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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
At long last I've been able to pull together a longer term Elliott Wave count on the Dow based on the all time high levels of the New York Cumulative Advance/Decline data. Please be aware that because of the scale of the chart, some of the labeling is approximate to the actual termination point, but for these purposes, is good enough for the broader concept.

For simplicity, I've decided to leave out the correctional counts during this longer term time frame. Intermediate wave (4) can be labeled one of three ways, but its termination point in 1982 greatly compliments the internals and the sentiment of that time.

Questions and/or feedback is highly encouraged.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

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geosing

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Reply with quote  #2 
Nice chart. Where does the Primary 1 {1} start, according to this representation of the wave structure?

Geo
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
Quote:
Where does the Primary 1 {1} start, according to this representation of the wave structure?

Hi Geo

Primary wave {1} starts at the 1932 lows. So, in this case, we are currently in Primary wave {3} of either Cycle wave III or V.

However, as you and others may know, the standard fare for many years is that Primary degree labels would generally only last several years and not multiple decades. Such events would either be of Cycle or SuperCycle degree labeling. That may be the case here as well, and would probably make more analytical sense with regard to the time factor involved. However, if one were to nudge this count consideration one degree higher, it would then suggest numbers on the Dow that would be head spinning, no less, the time it would take to reach such numbers could take another 50 years or so just to get there! So I thought it better to be more realistic in the total overall concept and apply this degree of count solely on the rather "limited" history of the A/D line itself.

In any event, the next several years should be quite dramatic to the upside, and if anything else, it's going to be a good test to the merit of this methodology in general where others will be able to judge its usefulness later on.

Fib



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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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geosing

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Reply with quote  #4 
That is what I thought. Although the amplitude fit the picture of primary {1}, the time did not appear to. Hence the question.  Thanks for your explanation.

Geo
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