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doc

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Reply with quote  #1 

We are now 13 wks along a 20wk cycle that has been averaging 16.5-17wks and is likely due at the end of the month. This will be the 3rd 20wk low in this 80wk cycle off the Oct 2011 lows. The next 80wk low is targeted towards the end of the year, late Dec. to more likely Jan 2013 area. However, yearend and year beginning crosscurrents are notoriously strong and can influence cycle lows due in that timeframe so caution is advised.

The only downside target so far is 1385 SPX. I will post if more downside targets appear.

Obviously liquidity is not an issue with the NYAD recently making new ATHs. Volume has remained an issue (so what's new) and the other major catalysts remain the EU debt crisis, the global economic slowdown, and the tensions in the middle east escalating.

I have been treating this as a trading range and making money both long and short but taking profits quickly and limiting losses as well. There are some very good reasons while we could have a mini meltup in the coming week or so before heading down into the cycle lows. In short, I am needing to be on the correct side of short term OB or OS to even consider going home anything other than flat at the end of each day. While we have the liquidity to absorb most shocks, it may not be before appropriate stops on long positions are hit, often, right before it goes right back up with the bus lighter than before.  Just IMHO.

Trade safe.
Doc

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #2 
Thanks for the update on Hurst...yep...indecision patterns abound as you point out here and with your triangle posts - something of which we've been following on the BETS NYA chart as well.

Fib

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doc

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Reply with quote  #3 
Yes, I have been following your BETS weekly.

The next few weeks are going to be real interesting. If things suddenly turn real bearish, cycles could lengthen and the low could come in early to mid October as well. One day at a time.

Right now, I am still bullish looking long at the ETF open or soon after, till proven otherwise. Only doing bear reconnaissance missions or flights, lol.

Have a great week everyone,
Doc
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Rightfield

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Reply with quote  #4 
I am always thankful for your Hurst updates Doc and I am glad you  intend to continue updating. I agree we are at a very interesting market juncture and my guess is we resolve higher. Also many thanks fib for your comments, hope Mortiz is still around and doing well, cheers!


RF

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