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TW Member
Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #1 
Monday -

11:12 et -
SNDK - esignal shows a daily PSAR buy and barely a bullish macd cross on the daily.  Note the moving average being approached:

07:26 More On The Wires

Digital Angel (DOC), announces it has received government approval from Uruguay and Chile to operate in those countries, further expanding the co's presence in the rapidly expanding livestock markets of South America.


Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon


TW Member
Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #2 
Tuesday -

20:25 et -
an excerpt from today's first page of Ted Burge's site at SC:

Dec 13th AND NOT ONLY RESISTANCE AT THE TARGETS BUT THE MOMENTUM OF MOVEMENT TO X'S WAS SLOWER TODAY THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT. Strong volume and X's and O's were virtually tied at 89 to X's and 84 O's with 28 buy signals and 20 sell signals. 3 weeks battling resistance and a high volume day like today often indicates a change of market direction. It's called a volume spike so be careful because volume this high must have institutional involvement and may not indicate that they were buyers.

Let me remind you that NOBODY KNOWS which way the market will go tomorrow, so like a good scout, 'BE PREPARED'.

I don't know how more graphic the picture can be, but the lessons on the slow moving indices are the same applied to fast moving stocks.

We have stressed buying with support and selling with resistance BECAUSE IT WORKS and when this premise is respected IT REMOVES JUDGEMENT FROM THE EQUATION.

charts of interest:
note where support has been to date on selloffs, Monday close was added to small cap 600 index
is the bounce from $36-37 it, or will it see 33? This is why I am daytrading it for now...the 5 min and 1 min macd are working fine for entries
not going to say anything because Ted Burge has this one wired
watch for sustained movement over $63 before getting excited about entry...remember some traders are into holding this until January for tax reasons....may limit additional buying from here...anything can happen...see atr version of PnF for some good info....Ted Burge posts that atr chart daily
note the PPO and daily resistance and volume trend
gap support near $46 has been tested multiple times since Sept

note price trend relative to the 8 and 21 ema's
note the daily macd

fundy - cell phones that are also cameras and MP3 players are fast becomming the desired product...requiring a miniSD card or some other product from SNDK. How much of this kind of example is already discounted in the price along with the competitive and pricing pressures is anyone's gamble.

This stock is a gamble unless a breakout can be defined (note the apparent upside break of the downsloping channel line on the weekly and daily), but the risk appears to be manageable on entries assuming a minimum risk to at least $46.

SNDK - one entry strategy to consider is using moving averages and make a trade entry only when both price and the faster moving avg. have crossed above the slower moving avg using 5/21 ema's, 8/34 ema's, 21/34 ema's for final confirmation of a new trend...or many variations of these. And needing only a single crossover for closing the position. Just one of many strategies.

under this stategy, shorts will definitely be hot to close positions on a price move above the 21 ema, where price currently resides as of the close.

from 12/9 -

SanDisk: NAND playing field gets a little less competitive, positive for SNDK - TWP (SNDK) 48.94 +0.63: Thomas Weisel notes that multiple articles in the press this morning discuss two flash memory manufacturers, Infineon (IFX) and Renesas, backing away from producing high-density chips. Firm believes that this news is positive for SNDK, as it lowers the perceived and future risk of quarterly NAND oversupply, which has at times weighed on the stock. This announcement also supports firm's view that it is extremely difficult to compete with Samsung and Toshiba/SNDK in flash memory, and that it will take time for the INTC/MU J.V. to capture significant mkt share away from the mkt leaders. Reits Outperform on SNDK.

18:02  GLW Tonight on Mad Money: Cramer is bullish on Corning

In light of Best Buy's (BBY) report on diminished traffic, Jim still feels that the demand for flat screens is still strong. He says that Best Buy will not be important to Corning in 18 months. Corning has a brand new diesel filtration business and he feels that this business hasn't been factored into the current stock price.  


15:31 Point Gainers List

Stocks pacing the way on a point basis include: AHC +4.43, UNA +4.36, GOOG +4.36, UTI +4.07, RYAA +3.75, WNE +3.66, BR +3,62, DIOD +3.45, ROH +3.40, TIE +3.32, LPNT +3.04, CB +2.94, PD +2.89, BTH +2.72, BGG +2.65, RAI +2.63, CGNX +2.44, GRMN +2.39, LM +2.33, GILD +2.30, PGR +2.18, SI +2.15, CME +1.97.

14:04 NTES testing the low of 12/7- note the swing low below that date.

13:22 Stay out of the Long End

PIMCO's Kiesel tells Bloomberg that they are advising people to "stay in the front end of the yield curve...We like anything from two to five years." He adds, "I'm not that confident that this economy can withstand higher interest rates. We think the Fed is going to be done soon."

