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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #1 
These two networking/telecom equipment stocks have been trashed. I see signs of life there though. Telecom has been the strongest sector so far this year so I had to ask myself what will follow that trend and the answer seemed obvious.

I do seem to recall in the old days that semis would run first then networkers would follow.

We are seeing some relative strength in these two stocks at a time when one would expect end of quarter window dressing and tax loss selling to be taking them down as they were the laggards in performance for this quarter.

I anticipate this to be a new sector for money to flow in the coming quarter.


What did Livermore say about being early in a move? Yes, I do best when I catch something before others.

I realize this is not terribly techincal but it is how I trade and sometimes it even works.

I would love input negative or positive.
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hiker

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Reply with quote  #2 
Hi Turkey,

MRVC

when looking at daily and weekly chart, my first impression only is that an entry this far from the recent support that was tested is too risky relative to the nearby resistance zone...I see the move vs. the d/t line etc...

it just now tested an upside move above the 50week ema....where the current advance has stalled so far


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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #3 
Thanks hiker.

I have one foot in and am looking to add on a retest. Today is the second day of a rally so it could pull back. Extr just started to rally today on good volume.

I think the strength relative to what should be happening to these laggards is the important factor here.

It just seems like accumulation to me.
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #4 
We are seeing unprecedented demand for bandwidth and it has me thinking that we need to anticipate the next telecom spending cycle.

Doesn't it always come down to supply and demand?

Verizon announced their plans for spending on fiber to the home today. One other point some may not have realized perhaps it is just a small point or perhaps there are no small points.

One can no longer download music off of itunes with a dial up connection. Until recently it could be done but the latest upgrade in itunes makes it impossible.

http://telecom.seekingalpha.com/article/16818

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #5 
Cramer said the same thing about bandwidth when he mentioned DIVX in his Mad Money show last night...that sure was a money maker  since then even tho' he said not to buy it in the after hours market.

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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #6 
That Cramer is always copying me.
He hated akam and apple when I originally bought them then later, much later pounded the table.
I got into nvda at 18 and he recommended it recently above 30.

He will recommend these just give him a little time.
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hiker

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Reply with quote  #7 
He said he still likes AKAM when talking about DIVX...I have sold my DIVX longs bought last night, etc. Back in another day.

interesting that BRCM is supported at 29.50 area on more than one test in recent days

MRVL's support zone is even more strong.

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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #8 
I really like mrvl here.

Akam seems a bit overdone, it bounced down off of it upper trendline today. It could break through and go crazy but I think another base is in order at the very least. I had my finger on the short trigger today on that one and I just couldn't pull it. Darn lizard brain.
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hiker

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Reply with quote  #9 
fast money and intraday swing traders seem to prefer BRCM today...29.50 area continues to be bought

AKAM - note the intraday low that was bought Tues and  Wed

DIVX - small float helps the "Jim Cramer" rally...he said to never use anything but regular session and limit orders ...IPO was this month.


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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #10 
Light volume pull back on mrvc today. More bids than asks.

It almost seems to easy.

I really have to say the more I read on this one the more I like it.
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #11 
Ok guys,

I took profit in extreme today and am considering rolling that profit into mrvc.

Why?

It is just the chart. extr has its 200ema above and mrvc has all its moving averages acting as support.

I could be wrong but I am happy with my profit there. Around 15%.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MRVC&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p28780726842

Use the same link but put in extr as well and compare.
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #12 
MRVC really popping today up 6%.

I thought about selling a portion but have instead decided to sit on my hands for now.

Maybe when Cramer recommends it I will need to sell a portion.
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #13 
Oh heck, I sold a portion.

Just too much gain in one day to not take at least some off the table.

I think I will hold the cash for now.
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #14 
Steve,

You must have some brain capacity to follow as many stocks as you do. I tend to focus on just a few otherwise I can't sleep at night.

I still will focus on telecom equipment as telecom is the best performing sector so far this year and I am still the only one I see talking about telecom equipment that I can find.

Sometimes it seems obvious.
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hiker

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Reply with quote  #15 
good idea...about 8 names or so in telecom on the rising trenders - tech list I post here.

I have owned AMT in a core retirement plan forever, and that is as simple and obvious as it gets since the late ' 80's...

ck out test today of the high volume (for last week only) intraday high reached last week for MRVL at 17.94...one has to like chop to swing trade the semis right now.

\




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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #16 
I bought back my trading shares at 3.09.

Boy, this market is fast and fun.
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #17 
Hiker,

It is funny that you brought up lvlt today. That is one I have watched but never bought.

The chart of mrvc looks very much like lvlt to me but at an earlier stage. Now if the telecom equipment sector follows the telecom sector that would make sense.

Lvlt ran up with a big gap on large volume only to descend again to retest its lows. Lvlt is gaining on its old highs again but in a much less dramatic fashion.

Mrvc also ran up on big volume and then descended but has now started to climb back up.
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #18 
I sold the close at 3.17.

We need to tighten this range. It is too broad. There is to much risk into tomorrow's trading session for me to remain fully long.
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #19 
Mrvc continues to pull back and consolidate on light volume.

That was just what I wanted to see.

I bought back my mrvc at 3.07 and extr at 3.96.

The interesting thing about extr for me right now is that its partner jnpr just blew away their numbers but all anyone wants to talk about is apple.


