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geosing

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Posts: 356
Reply with quote  #1 
We have a Dunnigan Buy Signal for ES (S&P Emini June 08) as of today's close. We had a P2T Preliminary Buy Signal in effect as of the close of 3/24. Today's monster thrust bar provides the buy signal to initiate the first buy. Any existing short positions have been covered at this point.

LT1 Reversal Buy at 1370 on 4/1/2008.
This Operating Plan has a profit factor of 18 handles or $900 per contract. So we have loss limit at 1352. Not an awful lot in this environment, but that is the plan.

Geo

Disclaimer: For entertainment purpose only. I do not trade ES, but I do trade this methodology


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #2 

hi and best wishes, Geo.

thanks for the info.  Let's see how this method works vs. the market timing attempt here by Fari, et al -

Notice of Change of Market Bias

http://www.hamzeianalytics.net/



 

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geosing

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Reply with quote  #3 
Thanks, Hiker. Other than occasional forays in message boards to peruse posts, I studiously avoid market opinions by experts, newsletter writers and forecasters. I avoid even message boards, if and when I am not strong enough to succumb to influences. My experience is: when I want to make a trade decision, I have to do so unhesitatingly based on my own methodology and not have any doubts or second thoughts because of opinions from other respected analysts/traders. My current quest is: Does Dunnigan One Way really work? It does work in my case. But then I filter stuff with other tools I have been using - such as market profile, median lines etc. So I am attempting to forward test the methodology, as I have taken an extended sabbatical from active daytrading.

Geo

He who knows others is wise. He who knows himself is enlightened - Lao Tzu


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geosing

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Reply with quote  #4 
Code name for this operating plan is: cobra
Profit factor is 18 handles derived as follows. We do not want to go below the maintenance level of the performance bond for this contract. CME Initial Performance Bond is: $4500 per contract. Maintenance level is: $3600. So we should not lose more than $900 per contract or we are not only wrong, but have to put in additional capital to keep the position. This is also 25% of the maintenance bond level. Hopefully we will not lose 4 in a row, but we certainly can.

Once position sees a 9 handle paper profit (50% of profit factor), we will cut our risk also by 50%. Cobra2 takes only closing  price for paper profit calculation. Cobra, however, considers intra-day extremes. With ES tagging 1380 today, we will exit if ES trades below 1361. The buy signal itself stays valid till ES trades completely below the range of P2T bottom - B1.

Positions:
LT1 Long ESM8 @ 1370.00

Geo

Disclaimer: For entertainment purpose only. I do not trade ES, but I do trade this methodology.


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geosing

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Reply with quote  #5 
 I think market tagged the stop level. So position closed for a 9+ handle loss.

Geo
PS: Unable to monitor the market due to health reasons. (Old immune system having a hard time coping with Poison Ivy toxin).
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