12:46 SFCC SFBC Intl provides update on building progress at its Miami headquarters (17.90 -0.44)

Co announces that it is making progress in addressing previously announced concerns expressed by Miami-Dade County officials about structural issues at its Miami headquarters and clinical facility on Biscayne Boulevard, and the officials have authorized the removal of signs warning of unsafe conditions. In addition, the co's engineers have determined that the building does not present an actual or immediate danger to the public and that it can continue to be occupied. SFCC is continuing to cooperate with the County on these issues and plans that it will be able to make any remediation deemed necessary.

in the future, what happens at the $64 area, if it reaches that level again, may be important technically for this stock and others in the sector. Note the previous breakout area marked by that price.

for kicks, note the M formation on the Point and Figure chart.


11:16 et, DBRN -
cross-post of what I just posted at another site -

esignal shows the value of the daily PSAR buy for DBRN is 33.43 and the distance from price to the PSAR line is decreasing since the 11/30 gap up.

DBRN - note the structure of the daily and hourly MACD. Note current daily resistance. Note daily and hourly volume.

Who has the greatest risk here is the question. New longs buying at current price or new shorts entering at current price? Which trade is the most manageable in terms of determining "proven wrong"?

The seasonal aspect of trading this sector may make trading this one a slow patient wait to see who is proven wrong. So far, the daily support trendline since the gap up has not been broken giving confidence to longs. Contrary traders may be hesitant to trade the current setup. Watching what happens at resistance is most impt between support and resist if attempting a swing trade may make sense.

The most recent daily low is 34.36 and another before at 34.48

insider transactions, most recent sale filed is 12/9 -


10:44 Strength in UNA (+14%), BGG (+6.7%), DOX (+5%), LPNT (+5%), CB (+2.3%) attributed to addition to selection as Top Picks for 2006 by brokerage firm

10:20 et - PETS, NMTI, and HANS make new 52-wk highs.

later in day - add DRQ and CAKE to new high list

later in day - OIH.

later - PNRA


07:37 ENER Energy Conversion Devices: Buy rating reiterated at Merriman, firm sees 'multiple catalysts' (33.25 )

Merriman reiterates Buy rating on ENER, notes attractive valuation of 4.4x projected sales at planned capacity vs. 4.9x for rival Evergreen Solar (ESLR) and 6.2x for SunPower (SPWR). Yet firm says that ENER's Unisolar division is producing at higher volumes than ESLR or SPWR and at 20% gross margins, vs. 10% for ESLR and 13% for SPWR. Firm says ENER is on track to reach its goal of sustainable profitability by 1Q07; adds that shares should benefit from developing near-term catalysts including additional very large scale solar PV wins in California, additional solar PV joint venture partnerships, incremental third party R&D funding contracts, and announcements of new licensees.

support on the chart is impt when considering entry on this one...the multiple tests of support are great, but one must think about risk of a retest if not already long this one. I am already long this one, but am not adding until a move over the 35-36 out the 8/34 ema cross and 21/34 ema cross structures, and note the recent move above the 50 ema/sma's.


07:26 TASR TASER receives notice from U.S. S.E.C; no enforcement action recommended for accounting and medical safety issues (6.12 -0.02)

Co announces it has been advised by the Staff of the Division of Enforcement of the S.E.C that the Staff has completed the previously announced investigation into TASER International's disclosures concerning the medical safety of the TASER device; and certain accounting and disclosure issues. The Staff further advised that it has determined that at the present time it will not recommend that the Commission institute any enforcement proceedings as to any of these matters. The Staff also advised the Company that it is continuing to investigate issues relating to trading in the Company's stock. (Note: Company currently trades under TASRE.

07:17 Early Research Calls VI

Morgan Stanley downgrades Expeditors (EXPD 68.83) to Underweight from Equal-weight due to its high relative valuation... SunTrust downgrades Dress Barn (DBRN) to Neutral from Buy on valuation... Citigroup downgrades Nucor (NUE 67.04) to Hold from Buy... Citigroup downgrades U.S. Steel (X 47.87)to Hold from Buy...


Krispy Kreme guides for Q3; announces further adjustments (KKD) 5.92 : Co sees FY06 Q3 revs of approximately $130 mln vs $170 mln in Q3 2005. Co expects to report a net loss per share for Q3 vs loss of $0.03 consensus. The Company announced that it has identified further adjustments to its financial statements in addition to those previously disclosed. The Company now estimates that the cumulative effect of the adjustments to be made to previously issued financial statements will decrease pre-tax income for periods through the third quarter of fiscal 2005 by an estimated $35.1 million.

