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hiker

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Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #1 
no need to reply to this question unless you have a chart or trade action about this subject:

Poll question:

do you believe this is data that can be acted upon now? in spite of bullish chart data that indicates a recent attempt to hold on price pullbacks.

Poll answer options:

                       
1.  yes, look to trade short now.


2.  no, more time or price action is necessary before trading the short side.


"The most common retracement rate is 50% of a previous trend. A minimum retracement is 1/3rd and a maximum is 2/3rd of a prior trend."

IF the retracement back Up of the current downtrend becomes MORE than a 2/3rd retracement of the recent swing declines for SPX, NYA and XAU, then we can consider a reversal of the 2008 downtrend may be CONFIRMED.

SPX swing decline is:

$1,007 to $741

last week's high represents a 66.6% retracement of this swing decline

NYA swing decline is:

$6,352 to $4,607

last week's high represents a 62% retracement of this swing decline                                

XAU swing decline is:

153.84 to $63.52

today's $115.55 high represents a 57.6% retracement of this swing decline...more on the XAU here -

http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/fib_1618/vpost?id=3169752


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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,418
Reply with quote  #2 
Quote:
do you believe this is data that can be acted upon now? in spite of bullish chart data that indicates a recent attempt to hold on price pullbacks.

Though the price structure is what many may make their decision in replying to Hiker's poll, the answer actually lies in the internal action that allows such price structures to be acknowledged (or analyzed) in the first place.

Without going into too much more detail, I would suggest that anyone who wishes to respond to Hiker's poll (and I hope you do so) to first look at the McClellan Oscillator data over at Decision Point before picking a response. For those who have been involved with the chat sessions over the last 3 years, it will become very clear on which response would have the higher probability outcome, and trust that someone out there will pick up the baton and share their analysis within this specific context.

Thanks for the post Steve...I look forward in reading what others may come up with.

Fib

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