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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
We're now getting our first sneak peak into what the "junior" market (ages 15-25) will be wearing for the upcoming fall season. Interestingly enough, the main thrust for this market segment is showing dark colors and styles reminiscent of the "Grunge" looks of the early 1990's. Something like this kind of styling and color palette would suggest that some sort of correctional period in the markets should be expected, which may include a "crash like" event.



I'm again providing the link below which is updated each Friday for those who may wish to take a quick view of things as we move along from this juncture. What's also interesting with this last weeks photos is that we're also seeing some black and white combination looks for women's wear for the first time since the 2002 lows. Taken together with the grunge looks shown above, these kind of apparel looks would suggest that this same correctional period will have many sitting on the fence as to how important it will be longer term with an "I'm not so sure about things" mindset.

In the fullness of time.

Fib



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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #2 

Fib,

 

I am not the fashion expert, but looking back at the liquidity health in the early 90s as well as 2002, as measured by the cumulative AD lines of course, money flows into the market had a different look than today.  I am not suggesting a "crash-like feel" in prices sometime in the coming year is not possible, and in fact may be welcomed for the longer term health of the market.

 

However, a look at both the NYSE composite and common AD lines over the time frames on the table (early 90s and 2002), neither time frames are historically recognized for their liquidity strength. 

 

Scary corrections can and have unfolded in times of robust liquidity, but crashes do not occur under these circumstances.  Perhaps liquidity will begin drying going forward setting the stage for a crash like event, but until then, probabilities are very low for corrections exceeding 10% for indices such as SPX and NYA (barring geopolitical crises).

 

Any thoughts on liquidity correlations with impacts of fashion trends upon the equities markets?

 

Thanks


Randy

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
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Scary corrections can and have unfolded in times of robust liquidity, but crashes do not occur under these circumstances. Perhaps liquidity will begin drying going forward setting the stage for a crash like event, but until then, probabilities are very low for corrections exceeding 10% for indices such as SPX and NYA (barring geopolitical crises).

A "crash like" event can be something on the scale of a sharp and swift correction of, let's say, 5% to 10%. Something like this isn't out of the question if we continue to see price patterns, such as the SPX, continue to move at 45 degree angles of ascent or higher.


"Crash like" events are also characteristic as we move into the top of a 3rd wave and wave 4 "comes out of the blue with no apparent warning" once the willing and unwilling buyers have finally committed funds to the market.


As far as fashions direct reflection of the masses at any particular point in time, there can be many local and geopolitical conditions that can provide the mass mood necessary for buyers of apparel to accept the styles made available at your local retail outlet in spite of the amount of liquidity in the system to absorb such potholes. And there are times in which those who decide what "is" fashion are wrong in what they forecast to be the emotional trend of the masses as well.


Looking at this weeks publication, Grunge is being pushed hard right now, but as opposed to the original showings of dark colors shown two weeks ago, we're now seeing some brighter colors with red becoming more dominant. The fashions are also becoming more layered, more sloppy, more "I don't really care what I look like, I will be accepted"....styles that are reminescent of the 1980's. Something like this would then suggest that although a "crash like" event is possible, it's not probable. But at the same time, by fall, considering everything else that we study that's market related, it could just be a period of extreme chop, a high level consolidation pattern, which could feel worse than it actually is, and this would certainly fit with what's being shown at the current time.


Fib


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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #4 
This week for fall 2007, we're starting to see more of a return to the 1980's period as we saw take place last year for the current spring season (now shipping to a retail store near you...check it out). As mentioned before, these kind of styles incorporated previous decades of fashion looks all jumbled together, but unlike spring time where pastel colors were being used, the use of bright colors for fall looks to be the logical extension to go against the grain of a time that's thought of as dark and tailored.

At this point, we're still getting mixed fashion signals for the fall trading period, but with a "everything's gonna be OK" outlook. This would continue to suggest that although a choppy period might be coming during this time period, it's more than likely going to have a positive tone to it overall (e.g. - a pause to refresh).

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #5 
Just a reminder post for the boards re-review of what was said back in early February of this year as to what was to be expected in this time period using fall fashion as a guideline.

Not a bad indicator, eh?

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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