06:21 KKD Krispy Kreme sees bigger impact - Reuters (5.92 )

Reuters reports that Krispy Kreme on Monday said adjustments to its financial statements from 2001 through most of 2005 would reduce earnings by $35.1 million, an increase from the company's previous estimate. The company also said it would delay filing its third- quarter results with regulators, but expected to post a net loss for the period due to high legal and other costs, as well as a fall-off in sales at its doughnut shops. Krispy Kreme, which is the target of a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission probe into its accounting, in August forecast that restatements would cut earnings by about $25.6 million. The doughnut chain disclosed the change in a regulatory filing late on Monday. Krispy Kreme has not filed any financial statements since late 2004. The company's restatement stems from errors in the way it accounted for the repurchase of some franchises. The Winston-Salem, North Carolina doughnut maker is also struggling with a fall-off in sales. In Monday's filing, Krispy Kreme said sales in the quarter ended October 30 were roughly $130 million, down from about $170 million the previous year.


Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon


TW Member
Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #3 
Wednesday -

first posted here a few weeks ago in the daily momentum stock updates
the breakout was when the $2.08 high was taken out
note the PnF chart in this gallery view
tested support at $12 area today
news of note offering
retested the price range of recent daily lows
note the downtrend line on the PnF that is being tested
new high today and closed in the red...testing minor support
approaching initial support near 35
selloff followed 12/7 earnings:

Vail Resorts beats on narrower than expected loss, reaffirms FY06 EBITDA, net income guidance (MTN) 37.26 : Reports Q1 (Oct) loss of $0.90 per share, excluding stock based compensation expense, $0.05 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.95); revenues fell 12.8% year/year to $85.4 mln vs the $84.1 mln consensus. Co reaffirms FY06 (July) reported EBITDA and net income guidance, sees Mountain Reported EBITDA of $165-175 mln, Lodging Reported EBITDA of $8-$15 mln, Resort Reported EBITDA of $175-185 mln, Real Estate Reported EBITDA of $5-10 mln, and net income of $34-43 mln.
continues to test the recent swing high
testing recent daily high


quote from Ted Burge tonight:

Dec 14th AND NOT ONLY RESISTANCE AT THE TARGETS BUT THE MOMENTUM OF MOVEMENT TO X'S WAS A TIE ONCE AGAIN. X's and O's were virtually tied at 81 to X's and 87 O's with 36 buy signals and 12 sell signals at the end of the day (wednesday).

The targets are simply awesome and there is little question that time is not a factor. If resistance is not broken soon the song won't be 'Santa Claus is coming to town' it will be 'SNATA CLAUSE IS DEAD'.


12:11 -
CYBX up $4 and above the 200 ema of 33.05..note the mid-Sept bearish gap resist above.----34.35-.77

12:05 Floor Talk: Energy

It's been a morning that was largely dictated by weather, despite the stats. Traders we spoke w/ seem like they don't want to trade from the short side with cold weather; they note there is a lot fund buying in heat today again; they say natty held $14.50 and that gave traders a green light to buy on the dip.

09:27 BEAV BE Aerospace initiated with a Buy at Soleil; tgt $29 (7.01 )

Soleil initiates BEAV with a Buy and $29 tgt. Firm likes BEAV based on: 1) strong overall airline traffic results, 2) strong demand already from international carriers, 3) the likelihood that US airlines are going to have to place orders as well, and 4) improving underlying fundamentals (driven by both volume and margin expansion).

08:50 Harris Nesbitt recommends swapping into manufactured home REITs

Harris Nesbitt recommends swapping into manufactured home REITs, one of the cheapest (14.4X 2006 consensus AFFO) and worst performing (5.2% YTD total return vs. 12.9% wtd avg) sectors of 2005. They believe the long anticipated rise in mortgage interest rates, the ongoing workout of repossessions, and the gradual return of chattel financing will positively affect the sector's bottom line in 2006. Firm names ARC, SUI, ELS and ANL.

8:29 AAPL
in premkt testing recent lows of 12/8...see mention below.

08:27 CDIS Cal Dive tgt upped to $53 at Fortis Bank (38.74 )

Fortis Bank raises their CDIS tgt to $53 from $33 as they believe investors are underestimating the co's earnings and growth potential. They believe mgmt's 2006 guidance is likely to come out over the next few weeks, and expect them to be fairly conservative and give numbers below their forecasts. However, they believe that even their assumptions on both commodity prices and Marine Contracting margins may prove too conservative.

