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hiker

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Reply with quote  #1 
HW - target entry zone at this week's lows...this is now a construction materials play, as well as an energy play, because of the fly ash they make for cement mfg...and the building stone they make...both of which will be required in qty for rebuilding the South.

at 13:00 et - esignal shows hourly PSAR buy value at $30.55 and daily PSAR sell value at 35.08...these values may help with entries, exits, and trade management.

The coal component may hurt price action ST if that sector is brought down by falling crude prices if the 2-yr trendline for crude is broken to the downside.

HW also has a clean-coal aspect to the trade.

Minimum risk is to $27.50 to 29 area...ideal entry (stop management) is on test of the bullish support line. Swing trade exit near 35-36. $42 area is very strong resistance. See below

See chart for the entry zone at the $30 area...Thursday's and today's low are just above $30.00:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/gv?hw

also, ck the trendlines on the 5-yr chart for risk assessment...and ck the fib retrace from the late 2003 swing low.

my post at this site in another thread on 9/30 -

HW - technically, it needs to overcome the very recent pattern of declining tops to have legs above approx $42....some fundys from a 9/23 article summary (Nov 10 premkt is the unconfirmed date for earnings rel):

BusinessWeek (HW) 35.99 : According to BusinessWeek, Headwaters, which used to be only an energy play, but lately its construction-materials business has been catching the eye of investors. Zacks Investment Research, for one, tags Headwaters a buy in good part b/c of the expected leap in demand for construction materials to cope with the havoc wrought by Hurricane Katrina. Mario Ricchio of Zacks sees Headwaters as a "niche producer" of two key materials: fly ash and manufactured stones. The proportion of fly ash as a binding material in concrete has been rising, he notes, b/c it increases its structural strength. Headwaters' fundamentals are "extremely positive," says Ricchio. He forecasts earnings of $2.23 a share in F05 on revs of $1.05bn, rising to $2.67 in F06 on revs of $1.16bn. Another bull on Headwaters is Richard Steinberg, of Steinberg Global Asset Mgmt. He sees it as a little-known and undervalued play. In addition to building materials, Headwaters is also in the business of converting coal and heavy oil into liquid fuels that are used by power generation plants to comply with environmental standards. The energy business accounts for 35% of total revs, while construction materials are expected to bring in about 50% this year. Industrial services provide the remainder. Steinbergs price target is 48.

stats:

Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month)3:696,276
Average Volume (10 day)3:869,889
Shares Outstanding:41.56M
Float:N/A
% Held by Insiders4:2.68%
% Held by Institutions4:83.20%
Shares Short (as of 12-Sep-05)3:4.64M
Short Ratio (as of 12-Sep-05)3:6.2
Short % of Float (as of 12-Sep-05)3:11.50%
Shares Short (prior month)3:4.17M

profile:

Headwaters Incorporated provides products, technologies, and services to the energy, construction, and home improvement industries in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Construction Materials, Coal Combustion Products (CCP), and Alternative Energy. The Construction Materials segment develops, manufactures, and distributes bagged concrete, stucco, mortar, and blocks products that utilize fly ash, as well as stone and expanded concrete block products. It also offers building products used in exterior residential home improvement and construction. The CCP segment markets coal combustion products, such as fly ash and bottom ash to the building products and ready mix concrete industries. The company markets CCPs to replace manufactured or mined materials, such as portland cement, lime, agricultural gypsum, fired lightweight aggregate, granite aggregate, and limestone. The Alternative Energy segment includes Headwaters’ coal-based solid alternative fuels business; and develops catalyst technologies to convert coal and heavy oil into liquid fuels, as well as nanocatalyst processes and applications. The company was incorporated in 1995 under the name Covol Technologies, Inc. and changed its name to Headwaters Incorporated in 2000. Headwaters Incorporated is headquartered in South Jordan, Utah.
-----------------

article:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/050928/112794080923.html?.v=2


