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GarySmith

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Reply with quote  #1 


For better or worse I have a tendency when I stop myself out of positions that go against me or come too far off recent highs to put some of the monies in whatever is still working for me.   I am left with but one position and one I have a bit of a history with, even speaking with one of their corporate officers last summer. This company got my attention at that time when it rose during the summer meltdown.  It supposedly prospers during times of corporate economic hardship - bankrupcies, credit problems and the like.  I haven't handled this stock as well as I would have liked having been shaken out of my original positions near the end of November because of heavy insider selling related to options.  I then re-entered some $4.00 higher two weeks later.  If this stock trades in the $57.50 to $57.75 area I am out.  

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=fcn&sid=0&o_symb=fcn&x=15&y=17


About the only sectors that seems to have survived this week's carnage are some of the CRO stocks (Contract Research Organizations) ala CVD, CRL (even though I sold my position in this one) and PPDI.  This could be an area to explore and monitor if the market rights itself. 

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=cvd&sid=0&o_symb=cvd&freq=1&time=8&x=30&y=10



http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=crl&sid=0&o_symb=crl&freq=1&time=8&x=42&y=21


http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ppdi&sid=0&o_symb=ppdi&freq=1&time=8&x=28&y=18

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Doug

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Reply with quote  #2 
"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""About the only sectors that seems to have survived this week's carnage are some of the CRO stocks (Contract Research Organizations) ala CVD, CRL (even though I sold my position in this one) and PPDI.  This could be an area to explore and monitor if the market rights itself."""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

Gary, thank you for that info.
as for survivors, the pm's have not only survived but most have closed strongly up for the week.

__________________
Charts are my opinion only and not a recomendation to buy or sell. I am long or short and flip
at any given moment....do your own dd. cheers!
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GarySmith

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Reply with quote  #3 

Thanks Doug.  You got me to looking around and the health and pharmacy benefits companies have also done well this week - HUM, MHS, and ESRX.  In fact, even though I have been more than aware of MDS over the past year, I wonder why I was so dumb to  not have hitched a ride as it is definitely my kind of chart pattern.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=mhs&sid=0&o_symb=mhs&x=58&y=19
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Doug

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Reply with quote  #4 
I keep trying to catch one of those rising channels but can't ever seem to do it early on.

Looking at the charts I notice that the dow and spx are down about 7% from their 12/11 highs while gld is up about 7% and slv is up about 5%.... with many of the minors up considerably more.
not bad

Now I am hoping the pm's turn into those channels...
I must admit that hope has cost me profit after profit tho.

__________________
Charts are my opinion only and not a recomendation to buy or sell. I am long or short and flip
at any given moment....do your own dd. cheers!
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DickW

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Reply with quote  #5 
Gary,

Like Doug I also have tried to catch some of these rising channels that you have mentioned previously but get shaken out. Do you use something like hikers 200 ma of a 60 minute time frame (see our exhange under the FSLR thread for more info)?

Thanks
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GarySmith

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Reply with quote  #6 

Dick I don't have a satisfactory answer and if anything, I have re-examined my whole tight rising channel concept.  That's because too often I think they are an accident waiting to happen because they are already priced for perfection.  Any negative, such as unexpected lowered guidance, an analyst downgrade (a very common occurrance for this chart pattern) and more can send these things into oblivion.  That is why I have gravitated more to the risers like FCN which hardly would be considered of the tight rising channel variety.  Here's another stock I may buy this week, SUNH, and again, it's a riser but not in the tight rising channel mode.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=sunh&sid=0&o_symb=sunh&x=17&y=11

About the only technical tool I use other than my sight is the 14 day RSI. 

Otherwise,  it's all about our risk tolerances and how much heat on a riser we are willing to sit through.  My problem has always been I like to keep my money working in something that is working while some of the best performing stocks have been those prone to periods of tediously long consolidations and or minor drawdown.  Let's face it, very few traders, least of all me, are blessed with patience, otherwise we would all be investors.  I am trying to work more on a happy medium between the two so I can capitalize more on some of the bigger moves I have missed in positions  exited prematurely because of that lack of patience.
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DickW

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Reply with quote  #7 

Thanks Gary

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