08:18 EFII Elec For Imaging tgt upped to $32 from $30 at Oppenheimer (27.36 )

Oppenheimer raises their EFII tgt to $32 from $30 to reflect increased Q4 and 2006 ests, based on a strong product pipeline, improving operating margins in 4Q05 & throughout 2006.

06:28 Nikkei posts biggest loss in 2 months - Reuters

Reuters reports that the Nikkei average booked its biggest loss in over two months on Wednesday, falling 1.99% as investors sold JFE Holdings and other steel shares due to concern they had risen too quickly. A weaker than expected reading in the Bank of Japan's tankan business confidence survey also helped push investors to take profits, while exporters such as Sony lost ground after the dollar slid to a two-week low versus the yen. The Nikkei finished the day down 314.28 points at 15,464.58, snapping a three-day winning streak and booking its biggest one-day fall since early October.


08:58 AAPL Apple Computer: BofA Sec downgrade details (74.98 ) -Update-

Firm cut AAPL to Neutral from Buy. While still likes the story, the recent run-up of over 50% in the last six weeks has left firm less comfortable recommending putting new money to work. Firm's call is about risk/reward, and BofA sees possible upside to the $80 level and downside to the mid-$60s, meaning equal risk/ reward.
06:24 Early Research Calls VI

Bear Stearns downgrades Apple (AAPL 74.98) to Peer Perform from Outperform on valuation...


06:20 Early Research Calls III

FTN Midwest Securities upgrades Red Hat (RHAT 24.34) to Buy from Neutral and $37 tgt, as they see emerging secular growth trends and strong fundamentals... Citigroup initiates Timberland (TBL 32.08) with a Sell and $29 tgt, as they believe the co could be missing significant growth opportunities by not expanding its business into the moderate or mass merchant channel or into women's apparel in the U.S... UBS initiates Playboy (PLA 13.52) with a Buy and $17.50 tgt, as they believe the improving fundamentals, including growth in the Licensing and Entertainment businesses, more than offset continued losses at Publishing... JP Morgan upgrades Teekay LNG Partners (TGP 28.18) to Overweight from Neutral with $37 tgt, as they believe the acquisition of three tankers from Teekay Shipping (TK) will provide the near-term cash distribution increase that was previously lacking.


Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon


TW Member
Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #4 
Thursday -

The PnF shows the pattern of bottoms above bottoms and rising highs has been consistent since 2003 (the Point and Figure chart also shows that the majority of the 3-year trading volume is between $7-13.50)

Analyst Estimates for:
Earnings Est         Current Qtr

Dec-05 Next Qtr Mar-06 Current Year Dec-05 Next YearDec-06
Avg. Estimate         0.06         0.17         0.30         0.78
No. of Analysts         1         1         2         2
Low Estimate         0.06         0.17         0.30         0.70
High Estimate         0.06         0.17         0.31         0.86
Year Ago EPS         0.08         0.11         0.28         0.30

link to the co. website -

article (the company profile is toward the end and it is worth a read) -

this is one of the other companies that is controlled by the Lundin Group of Companies and is also publicly traded:
note the constructive pattern on the weekly chart
there are some risks visible in the daily chart....note the proximity and direction of movement of the 50 sma toward the 200 sma, though the pattern in recent weeks of bottoms above bottoms and rising highs is constructive.

quick fact sheet about IUC -


18:42  NILE Cramer is bullish on Blue Nile -Update-

Jim says that the stock is expensive, but the growth that the co has shown makes it worthy of the lofty price.  While many of its competitors have to carry and sell their own inventories, NILE has no inventory of its own because they have exclusive deals with many major diamond manufacturers. Jim believes that they are becoming America's jeweler.


NGAS has moved above the 12.50 late intraday resistance area from yesterday, and held yesterday's low so far as of 10:36 ET.

10:30 Natural Gas Inventory fell 202 bcf to 2964 bcf, analysts were expecting a fall of 167 bcf, ranging from a fall of 152-200 bcf

10:21 Gold makes huge reversal off lows; Feb now unch at $509.50 after getting down to a low of $503


new 52 week highs today as of 9:50 et -

SVL - note as of yesterday the distance from price candle to the daily PSAR buy line is decreasing...the daily lows are trending to consolidate in a closer pattern and not as steep as late November....that may be a healthy sign for the move up but also means the test of the PSAR buy is recently growing.

later - GOL


SFCC - tested $22 resist in the Premkt -

08:54 SFCC SFBC Intl on Guidance Call: co says they have lost only one client as a result of Bloomberg articles (17.66 )

having trouble moving above $15 resistance for two days now.