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #2 
news item from 10/11 -

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051011/115295.html?.v=1

from 10/10 -

Headwaters acquires assets of Max Manufacturing & Roofing, maker of synthetic roofing tiles; no terms (HW) 33.78 -1.32:

from 9/6 -

Headwaters CEO on CNBC says its technology adds more value out of each barrel of heavy oil; should add to oil availability in US (HW) 39.19 +1.67: Says co's technology can convert 70-80% of a barrel of heavy oil to lighter materials (vs ~ 50% now). Getting lots of interest from co's in sector. Commercializing several different technologies from coal, such as clean coal as well as making liquid out of coal. Provision in energy bill should be very helpful to constructing Coal-to-Liquid facilities. Largest manager and marketer of flyash, which can replace cement. Reaffirms annual guidance of $2.20-$2.30 guidance.

from 8/22 -

Headwaters signs two license agreements to construct Coal-to-Liquids demonstration plants (HW) 39.01 +1.36: Co announces that its Headwaters Technology Innovation Group (HTIG) subsidiary has completed two license agreements for construction of direct and indirect coal-to-liquids demonstration plants. The proposed project is to build two 30,000 ton per year demonstration coal-to-liquids (CTL) plants in Inner Mongolia, China. The indirect CTL plant will be built first and will include a coal gasifier and a Fischer-Tropsch plant. UK RACE Investment Limited (RACE) will invest the $40 mln needed to design and build the ICL plant. In addition to the license fees, HTIG will be paid for the process design of the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis portion of the demo plant.

from 8/9 -

Headwaters announces Coal-to-Liquids agreements (HW) 42.76 +0..15: Co announced today that it has completed two non-binding Memoranda of Understanding linked to potential coal-to-liquid fuels projects in Arizona and North Dakota. Each MOU anticipates HW will act as the principal developer of an indirect coal liquefaction plant that will produce approximately 10,000 barrels per day of ultra-clean diesel and other liquid fuels, as well as electricity from an IGCC power station. Plant expansions could increase output up to 50,000 barrels per day of liquid fuel production. The other parties to the MOUs will participate as equity partners in the project development and will contribute coal resources sufficient to serve the lives of the respective plants. Headwaters estimates that design and construction of a facility, including the permitting, will take between five and seven years.


from 7/28 -

Headwaters tgt raised to $47 from $42 at Wedbush after co beats and raises guidance (HW) 41.85 : Firm comments that co's new technologies appear to be gaining traction. Firm's $47 price target implies that HW should trade at 17.4x/15.2x Wedbush's revised FY06/FY07 EPS estimates of $2.70/$3.07.

from 7/27 -

Headwaters beats by $0.14, ex items; raises FY05 guidance (HW) 37.50 : Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $0.78 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.64; revenues rose 129.8% year/year to $308.7 mln vs the $270.3 mln consensus. Co raises guidance for FY05, to EPS of $2.20-2.30 from $2.00-2.10 vs. $2.09 consensus.

from 5/27 -

Headwaters repays $50 mln of debt (HW) 32.36 : HW repays $50 mln of senior secured second lien debt reducing future interest expense by as much as $4.2 mln per year.

from 4/21 -

Headwaters beats by $0.04, reaffirms Y05 guidance (HW) 29.80 : Reports Q2 (Mar) earnings of $0.30 per share, $0.04 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.26; revenues rose 86.1% year/year to $222.4 mln vs the $198.9 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY05, reaffirms $2.00-2.10 vs. $2.05 consensus.

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Doug

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Reply with quote  #3 

Greetings hiker,

here is a pattern view of hw, showing a triangle breakdown and lower target of that triangle. Also showing a bounce now off of the bearflag breakdown target. just a fyi, fwiw chart...

cheers and thanks for all your posts....



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Charts are my opinion only and not a recomendation to buy or sell. I am long or short and flip
at any given moment....do your own dd. cheers!
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hiker

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Reply with quote  #4 
thanks, Doug. Yes - $19-26 looks like a much better entry zone. We'll see where the market action takes this one. I am not looking to swing trade it, but am going for a core position entry....have been short since the series of declining tops was confirmed and covered the short here.

If this long entry near the support trendline fails, will try again lower.

