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #1 

One of the numerous outputs of a collaborative NYSE data crunching project led by Tom McClellan is an indicator derived by multiplying the daily price change of each issue traded on the NYSE by the issue's respective volume.  If the stock advanced for the day, the price-change/volume product is in the up price change volume column, if the component's price declined for the day, its price-change/volume product is in the down price change volume column.

 

Have to get to work, so will only post the cumulative price-change volume line for this indicator, and will address the McClellan tool variants of this data later.  Below is the cumulative price-change volume ($PCV) line over the past couple of years...  note the divergence in strength of the $PCV line versus the NYA.

 

 

Next is a longer term look at the $PCV line.  Note this indicator ignored price rally attempts during 2002 and early 2003, and started rising in a meaningful manner only after the March 2003 price bottom.

 

 

Seems like if the price bottom was indeed behind us, this indicator would be confirming the recent price rally.

 

FWIW

 

Randy

 

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jmicou

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Reply with quote  #2 
Randy,

This caught my attention. It would be interesting to look at other time frames for such divergences. Messed with a few TLs on your chart. The other times marked in rectangles, the $Wtd P-C UD V. Line continued lower while the NYA double or triple bottomed. So, it does beg the question as to whether the NYA has yet to establish its bottom via a retest.

Thanks,

Johnny


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mss

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Reply with quote  #3 
Not sure if this helpful, but thought it might add to the overall prediction as to IT trend. The charts are suggesting that if BOP (money flow) erodes enough to break the 34ema trend, then price will top out very soon thereafter. A break of the 89 week BOP would set up a LT price decline.




Scott
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