SNDK - unfilled gap is above the 50 sma where today's advance is having trouble......this could be interesting....

note the positive 5/21 ema crossover and the 8/34 ema structure

SNDK hiba/FlashVision Process Appears Behind Schedule At 55nm - ThinkEquity (51.23 ) -Update-

ThinkEquity notes they had the opportunity to meet with a number of contacts in Japan with insight into Toshiba's process technology roadmap at their Yokkaichi fabs. In general, processes already ramping are on track, but new technologies are a bit slower than expected. The firm notes they are behind solidifying process at 55nm. This was supposed to be locked down in September and doesn't appear to be close. This may push out revenues from this process until 1H2007. The firm reiterates its estimates and price target remains at $60. The firm expects this quarter to be strong; but, while they still love the NAND market, they believe SNDK's position as the premier company in this space has slightly come into question. Valuation is not quite as attractive as it has been in the past. There is also litigation headline risk for SNDK (even though we believe SNDK has strong patent protection). The firm still believe that SNDK will significantly outgrow the overall semiconductor market, and are still buyers, but at these levels they are not as aggressive as we have been in the past.

07:46 SNDK SanDisk upgrade details (51.23 )

Citigroup upgrades SNDK to Buy from Hold and raises their tgt to $69 from $57, as they now have greater confidence that strong NAND demand will press supply capabilities despite new players such as Hynix and INTC/MU growing market share. Firm believes that vertically-integrated product players such as SNDK will benefit by taking share in memory card and USB drive, strenghtening its price-setter position, growing internationally, and expanding its MLC-based royalty stream.

07:25 DOC Digital Angel receives order for 1.1 mln visual identification tags from Smithfield Foods in Poland (3.37 )

Co announces it has received a purchase order from Smithfield Foods, the world's largest pork producer, for 1.1 mln visual ear identification tags for Smithfield's swine operations in Poland. The first shipments of the visual tags to Smithfield began this month and the remainder will be shipped on a monthly basis. The order calls for the co's Denmark-based subsidiary, Daploma International, to deliver the tags to the various farms Smithfield owns and operates throughout Poland. Digital Angel is working with PPA POLNET, Poland's largest tag distributor, on the Smithfield account.


Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon


TW Member
Posts: 8,872
Reply with quote  #5 
Friday -

for analysis guidance going forward, note the lower boundary of the upsloping channel on the daily over the last year or two.

Note price behavior in past December/January's after the strong rally each year.

Take note of similar data for CCJ, DEN.TO, IUC.TO, and LAM.V or other uranium producers/explorers.

LAM.V - this is why it is wise to buy channel support or some other support on pullbacks...note price on 12/7 when this news was released:

Nov news -

more charts for stocks above:
note price moving up to the 200 sma today
a good example of buying channel support


16:39 GOOG Google nears deal with AOL - AP -Update-

Time Warner Inc. is negotiating exclusively with Google to broaden a lucrative advertising partnership with Time Warner's America Online (AOL) unit, abruptly ending negotiations early Friday with Microsoft (MSFT), officials close to the negotiations said. Google will highlight Time Warner Web properties as sponsored links and AOL will continue to provide Google's search engine to its own subscribers. Officials described the negotiations on condition of anonymity, because no agreement has yet been formalized. AOL accounted for about $420 mln, or 10 %, of Google's revs during the first nine months of this year, according to regulatory filings. Most of the $420 mln came from the ads Google distributes on AOL's Web site.

16:06 LNG Cheniere Energy Receives Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Authorization to Commence Initial Construction on Corpus Christi LNG Receiving Terminal

Co reports that its wholly-owned limited partnership, Corpus Christi LNG, L.P., has received regulatory clearance to commence initial construction of its 2.6 billion cubic feet per day liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving terminal near Corpus Christi, Texas. The authorization granted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is pursuant to and in accordance with the FERC's April 18, 2005 Order Granting Authority under Section 3 of the Natural Gas Act and Issuing Certificates.

16:00 AX Archipelago: NYSE begins pilot program of hybrid market model - DJ (51.00 -1.30)


15:43 Weekly Losers List

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include: OSUR -37%, ENCY -37%, CUTR -34%, SFCC -31%, PDSN -31%, KOSP -29%, TRCA -28%, MELA -26%, OIIM -24%, FOXH -23%, CAMD -23%, QDEL -22%, BDY -22%, ANR -22%, CHDX -21%, NGS -19%, PIR -19%, PTEK -18%, DSWL -18%, GNSS -18%, PAL -17%

15:39 RIMM Research In Motion: Patent office rejects 3rd NTP patent in non final action - DJ (62.66 -2.07) -Update-