I believe it is important to act prior to a potential upward guidance revision, which may come in the next earnings release or sooner.... Nov 10 premarket is the unconfirmed date for the earnings release per briefing.com:

Thursday, November 10
Before The Open Actual
Reuters / Zacks Yr Ago
Actual Rev Reuters Rev Yr/Yr Rev


Headwaters HW

0.80 / 0.81 0.67

307.41
------------------

Link to the #2 rating Zacks Investment Research assigns HW -

http://www.zacks.com/research/report.php?PHPSESSID=230ea8041320e1f3e3cebb9d07686588&t=hw&type=main&pd=1&x=0&y=0

Company overview from the HW website, with a good visual snapshot of growth stats:

http://www.hdwtrs.com/nir/index.asp

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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #5 
New hurricane in the gulf should help your cause here.

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&article=2



I am currently in chk at 30.7 as posted on traderstalk. Bought the lower trendline but will most likely exit in the next few days.

I will re evaluate entry on a retest of the recent lows.

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Turkey

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Reply with quote  #6 
Should have said, "tropical storm" this is not a hurricane yet.

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geosing

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Reply with quote  #7 

Currently out of CCJ. So I am thinking of experimenting with HW using my drive-by TA. ABC Down move seems complete in time and price. Last Thursday a selling climax of sorts and on Friday, a doji for a Harami Cross. Sign of demand with the close in top third of the range.

 

So ... how about a Buy Stop at 32.10 for price objectives of: 33.80, 35.60 and 37.30. If filled at 32.10, stop would be at: 29.20 or thereabouts. HW is in bear territory, but looks good as a materials play and at least a good bounce from oversold condition. Will revise entry and targets if the last week's lows are taken out.

 

Doug's forecast is scary. Hopefully HW won't stop me in and then do the Doug Decline for a guaranteed loss.

 

Geo

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Doug

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Reply with quote  #8 

Geo

I have often observed nice bounces off of the target levels so its as good a place as any to get long. Also, not a bad two day pattern there. Maybe a bounce up near the triangle and kerplunk. Or if strong bull, it will just keep running.

good luck


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Charts are my opinion only and not a recomendation to buy or sell. I am long or short and flip
at any given moment....do your own dd. cheers!
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hiker

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Reply with quote  #9 
Geo - that magic zone ending at $32.10 is where traders chose to take profits today or enter short. Today's high so far is 32.09. btw, I sold all my CYBX shares today on the news, in order to reenter lower than my selling pirce. Continue to hold SYNM, ENWV.

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geosing

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Reply with quote  #10 

hiker, 32.10 indeed was the magic number. Had my buy stop at 32.20 for safety's sake. Also had a 100 share order at 32.10 - no fill luckily. Will revise if 30.39 gets taken out.

Geo

 

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geosing

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Reply with quote  #11 

Test of the lows did not reveal supply. So 30.30 may be it for now. I suspect my buy stop will be hit tomorrow, if there is follow through to today's high close. The close is higher than 3 prior closes, which is a buy signal in my book. I considered buying today, but decided to stick with my system and let them stop me in.

 

Geo

 

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geosing

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Reply with quote  #12 

No fill at 32.15 yet. Got to 32.11 a penny above my entry. So in theory, I can buy this now. Technically - higher high and higher low and mid range close. Rather neutral volume wise. Looks like sellers at the top of 31 and buyers at the bottom of 31 and 30. Opex may keep the price around the 30 strike.

 

Geo

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geosing

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Reply with quote  #13 

HW: Close, still no cigar. Inside day on lower volume. Also NR7. Likely to be some action above today's high or below the low resulting in range expansion on Monday. Looks suspiciously like a bear flag. Close near the lower third of the range.

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geosing

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Reply with quote  #14 

Finally NR7 produced a bit of a rally on expanding volume. Stopped in. First price objective is: 33.80

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geosing

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Reply with quote  #15 

10/25/05 - well, 33 produced some serious sellers of HW. Demand kept the price low at 9 DMA, which is a signal line for many short term traders. Made higher high and higher low (token one penny), but the close could have been more robust. A down day on increased flow. I was hoping for a close above 32.80m which would have my first price objective reachable in a session or two. Hard to tell if the stock is being accumulated or distributed for another leg down.

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #16 
Tuesday, 11/8

reported early today:

06:18  HW Headwaters beats by $0.15; guides FY06 in-line (33.04 

Reports Q4 (Sep) earnings of $0.95 per share, $0.15 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.80; revenues rose 58.6% year/year to $315.1 mln vs the $307.4 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY06, sees EPS of $2.60-2.75 vs. $2.66 consensus.



