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Posts: 497
Reply with quote  #1 
For a long time now the 20 week cycle has been running about 16 weeks. The 40 weeks cycle has reliably been about 32 weeks. This is best seen in the last two 40 week cycles. After a 40 week low during the week of November 12, 2012, 32 weeks later we found another 40 week low  bottom during the week of June 24, 2013. Then 32 weeks from that bottom we found the next 40 week low during the week of February 3 2014. We are now 28 weeks along this 32 weeks long 40wk nominal cycle.

The next four weeks are virtually guaranteed from a cyclical pattern to end up being lower than we are now. The first 40 week cycle I mentioned above dropped about 127 points to the June 2013 low. The last 40 week low dropped about 110 points. Now I can't guarantee that we've seen the high already for this 40 week cycle but given my belief that 2000 will serve as a stiff resistant, I predict that we will be below 1900 sometime in the next two to four weeks.

That said, I know that there are no virtual guarantees in this business and we just had a Zweig breadth thrust. Maybe this one was an exhaustion thrust and it all comes together. Or maybe we continue to power higher and the 40wk low is as muted as the 10 wk low we had in July and is a low we rise out of rather than fall into. We shall see. Times sure are getting interesting. 

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