15:39 Weekly Gainers List

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: NMGC +100%, MYOG 59%, SUF +53%, ABGX +52%, EVST +43%, PUMP +34%, VOCLD +33%, ANT +31%, CFSI +30%, PLB +29%, ARNA +27%, COBR +26%, WPCS +26%, DIOD +26%, GROW +24%, SIFY +24%, AFCE +23%, SRVY +22%, SNDK +21%, RZ +21%, CEGE +20%

15:37 Point Gainers List

Issues posting the largest gains on a point basis include: GOOG +7.46, PUMP +5.79, SMSC +4.47, DRI +4.13, ADBE +3.75, ITT +3.57, MSTR +3.19, CERN +2.81, CBE +2.79, PRX +2.74, SNDK +2.16, COGT +2.04, MYOG +2.00, PLB +1.94, SPWR +1.92, FDP +1.88, GOL +1.85, CAH +1.75, COO +1.75, NILE +1.69, AMED +1.63, APSN +1.51.

15:34 Point Losers List: Energy

Stocks pacing the way on a point basis include: SCHL -3.88, BTU -3.32, EOG -3.10, SFCC -2.95, OSUR -2.92, BCSI -2.88, BBH -2.66, HANS -2.64, OIH -2.50, ACL -2.42, UPL -2.41, RIMM -2.32, ATW -2.24, SUN -2.14, CCL -2.10, SHLD -2.09, APOL -1.97, CAMD -1.96, NCX -1.96, DEIX -1.92, ECA -1.90, RCL -1.90, KMG -1.80, OXY -1.80, DVN -1.79.

15:01 SFCC SFBC Intl downgraded to Hold at Stanford (13.00 -2.78) -Update-

Stanford downgrades SFCC to Hold from Buy, as they believe that until the co proves its businesses has stabilized (likely taking several quarters) and makes public changes that suggest its leadership ranks are prepared to deal with crisis situations effectively, the stock will not recover materially from current levels.


may want to set a price alert for a potential future PnF breakout when the IPO high is taken out, if any.

note the constructive structure of the two ema's and that both are pointing up. This is a low volume trader.

minimum risk is to the $23 bullish support line on the PnF

note the price range during the early IPO days where the majority of historical trading volume resides.


14:00 ENER -

note hourly and daily resistance being tested....the high of 35.75 9 am candle of 11/04...this is the highest level since that date.

note the upsloping channel on the weekly for targets & resist...note the recent downsloping channel on the daily was broken to the upside...note price trend relative to the ma's

PnF breakout alert is in play as of today...keep in mind many breakouts is a sampling record of those that failed and continued from breakouts in the May-Sept timeframe:


13:50 -

ADBE up 12% from the 52-wk high

JBLU up 5% from open gainer from the open of the airlines on my esignal
GOL these three have new 52wk highs

TSCM new 52 wk hi....up 4% from open
MYOG up 7.87% from 52wk hi

12:14 Market Internals

The Dow is up 0.28% to 10913, the S&P is up 0.06% to 1272, and the Nasdaq is down 0.12% to 2258. Leading sectors include: Application Software +3.9%, Steel +2.3%, Metal/Glass Containers +1.9%, Diversified Metals/Mining +1.8%, and Food Retail +1.7%. Lagging sectors include: Education Services -3.2%, Fertilizers/Agricultural Chem -2.2%, Oil/Gas Refining/Marketing -2.0%, Hotels -1.8%, and Tires/Rubber -1.7%.


16:26 - eod esignal shows a daily PSAR and macd sell for DO.

thoughts from midafternoon -

DO - note the 12/8 low of 68.17....note the lower channel line of the upsloping daily channel

note support on the hourly near where today's low resides....I have covered short having added all day. Short now later maybe.

anyone see a H&S pattern tracing out on the hourly? Note the neckline.

Value of daily PSAR buy is 68.72...first round of short covering hit that mark...note daily macd buy about to go bearish. PSAR close to going to a daily sell but not there yet.

Has been on a daily macd and PSAR buy since 11/22 or so. macd earlier


Ted Burge charts depicting energy selloff at resistance, XLE closed below the 51.25 support area which was also tested as early as Monday 12/5....

XLE closed down at the 20 sma today.

13:20 Crude oil slips to new session low, now 58.40 -1.59

12:17 Floor Talk: Energy

It is a lazy Friday afternoon on the NYMEX according to our contacts; a lack of volume and talk of warmer weather upcoming for the Northeast has pulled down the entire energy complex. Heating oil is leading the charge lower and crude is back comfortably below $60.

