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hiker

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Reply with quote  #1 


Tim Knight, founder of prophet charts, has some good index charts up tonight

the support zone for SPX, highlighted in green, is of interest..and corresponds with 1362 I have shown previously on a weekly chart

http://slopeofhope.com/

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mss

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Reply with quote  #2 
Interesting, because I have been talking and posting about 1373ish for a very long time and most have laughed at me.
Best to you and thanks for all the info you share with us.
Scott

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #3 
what Tim Knight says today, excerpt shown below, is a worthy read (I am not personally endorsing the final conclusion that Tim states, but thoughts here are good reminders, and the charts at his site paint clearly the price milestones for weighing future price action) -

http://slopeofhope.com/

We all know what ruins traders. Fear and greed. More specifically, fear and greed at precisely the wrong times.

For a bear, it goes like this. When the market is going up and up and up, you get more and more afraid, and by the time the market tops out and starts to turn, you are terrified and immobilized. You are not entering positions at what is, in fact, the ideal time.

Conversely, when the market is getting clobbered, you getting greedier and greedier, and when there is massive capitulation, you go hog-wild (or bear-wild) and buy up puts like there's no tomorrow. Then the market whips around, throwing a nuclear bomb under your portfolio.

The above is a recipe for disaster, and to some degree, I have followed the aforementioned plan. Over many years, however, I have tried more and more to turn these emotions upside-down. I try very hard to be afraid when things are going great and to be greedy when things seem darkest. It has helped.

Of course, that can work against you. These days, my fear is cheating me out of some amount of profits. I tend to close out positions too soon (either wholly or partly), even though those positions may continue to explode skyward in value. But there's no such thing as a perfect trader, and as long as my account is growing quickly, I'm a happy guy.

Having said all that, you can imagine I am embracing fear strongly right now, even though the value of my portfolio is vaulting skyward by amounts I never thought possible. The horrible memories of those two Bulltards, Paulson 'n' Bernanke, keeps me scared. The antics they pulled during the summer to save the bulls caused some real damage to my account.

The good news is that I think they have painted themselves into a corner. What are they going to do now? Cut rates so that the demolished dollar gets even more demolished? Raise interest rates and crush the equity markets? Bail out $300,000,000,000 in subprime debt with money that the government simply doesn't have? I think our Bald Boys may be out of options, so to speak.

All the same, you never know what crap B&P are going to pull out of their criminal backsides. So - - embrace fear!

It's past 4 p.m. my time, and it started to dawn on me that by the time I finished my charting, I'd be posting the blog at about 3 in the morning. I know people are waiting for my post, so I wanted to make it shorter and more general as opposed to throwing you dozens of charts.

Are we in a bear market yet? I'm not positive. Trading since October 14th has been wonderful, but we're at about the levels we were in mid-August, and we bounced from there to new highs. So I'm not sure. What I do know, however, is that if a real bear market has started (or will start), there is a huge, huge amount of pain ahead for the bulls. In my view, the bear market of 2000-2002 was just a dry run of something more larger. Complete financial cataclysm........



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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #4 
Quote:
Having said all that, you can imagine I am embracing fear strongly right now...In my view, the bear market of 2000-2002 was just a dry run of something more larger. Complete financial cataclysm........

"The other characteristic of 2nd waves is that the level of anxiety will generally be more acute than it was prior to beginning of wave 1, but now at higher price levels that were seen at the actual bottom."

"C" waves correct the inconsistencies or indecisiveness that ''B'' waves bring, and again is usually accompanied by news for the masses to digest. Like Wave 3, it starts slowly in accepting that things are not what they seem to be, and then accelerates to a point when all the willing AND unwilling sellers throw in the towel and give up."

Hmmmm.....

Fib

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #5 
Tim Knight views the most recent rally as one to fade, expecting it to be short-lived -

http://slopeofhope.com/


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #6 
Tim has updated his set of index charts for today, Monday

http://slopeofhope.com/


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #7 

Tim plans to sell the current rally on Monday, and he points out Friday's move to the .618 SPX retracement of the 1575 to 1406 decline -

http://slopeofhope.com/

Gary's comments from Friday reflect a different view for December (I have observed and taken note during all of 2007 that some of Gary's stated largest long-term long positions - ISRG, GOOG, APPL - remain in recently unbroken weekly uptrends...he earns my respect as a solid trader).

http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/

excerpt from Gary -

The NYSE reported yesterday that short interest on the exchange, over the last two weeks of November, rose from 12.39 billion shares to 12.77 billion shares, which is just off the all-time high of 12.95 billion shares in July.
 