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geosing

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Reply with quote  #17 

Strange treatment to the earnings report. I have heard that they sell the news, but man, this was vicious. And on huge volume.

 

I wish I had closed out at 35.00+ - hit my stop at 33. Hiker, is this SOP for this stock? This is a good reminder to me as to why daytrading futures is good for my portfolio and my health.

 

Geo

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Doug

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Reply with quote  #18 

Target was hit today.....

 



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Charts are my opinion only and not a recomendation to buy or sell. I am long or short and flip
at any given moment....do your own dd. cheers!
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hiker

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Reply with quote  #19 
Geo - HW has a history of volatility at unexpected times, but my memory is not clear about how it reacts on earnings news. Btw, there had been systematic buying at 30.30-.40, so I expect profit taking at the target was perhaps in order....HW is now at first support levels on the hourly. Below is a snapshot of the coals today, tho' HW is more than coal:

SymbolPct from Yr HighLastChangeDay's RangeVolumeAvg Vol52-wk RangeShort Ratio
ACI-5.13%76.64+0.03+0.04%75.70 - 77.502,043,1001,986,96032.46 - 80.784.40
ANR-27.96%23.58-0.27-1.13%23.49 - 24.15535,100693,65221.65 - 32.732.80
ARLP-14.42%41.43+0.04+0.10%40.96 - 42.1868,114163,20327.75 - 48.411.80
BTU-6.81%80.98+1.00+1.25%79.36 - 81.981,421,8002,723,71031.55 - 86.901.80
CNX-24.50%60.26-0.29-0.48%59.75 - 61.401,500,9001,427,92035.86 - 79.812.30
FCL-7.55%36.59+0.09+0.25%35.78 - 36.89572,700614,52819.85 - 39.581.60
FDG-21.85%35.28+0.58+1.67%34.32 - 35.451,036,3001,872,39021.1233 - 45.14670.50
HW-28.24%32.83-0.21-0.64%32.54 - 35.502,315,100700,25126.31 - 45.758.50
JRCC-29.34%41.69-2.25-5.12%39.86 - 42.971,148,257146,03928.64 - 59.007.50
KFX-25.65%13.74-0.18-1.29%13.50 - 14.15447,900642,9389.31 - 18.4816.90
MEE-27.98%41.05+0.27+0.66%40.43 - 41.451,583,8002,254,75027.60 - 57.001.80
NRP-24.10%52.33-1.42-2.64%52.01 - 53.3678,30066,34546.80 - 68.955.10
PVA-9.61%55.10-0.64-1.15%54.90 - 55.6691,20085,13837.55 - 60.967.10
PVR-5.91%53.77-0.42-0.78%53.40 - 53.9730,50057,63843.32 - 57.151.30
WLB-24.72%25.3305-0.4395-1.71%25.19 - 25.5072,20042,21216.92 - 33.655.90
YZC-35.05%32.27-1.10-3.30%32.10 - 32.6425,50038,69830.70 - 49.6875N/A



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geosing

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Reply with quote  #20 

Normally I take thirds off at my targets (which I have posted here). Premarket I noticed that HW was trading at the channel top. I don't watch stocks intraday these days so I raised my stop from break-even to 33 thinking the gap close will stop any sell-off. Somewhat upset that I left so much on the table, while fighting for nickels and dimes in the futures market. Oh well.

 

Geo

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #21 
HW challenging resistance of late Sept/early Oct.

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #22 

The chart pattern is also looking better as well.

You will also note that this same September/October topping period was the double top sequence of the Sign of the Bear pattern and then the ensuing preferred results that occurred right after. So once this area of resistance is cleared, you should start to see better volume than what we have at the current time.

 

Fib

 

 

 


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #23 

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/gv?HW

today represents the highest close during this pattern of rising bottoms since the swing low of $30.30.

bullish crossover of the daily 21 ema vs. the 34 ema has been in-play since late November.

note the Bollinger Bands.

approaching resistance and potential upside target #2.


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #24 
today's high tested the $38.34 high of 10/04/05:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?hw


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