11:41 Selling in crude oil accelerates, now 58.60 -1.39 -Technical-


11:20         CLF Cleveland-Cliffs - - Relative Strengh (92.26 +2.42) -Technical-

The stock display RS among the Steel stocks as it runs above yesterday's high of 91.40 towards minor resistance at 92.13/92.22.

10:35 Additional Steel Color; other plays on STLD guidance

With Steel Dynamics guiding higher, we thought we'd share a few thoughts. As with most commodity markets, when one guides higher, it's likely others will be following suit. We note that STLD is the first of the producers to guide higher for Q4. What we find most positive is that STLD credited a number of areas seeing strength: the Flat Roll Division (much of this is for auto which is good news for high auto-exposure names like AKS, X); increased demand in the non-residential construction market (good news for co's with exposure there: note; this is also good news for CHAP). Other producers to watch: NUE, IPS, OS, WPSC... Also, watch for interest in the steel processors, which buy steel form the mills then process them further etc: JOR, ROCK, RS, RT, TONS, ZEUS.

CLF - esignal shows hourly PSAR buy on the volume and price spike near the open...

The hourly PSAR sell has been in effect since 12/9 15:00 candle....daily PSAR sell since 12/7.

from 12/13 -

U.S. Steel: Barron's editor on CNBC says X could be worth $100 (X) 47.60 -0.27: Barrons editor notes the 9% short interest in X, which is a bet that co will suffer from crash in steel prices. He says if you compare X to what Dofasco bid was valued it per ton of production, he said X would be worth $100. Says X is quite cheap. The fear is that X could go out and do something unwanted, like make an acquisition itself. Also notes that co owns its own iron ore business, says CLF chart is evidence that this has value.

10/26 most recent report in Jan -

Cleveland-Cliffs beats by $0.28, beats on revs (CLF) 81.37 -0.05: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $3.07 per share, $0.28 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $2.79; revenues rose 48.5% year/year to $514.1 mln vs the $464.9 mln consensus. Co stated, "We are gratified with our continuing record performance; however, as we begin to look forward to 2006, we are concerned about the rising costs of much of our purchased energy and materials. While PPI escalation factors in our North American sales contracts will recover some of the expected inflation, we will need to have continued levels of solid steel pricing and an improved international iron ore price in order to maintain our sales margins."

discussed here last night in the chat at this site...see the 20:32 time stamp -

note the fibonacci retrace % represented by the most recent low (for those not familiar with fib -

Here is a post I made elsewhere on Jan 26th that highlights why it is important to monitor bullish triangle Point and Figure chart pattern breakouts which can be accomplished using this link....scroll to bottom once the link is opened:

Jan 26th post:

here is article summary from, see price charts for RIO, RTP, CLF - all make iron pellets, and BHP, which is the world's largest diversified resources co.

Note the PnF for CLF signaled the most reliable breakout pattern last week - a breakout from a bullish triangle pattern.

note that BHP is also a major supplier of metallurgical coal...this aspect of the story has been long known.

07:25 Steelmaker's global suppliers push for sharp price increase - WSJ

According to the WSJ, the world's producers of the raw materials used to make steel are seeking sharp price increases this year, potentially putting upward pressure on steel prices and adding to the cost of making everything from cars to appliances. Suppliers of iron ore and coking coal currently are negotiating with steelmakers over contract prices covering the rest of the year. The price of iron ore, the main ingredient used to make steel, is expected to rise between 30% and 50% in major international contracts in 2005, according to industry analysts and consultants. The per-ton price of iron ore is expected to rise to between $30 and $57, from levels ranging from $23 to $38 in 2004, depending on grade and type. Some mining co's are seeking more. Last week, Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce SA (RIO), confirmed it was seeking a 90% increase in 2005 from some steelmakers, including Arcelor, which calls the increase "absurd." Meanwhile, prices for coking coal, metallurgical coal that is later purified in an oven into coke, a hard carbon used in melting iron in the blast furnace, are set to double to between $120 and $130 a metric ton from 2004 levels of $55 a metric ton.


is testing support near $12 area in the premkt on energy prices moving down into the weekend so far....see below

08:09 Oppenheimer initiates select U.S. Oil Service and Equipment companies with Buys

Oppenheimer initiates GLBL, HC, NR, PDE, RIG, SII and UCO with Buys. Firm says the amount of dollars spent by E&P cos is the ultimate driver of earnings growth for oil service cos, and they expect capital spending to be up roughly 15%-20% in 2006 versus 2005. Firm also believes they are in the early stage of a sustained multi-year recovery in the oil services industry. While the stocks have risen appreciably from their lows and are approaching new highs, they believe the recovery still has a long way to run.

