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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 























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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

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“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #2 

It's been a few weeks since the longer term weekly breadth has been reviewed, so will take this opportunity to pollute Fib's thread with some weekly NYSE breadth charts, first the common stock only weekly AD data.

 

The weekly common cumulative AD line took a slight rest last week after achieving all-time highs several weeks ago.  Note how the May 2006 weekly common AD high provided nice support during the early November sell-off.

 

 

The weekly common AD McClellan Oscillator (MCO) has backed off to +43 after stalling out at +58 for the prior two weeks.  Thus far, the pattern of higher lows and higher highs from the summer 2006 lows remains intact for this longer term liquidity-inflow acceleration tool.

 

 

The weekly common stock only AD McClellan Summation Index (McSum) continues to overcome resistance levels.  At +603, the next objective is the +686 high achieved in the spring of 2006. A clean break of the slowly rising ledge pattern carved out from November 2005 until late April 2006 would be a significant bullish liquidity inflow event for the longer term.

 

 

The long term weekly NYSE composite (all-issues) cumulative AD line continues to post new all-time highs... thanks to the preferred stocks and bond CEFs, the weekly composite AD line had a net gain last week.

 

A comment about the differences between the daily and weekly NYSE composite cumulative AD lines.  As most students of breadth are aware, the NY daily ratio-adjusted AD line (RA-AD) has yet to break its 1959 all-time high (although as of 12-1-06, less than 7,000 net advances are needed to make a new high), the weekly cumulative RA-AD line continues breaking record after record.

 

Note how the weekly RA-AD line diverges with price long before a serious price correction unfolds.  Due to that characteristic, the probability is very low any major price decline is in the cards over the coming months.

 

 

The NY composite weekly AD McSum continues higher after recently breaking its nearly 2.5 year pattern of lower highs and lower lows.  At +1242, it had taken out two resistance levels, with the next hurdle being the +1487 high posted in February, 2005.

 

An important point to keep in mind for the longer term, is as long as the weekly composite AD McSum continues rising while it is comfortably above the +1000 level, the probability of a significant price decline is extremely low.  Thus for now, all is clear for the longer term health of the market... the direction of longer term money flows into the composite group of NYSE stocks is simply too strong to support the notion of a price collapse at this time.

 

 

FWIW,

 

Randy

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no_mind

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Reply with quote  #3 

Randy,

    Thank you so much for adding your wonderful charts and commentary to Fib's thread as I always look forward to them and value their contents.

Best,

Tom

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #4 
Based on this weeks data presented in the area of money flow analysis, it's probably safe to say that any and all pullbacks in price should be continued to be used as aggressive buy points towards the markets in all of the asset classes - stocks, bonds, commodities, and the precious metals.

With the added weekly charts shown by Mortiz, it would also appear that this current uptrend in stocks has enough staying power to continue well into the spring of 2007 (and continues to reinforce how important it is when both the 9 month and 4 year cycles are moving concurrently in the same direction).

All in all, this is, without question, the strongest all around uptrend seen in money flow since records have been kept in 1926, and it would be a real shame to lose out on this "once in a lifetime" opportunity to fully exploit it.

Fib

P.S. - And with that said, the markets can crash now.

Seriously though, what we're witnessing here is the most incredible displays of liquidity strength ever seen. It's just a matter of time now before the ratio adjusted NYAD breaks to new highs, and when it does, the sky really is the limit.

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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da_cheif

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Reply with quote  #5 
".......center of primary wave 3 up"........registered and copyrited  ...da_cheif 1982
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