This whole sector is still very much under the radar.
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #20 
The quick intraday drop and then move up today in extr is very bullish. That stick washes out the weak hands. Now it should have the fuel to take out the 200dema above. Long but haven't added just wish I did on that drop.
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #21 

Gap up on earnings.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MRVC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39895843069

This is a breakaway gap by my estimation and therefore I will not be selling it for awhile. I tend to think selling the breakaway gap is one of the biggest rookie mistakes one can make. I know, because I have done it.

 

I will let you know when I sell.

You might not hear from me for awhile. It is time to just be a turkey and sit.

 

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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #22 
I jumped out of these two today. They haven't done anything for me lately and I am playing some China stocks.

I must go with what is moving.

I may jump on these again at a later date.

Best to all!
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #23 
I just bought mrvc again today at 3.53.

Telecom had a little slump but is coming back and networkers should again follow.
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hiker

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Reply with quote  #24 
I am waiting for lower horizontal zones -

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mrvc

thanks for the update, Turkey.

You have any ideas about an AAPL reentry?

my tax-loss selling candidates that I have compiled so far... for watching for a low into year-end...to play for a possible 2007 bounce include (are the recent bounces in some of these names false rallies that will fizzle?)

DRL
IMAX
BHIP
WLV
OATS
HAL


SNDK ?
XSNX.OB ?
GLW?
CWTR?

---------

these were some of my picks posted here last year in December for a potential January rally based on the combo of tax loss selling in Dec and the potential buying by shorts in January (to defer taxes):







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Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #25 
Apple, looks like maybe yesterday. When I look at my charts I have so many points of possible support zones that is tough for me to pick an entry despite the fact that I know I probably should. 85 was one area and that got hit yesterday but I didn't enter.

I think that we may see some of the best performers lag going into the end of the year as some funds who have held them with very good years lock in gains and others prepare to pay taxes on gains by taking some profit.

I am very happy with grrf my china pick. I think if it closes above 18 the 20s will be easy.

I will look at those because I agree that playing the bounce in the tax loss selling laggers is usually a good trade.

I can't even read all the bears on TT anymore. Everything is so extreme all the time. I mean quit with the drama and make some money.

It all reminds me of a song by Mary J. Blige, "No More Drama."

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #26 
12/13 intraday

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mrvc

3.20 to 3.30 horizontal area of interest from a risk management point of view for MRVC.

tested the 50day sma today, which resides at top of the horizontal zone.

I bought some, on this test but will bail if my entry price gets tested much.


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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #27 
Hi Hiker,

Cien beat this morning, that should help the networkers.
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hiker

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Reply with quote  #28 
thanks for the info. Turkey. Happy with the one-day profit in MRVC so I sold it today.

Will keep an eye on 3.55 to 3.60 zone for alerts.

I sold many longs today....may need to buy them back next year...in the meantime have cash looking for a home. Sold longs today in index futures, IVV, and many individual names. Simply money and risk management.

Bought back PMU today...large position.

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Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #29 
just an fyi,


I dumped grrf today on the gap up at 18.9.

I am hoping to buy back on a fill but might not happen.
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #30 
Ok back in at 18.05


I really should be xmas shopping.
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #31 
ok back out again of both grrf and mrvc.

This market seems stalled after such a powerful start and I really want to protect my gains and go xmas shopping.

I am sorry for cluttering up the board with my trades that more and more seem like day trades. I don't intend to be a day trader but sometimes that is just where the market takes me.

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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #32 
Now Cramer likes Mrvc as it gaps up into what could be resistance. I find myself just not so sure could run like lvlt or could stall. But then I am out and maybe just a little jealous.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/madmoneywrap/10332384.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Notice my post from Sept where I said he would like this someday.



Oh well, he is still bashing the Chinese stocks.
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #33 
Well the Cramer gap filled. I knew it had too.

I am a buyer here today but only a little because I am more chicken than turkey today.
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hiker

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Reply with quote  #34 
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mrvc

today's low is the 20week sma

so far, is simply a 3-box consolidation reversal on the PnF chart shown in link

I have been flat MRVC for a while...

you keep SFE and CLRT?

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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #35 
Yes on sfe and clrt.

I think next week will be good for those two no matter what the market does. Clrt held up rather well today in the carnage but I would not be surprised by st weakness before next weeks earnings. Clrt especially is a keeper, most don't understand what that company has going on and I like that.

Mrvc might just be a trade.
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hiker

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Reply with quote  #36 
Hi L - thank you.

btw, 50month ema for CLRT is 1.94....has held back advances since Sept 2000

CLRT dips since Oct have held at the 50 week ema...minor dips now are holding at 20-week sma

$1.43 if seen again is a buy ...from a risk/reward standpoint...and if willing to sit on this trade with patience...weekly and monthly charts are bullish...I see no way to interpret the price action in another manner...any one see something I am not?

200 week sma is $1.40
20 week sma is 1.40
50 week ema is 1.26

from horizontal standpoint..an entry near 1.20 if seen again may be ideal

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Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #37 
Also note the 200 week ema but I am with you on the 50 month ema.

Interesting to see all of these converging at what might end up being some interesting fundamental catalysts.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CLRT&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93927569352
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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #38 
Added to mrvc today in the 3.60s.

Not guts no glory etc.


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