16:00 note the support for GLBL on the daily held near the $12 area ( see analyst comment above):

07:19 OXY Occidental Petro initiated with a Buy at BofA; $94 tgt (83.62 )

BofA initiates OXY with a Buy and a $94.00 tgt saying OXY ranks 6th out of 27 E&P companies in their Best Positioned Index based on overall returns, organic production growth, and free cash flow yield through 2009. Firm says the co has posted, and they believe will continue to deliver, among the best returns in our E&P coverage group. Firm says it should post aboveaverage organic production growth over the next five years, underscored primarily by its Middle East operations and Argentina (gained in the recent acquisition of Vintage Petroleum).

08:59 Commodity Summary

Energy complex trading off access lows across the board; Jan natural gas is $13.44mbtu, off 34 cents (access range is 13.28 to 13.815); Jan crude oil is $59.53 off 36 cents (59.43 to 60.09). We note that the selling in energy has been primarily related to expected warmer weather in the Northeast near Christmas. Yesterday we noted that we were hearing that the 11-15 day weather forecast was calling for warmer than normal weather. Jan heating oil is called nearly 2 cents lower to $1.77/gal; Jan heating oil (HO) cracks fell 1.56 yesterday to 15.08; Jan unleaded gas is called 1.63 cents lower to $1.6005/gal (access range is 1.5981 to 1.6170); March gas cracks ended Thursday's session down 55 cents to 11.75. OPEC raising demand forecasts not seen as that bullish b/c the amount raised wasn't substantial.


10:08 MSTR MicroStrategy up over 5% approaches its 2005 high at 82.05 (81.96 +4.34) -Update-

07:59 MSTR MicroStrategy tgt raised to $100 from $85 at Roth Capital (77.62 )


07:27 AUO AU Optronics: No demand slowdown expected next quarter for LCD TVs - Digitimes (13.45 )

Digitimes reports it is unlikely that a massive panel oversupply will occur in the first quarter of next year, as strong demand for LCD TVs will persist and there are fewer working days during the period, said Hsiung Hui, vice president of AUO. Sales of LCD TVs are expected to remain at the same levels as this quarter, Hsiung said. And even if demand shows signs of weakening next quarter, the influence will not be significant, as current LCD TV inventories are lower than normal levels, Hsiung added. However, Hsiung reiterated that there are still no signs that demand will dip next quarter.

07:11 Early Research Calls V

CSFB upgrades Washington REIT (WRE 30.95) to Outperform from Neutral and raises tgt to $33.90 from $29... BofA initiates (CRM 35.20) with a Neutral and $34 tgt, saying they believe the co will continue to grow profitably and remain the early standard-bearer of the software-as-aservice trend, but that these attributes appear to be reflected in the current valuation... Thomas Weisel initiates Texas Roadhouse (TXRH 15.44) with an Outperform as they believe the co is poised to be one of the best high-return/high-growth stories in casual dining over the next five years; they see fair value at 18.55...

06:25 Early Research Calls III

BofA initiates Business Objects (BOBJ 39.64) with a Buy and $48 tgt, citing continued strong secular demand for business intelligence solutions and a trend toward consolidation of IT spending among fewer vendors... BofA intiates Cimarex (XEC 42.16) with a Buy and $50 tgt, citing double digit organic growth and conventional exploration upside... BofA initiates Southwestern Energy (SWN 36.27) with a Buy and $46 tgt, as they believe the co is well positioned to deliver among the highest returns and organic growth in the firm's E&P coverage group over the next five years... Harris Nesbitt initiates Equitable Resources (EQT 39.05) with an Outperform and $45 tgt, as they believe the co has meaningful reserves and production upside... Jefferies downgrades NSTAR (NST 29.53) to Hold from Buy on valuation... BofA initiates Autodesk (ADSK 42.89) with a Buy and $50 tgt, as they believe they remain at the center of a number of early phase growth drivers, highlighted by a multi-year 3D product cycle... Jefferies downgrades OraSure Technologies (OSUR 11.37) to Underperform from Hold as another clinic is removing the co's rapid oral-based HIV test... BofA initiates Cognos (COGN 33.53) with a Buy and $39 tgt, as they anticipate the co's Cognos 8.0 product cycle will drive improving revenue and pro forma EPS performance... JP Morgan downgrades XM Satellite (XMSR 30.95) to Neutral from Overweight and cuts their ests, as they believe that its narrowing sub growth lead over Sirius (SIRI) and expense risk will limit upside in the stock in 2006.


Being honest may not get you a lot of friends, but it'll always get you the right ones. - John Lennon

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