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hiker

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Reply with quote  #1 

McO & McSum for S&P 500 index - December 2017 trend:


the daily chart for these index breadth internals
reflects -
a slightly sizable 2nd half December 2017 weakness trend which
is negatively divergent versus the higher highs
price action observed for the S&P 500 index
in December ... these internals looked better in
the late November through early December period

additionally, if you view the charts for selected other index
statistics, compared to the higher highs S&P 500 price action --

the 2nd half of December printed sizable negatively
divergent lower highs by the internal statistics

and in this case much
closer distance to the zero line
than seen since November 2016 by several of the
daily lows for the statistics listed below -

* S&P 500 index # of new 52-week price highs
* S&P 100 index # of new 52-week price highs
* the Net # computed by subtracting item 2 from item 1
* plot of the 10-day moving average for the daily difference between the S&P 500 New price Highs minus
the New price Lows

Pros to these several negatively divergent weakness trends in
2nd half of December 2017 by McO, McSum, and the # of new price
highs statistics -

a large amount of room exists for potential upside improvement using historical multi-year chart norms

Cons

a moderate to large amount of S&P 500 price damage within the January
to March 2018 period is a possible outcome of the upward drift
in December by the index price action without being accompanied by the actual
"optimal" bullish evidence observed in the daily charts
for the McSum and McO breadth and # of new highs statistics for
the S&P 500 index and for the S&P 100 index

Note - the monthly 21,2 Upper Bollinger Band value at the Thursday
12/28/2017 close was

SPY $269.37

while

SPY $268.55 was the day session high on
Friday 12/29/2017
( $268.98 was seen in the early a.m. pre-market session )

in addition, take a look at the 15-day look back period
for the dividend-adjusted SPY and RSP price history
at StockCharts.com with:
the 60-minute
price bars and
with the 21,2 Bollinger Bands ...

the new all-time record price high achieved Friday
near the open by RSP (Equally Weighted)
was a rare large size relative distance above its
60-minute Upper BB ... while SPY did NOT achieve a new record
high on Friday
( this is why using dividend-adjusted price history
provided by StockCharts.com is so important when comparing
present to recent price history - nearly all charting platforms do NOT
even provide the settings feature to allow a technician to chart the dividend-adjusted price history)

===========

new record price highs on Friday December 29, 2017 were printed by:

RSP - Equally Weighed version of SPY - all 500 components are treated equally and
not weighted by the size of the capitalization value to compute the value of the Equally Weighted S&P 500 index represented by RSP
XLY
XLI
XLB


shown below is the Friday close snapshot
for the 60-minute SPY and RSP with their
21,2 Bollinger Bands, and with the
50,2 SPY Bollinger Band, and with
the plot of the RSP to SPY ratio ---

SPY and RSP 60-min - December 29, 2017 Friday end of year.png 







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hiker

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Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #2 
daily chart showing three months for:

statistics showing the S&P 500 minus the S&P 100 
number of new 52-week price highs, producing a chart
result that shows in the Main Chart body the -

histogram plot of the Net #  -
updated for December 29, 2017 Friday end of year

SPX minus OEX new highs for adjusted net new highs daily chart - Decem.png 

for a broader historical comparison, here is a similar
chart I have saved on my hard drive, as of July 31, 2014

and provides actual evidence for the 2014 price result following an upper
range weakness trend in the S&P 500 and S&P 100 internals to which
this post refers for the period following the late November 2017 peak thrust
by these internal statistics:

SPX minus OEX new highs for adjusted net new highs daily chart - July .png


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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
Thank you again for your contributions Steve...good work!!

Fib

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hiker

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Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #4 
SPY daily closes chart using the 65,2 BB setting and
showing the S&P 500
ITBM, McSum and McO
- December 29, 2017 Friday:


note - the plot of the 21-day simple moving average for the S&P 500
McO has been declining while above its zero line during late December
2017 ... the bullish case wants to see an eventual & lasting upside reversal

* the purpose for choosing to view the chart's
history since 2014 for each element is to potentially
improve the technical interpretation for the current
 & future price outcome probability


SPY daily closes chart using the 65,2 BB setting and showing the S&P 5.png 


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #5 
S&P 500 index daily with
S&P 500 A-D line and
McClellan indicators -
December 29, 2017
Friday

* notice the recent weakness in all chart elements is
slightly or moderately large, while the A-D line for the
S&P 500 does not yet reflect a large percentage decline
from its very late December new record high,
all of which calls for prudent future vigilance ...
since the shot over the bullish bow is evident
in these chart elements


SPX daily with S&P 500 A-D line and McClellan indicators - December 29.png 


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hiker

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Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #6 
#1 - be very alert since the S&P 1500 index closed today very near its
100-day sma,
and resides near its daily 21,3 lower BB today,
February 5, 2018

whether a bull or bear, these are significant technical
chart levels to monitor going forward ...
bulls must defend the 100-day sma on a lasting basis

#2 - the S&P 500 McO today = minus 132.25,
which resides within the McO multi-year low
extreme range ... so high vigilance has merit

at or below this McO level was seen in:
2015 during one decline low by the McO
2013, 2014 and 2016 to 2017 - not seen
2008 to 2012 - several times

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hiker

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Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #7 
  the SPY 50,2 daily lower
Bollinger Band was violated today for the 1st time in
many months, along with the 200 dema ..though the 200 dsma was not
touched
(using the dividend-adjusted price history for the
math calculation for these moving averages)

though the lower BB violation by today's SPY low was held for only a very brief
duration before an immediate advance back up of approx $8.50
into today's February 9, 2018 close

FYI - zero line for the PMO indicator for the SPY daily was approached
for the 1st time in months today ... scroll down from the top of this chart
set for the SPY daily -

http://stockcharts.com/articles/sharedcharts.php?cc=8512197

SPY daily with 50,2 BB and the two moving averages: 

SPY daily with 50,2 BB and 200 dsma dema - February 9, 2018 close Frid.png 


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hiker

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Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #8 
updated for Monday's close, February 12, 2018

FYI for trivia buffs:

* a February price low for SPY in one specific year, and nothing but upside followed for months - was a V-bottom
* an early February price low for /CL futures and for SPY and for the /ES futures
   achieved in the late pre-market session in an earlier year - this was a very significant technical event low on
   the day session charts for that year, and nothing but upside followed for months - was a V-bottom
     
* will early February 2018 be a repeat? 
will we see a V-bottom, even though the Monday-Tuesday of last week /ES futures
    Globex session price low has not been fully re-tested from above by a day session /ES futures price print?


SPX daily showing February for 2014 thru 2016 with USO

chart period through year end 2016:

SPX daily showing February for 2014 thru 2016 with USO - through year .png 




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