Moreover, the 3.1% increase leaves NYSE short interest up an astounding 33.2% since mid-February, the largest percentage jump since at least 1991, when Bloomberg began tracking. This is just more evidence, in my opinion, that the many bears continue to party like it's 2000-2003, despite the S&P 500's 105% gain from that period's lows.

The parabolic rise in short interest this year is unsustainable and only brings the "mother of all short-covering rallies" closer, in my opinion.
-------
 
AAPL article found at Gary's site -
 
http://bigtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2007/12/07/apples-15-billion-cash-hoard/?section=money_technology

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #8 
Tim's summary of price action through Wednesday close -

excerpt, with his bearish slant -

The good news is that the Fed has thrown the bulls everything under the sun, and even with all those advantages, they're not getting results! I can't think of anything better.

http://slopeofhope.com/


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #9 
12/17 premarket

Gary posts this interesting observation at his site

http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/

- Consumer confidence is falling, the odds of a recession have risen, analysts predict the worst holiday shopping since 2002 – and retail-industry executives are buying their companies’ shares like never before.
 
 Limited Brands(LTD) CEO Leslie Wexner and eight other executives bought a record amount of stock last month after prices fell to a four-year low.
 
Dillard’s(DDS) director Warren Stephens made the biggest insider purchase ever as shares of the department store headed for the steepest decline since at least 1980.
 
Cambiar Investors LLC, Royce & Assoc. LLC and Becker Capital Management say insider buying foreshadows a rebound. The last four times executives added to their holdings, the S&P 500 Supercomposite Retailing Index rose an average of 9.9% in the next three months, topping a 6.2% average rise in the S&P 500.
 
 Retail company officials increased their investments by $346.4 million sine the start of November, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and InsiderScore.com.
 
--------
 
and he posts these news links of note -
 

Wall Street Journal:

- The battered US dollar is getting a reprieve as investors temper their pessimism about the state of the economy.
- Holiday sales of electronics products have been strong, Sony Corp. CEO Howard Stringer said.

Economist.com
- Growth stocks are the new retro chic. According to Wisdom Tree, an investment firm, growth stocks have beater their “value” counterparts by 12 percentage points among large American stocks, 16 points among smaller companies and by ten points on international(non-American) markets.

 

Al-Hayat:
- The Gulf Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, may “revalue” their currencies against the dollar, citing Sultan bin Nasser al-Suwaidi, the UAE’s central bank governor. The decision to keep the US dollar peg is “final” and not open for discussion, al-Suwaidi said.


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #10 
more news today of interest...(absence of  optimistic news may indicate the swing bottom is either close or has arrived)

09:32  Retailers face an ominous holiday sign - NY Times

NY Times reports sales of women's clothing, a traditional pillar of the holiday shopping season, are unusually bleak so far this year, according to a major credit card co, an ominous sign for the retail industry. From high-end dresses to bargain coats, spending on women's apparel dropped nearly 6% during the first half of the Christmas season, compared with the same period last year, according to MasterCard (MA) Advisors, a division of the credit card co. The drop-off, which the credit card co described Sunday as "surprising," bodes poorly for chains like Chico's FAS (CHS) and Ann Taylor (ANN), which specialize in women's clothing, and could result in steeper-than-expected discounts on their merchandise in the final week before Christmas. The slowdown is worrisome because women make the vast majority of purchases in retailing, and their spending is a closely watched barometer of the industry's health. In contrast, sales of men's clothing rose 4.5% during the first 20 days of the season, MasterCard Advisors said.




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hiker

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Reply with quote  #11 
from Gary today-

http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/

Recent market bottoms have been preceded by the type of severe negative action that took place today in market leading stocks.

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #12 
Tuesday premkt

08:05  U.S. stock index futures rise to pre~mkt sessions best levels on the heels of Best Buy (BBY) results, traders await Goldman Sachs (GS) quarterly earnings

Currently, Mar. S&P 500 futures @ 1471.00 +14.25. Mar. Nasdaq 100 futures @ 2066.75 +17.25. Mar. Dow futures @ 13370 +101.


07:55 ECB pumps in extra 170 bln euros - FT

FT reports Emergency help for financial mkts has entered new territory with the European Central Bank pumping-in almost 170 bln euros extra liquidity at below mkt interest rates in a special operation to head off a year-end liquidity crisis. The surprise move, which followed last week's co-ordinated barrage of measures by the world's central banks to increase market liquidity, suggested the ECB was still frustrated at the failure to ease financial mkt tensions. Late on Monday, the ECB announced that it would offer unlimited funds on a two-week basis at an interest rate of 4.21% -- significantly below the market rate before its statement. On Tuesday, it confirmed some 348.6 bln euros - the largest ever for an ECB money market - had been allotted, compared with the 180.5 bln euros it had estimated would be needed in normal circumstances.


