Registered: 1101968123 Posts: 497
Reply with quote #1
We are now 13 wks along a 20wk cycle that has been averaging 16.5-17wks and is likely due at the end of the month. This will be the 3rd 20wk low in this 80wk cycle off the Oct 2011 lows. The next 80wk low is targeted towards the end of the year, late Dec. to more likely Jan 2013 area. However, yearend and year beginning crosscurrents are notoriously strong and can influence cycle lows due in that timeframe so caution is advised.
The only downside target so far is 1385 SPX. I will post if more downside targets appear. Obviously liquidity is not an issue with the NYAD recently making new ATHs. Volume has remained an issue (so what's new) and the other major catalysts remain the EU debt crisis, the global economic slowdown, and the tensions in the middle east escalating. I have been treating this as a trading range and making money both long and short but taking profits quickly and limiting losses as well. There are some very good reasons while we could have a mini meltup in the coming week or so before heading down into the cycle lows. In short, I am needing to be on the correct side of short term OB or OS to even consider going home anything other than flat at the end of each day. While we have the liquidity to absorb most shocks, it may not be before appropriate stops on long positions are hit, often, right before it goes right back up with the bus lighter than before. Just IMHO. Trade safe. Doc
Registered: 1101777014 Posts: 4,682
Reply with quote #2
Thanks for the update on Hurst...yep...indecision patterns abound as you point out here and with your triangle posts - something of which we've been following on the BETS NYA chart as well.
Fib __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977
Registered: 1101968123 Posts: 497
Reply with quote #3
Yes, I have been following your BETS weekly.
The next few weeks are going to be real interesting. If things suddenly turn real bearish, cycles could lengthen and the low could come in early to mid October as well. One day at a time. Right now, I am still bullish looking long at the ETF open or soon after, till proven otherwise. Only doing bear reconnaissance missions or flights, lol. Have a great week everyone, Doc
Registered: 1105421927 Posts: 178
Reply with quote #4
I am always thankful for your Hurst updates Doc and I am glad you intend to continue updating. I agree we are at a very interesting market juncture and my guess is we resolve higher. Also many thanks fib for your comments, hope Mortiz is still around and doing well, cheers!
RF __________________ All that happens is symbol, and as it represents itself perfectly, it points to the rest.----GOETHE
Money knows what money likes...and money likes to make more money.---fib_1618