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Reply with quote  #1 
IYR is at an important juncture. It's largest component - SPG - is about to break down. This may provide some indication about the future direction of IYR. I noticed that some of the smaller and weaker REITs have already shown the way. Check GTY and WRE for example.

Homebuilder index isn't doing well today either. It is noticeable is that a component (MDC), which had been acting stronger for last few months, suddenly collapsed today without any news specific to it.


My long terms shorts - BSC, BZH, LEH, RTH are doing great. Long position in SRS did fantastic today. QID is also catching up.


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wyocowboy

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Reply with quote  #2 

  I have to agree with you on that Greenie -SPG looks very poor. I keep tabs on the Utilities as a leading indicator (of interest rates) and they are looking pretty poor. But in the short term, usually 3 nasty days have been about the limit, and a rebound is due. The breadth and extent of that rebound might give a hint of longer term (6 months) prospects.

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Reply with quote  #3 
You know what the front pages of all mutual fund brochures say? "short term timing of the market is very difficult - buy and hold"

I am going to do the same 'buy and hold' with my SRS positions.

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Reply with quote  #4 
I added to SRS (IYR inverse) at 85.27.  Small position this time - still holding much larger sizes from lower prices.

Those playing individual stocks may like SPG, GGP and KIM. SPG is the largest component of IYR. KIM has many shopping malls, and just bought some in California (the doomed state). GGP looks like a loser from the chart.
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Darris

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Reply with quote  #5 
For technical consideration, IYR is still holding the 50 week EMA, and the stock price of 80 held a second test from a week or so ago.  If you have read MSS's work on TT or here on TW, over the years he has mentioned some weekly EMAs to watch.  This upcoming week, the 8 week EMA may cross below the 34 week EMA, and if that happens, 80 may be a good sell stop point if it is not already below it.  That also means SRS could be a buy stop at its recent high around 89.  Otherwise, it is rally time, and the longer term Bull trend will continue.
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Reply with quote  #6 
Hi Darris,

Thank you for your comment, which I missed earlier. Yes, I am keeping a keen eye on 50 week MA. IYR is now below that line as well as 80 support. Unless there is a spectacular rally tomorrow, all those lower lines be broken, as well as 8/34 crossover will be violated.

I am also taking clues from SPG and KIM, two of the important components of IYR. KIM is leading way south now, and SPG is ready to follow.

Also, liquidity is running out fast out of the sector, as much as I can smell. I see signs of overspeculation in CRE everywhere around our neighborhood (Silly con valley).

I am holding on to my SRS positions from ~76 and small addition at 85.


Best to you,
Greenie
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