U.S. futures are up today.

06:26 S&P futures vs fair value: +11.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.0.


06:32 European stocks turn positive tracking U.S. futures

European stocks were little changed in early trade on Tuesday after the previous session's sharp losses as investors bought recently beaten down banking and industrial shares but mining shares declined. The gains in the broader market were limited by worries that rising inflation combined with a slump in the U.S. housing market could pull the U.S. economy into stagflation... Around European markets, Germany's DAX index and UK's FTSE 100 index were both up 0.1% and France's CAC 40 was steady. (Reuters)




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hiker

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Reply with quote  #13 
12/20

Gary's comment today -

http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/

After the close, Research In Motion(RIMM) beat earnings estimates and boosted its guidance, saying it sees “strong” enterprise demand. This report is a huge positive, given RIMM’s exposure to the financial services sector.

There still remains little evidence of the imminent recession that so many have been expecting since housing began deteriorating over two years ago. A further lifting of the uncertainty in the financial services sector, lower energy prices, more fed rate cuts and non-recessionary data in 1Q should provide the catalysts for a very good 1Q for US stocks.


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #14 
premkt news

07:45  Goldman's Cohen tells paper U.S. recession unlikely - Reuters

Reuters reports the US economy is unlikely to slip into recession, Abby Joseph Cohen, chief investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in remarks published on Friday. "That does not mean that the probability of a recession is zero. We just think that a slowing in growth is more likely than a recession," Cohen told Germany's Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper." "The Federal Reserve has shown in recent weeks that it is paying attention and that it wants to boost people's confidence," she added. While there was weakness in U.S. housing construction and some areas of private consumption, this would be offset by export growth and corporate investment, she said. Goldman expected U.S. economic growth of 1.8% next year, weaker than other institutions are predicting, she said, adding that the bank nonetheless viewed shares as undervalued. Cohen told the paper that the trend in U.S. inflation would remain moderate. Central banks did not have to worry about wage increases and could concentrate on the current problems on financial mkts.




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hiker

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Reply with quote  #15 
Gary today, though he has cited these statistics before:

http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/

Bearish Sentiment Now Exceeds Levels Seen at Depths of 2000-2003 Bear Market

               

* Meanwhile, corporate insiders are buying hand over fist.

The AAII percentage of bulls dropped to 35.85% this week from 47.6% the prior week. This reading is approaching depressed levels. The AAII percentage of bears jumped to 47.2% this week from 35.7% the prior week. This reading is now approaching elevated levels. Moreover, the 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently at 45.3%, an elevated level. It has only been higher two other times in its history, which were July-August 2006 and September 1990-December 1990. Moreover, the 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears peaked at 43.0% right near the major bear market low during 2002. It is astonishing that the 10-week moving average of the % bears is currently greater than at any time during the bubble bursting meltdown of 2000-2003, which was arguably the worst stock market decline since the Great Depression.

Furthermore, the 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently 38.3%, an elevated level seen during only one other period since tracking began in the 80s. That period was October 1990-July 1991, right near another major stock market bottom. The extreme reading of the 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears during that period peaked at 41.6% on Jan. 31, 1991. The current reading of 38.3% is slightly above the peak during the 2000-2003 bear market, which was 38.1% on April 10, 2003. I find this even more astonishing, notwithstanding the recent pullback, given that the S&P 500 is currently 102% higher from the October 2002 major bear market lows and just 5.2% off a record high.

Individual investor pessimism towards US stocks is currently deep-seated and historical in nature. This is just more evidence of the current “US negativity bubble" and bodes very well for further out-sized gains over the intermediate-term. It is also noteworthy that as investor pessimism grows ever thicker, corporate insiders continue to display downright giddy behavior with their recent stock activity during this pullback. It is even more interesting that the retail sector is seeing substantial insider buying, notwithstanding the current extreme investor pessimism towards the prospects for consumer spending. Prior to the 2000 economic downturn, insiders were bailing in droves. I continue to believe US stocks are poised for very strong performance during the first quarter of next year as the undying belief in an imminent recession fades and the uncertainty currently surrounding the financial sector lifts substantially.



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #16 
from Bear Stearns today about 2008 -

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_SBJ6tJjmis


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #17 
12/27 Forbes article on recession talk -

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1368/

another article -

http://www.safehaven.com/article-9112.htm


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